Metric Musings

2009 NFL Wins Over/Unders

2009-08-21T12:12:00.004-07:00

Yep, it's that time of year again, when Vegas sports books release their NFL win total over/unders. Actually, "that time of year again" was apparently way back in May, as that's when the excellent vegaswatch blog released it. But since you can't learn anything about teams in May, why not wait until now? Exactly. The lines have changed slightly since May, so we'll go with a more recent version. My picks are in cap beside Vegas' win total over/under number. As always play along at home- and not for money, because that would be gambling, and gambling- in case you didn't know- is illegal...

Arizona Cardinals 8.5 wins, UNDER

Atlanta Falcons 8.5 OVER

Baltimore Ravens 8.5 UNDER

Buffalo Bills 7.5 UNDER

Carolina Panthers 8.5 UNDER

Chicago Bears 8.5 OVER

Cincinnati Bengals 6.5 OVER

Cleveland Browns 7 UNDER

Dallas Cowboys 9 OVER

Denver Broncos 7.5 UNDER

Detroit Lions 5 UNDER

Green Bay Packers 9 OVER

Houston Texans 8 UNDER

Indianapolis Colts 10 UNDER

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 OVER

Kansas City Chiefs 6 UNDER

Miami Dolphins 7 OVER

Minnesota Vikings 9 OVER

New England Patriots 11.5 UNDER

New Orleans Saints 8.5 OVER

New York Giants 10 OVER

New York Jets 7 UNDER

Oakland Raiders 5.5 UNDER

Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 UNDER

Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 OVER

San Diego Chargers 9.5 OVER

San Francisco 49ers 7 UNDER

Seattle Seahawks 7.5 OVER

St Louis Rams 5.5 UNDER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 OVER

Tennessee Titans 9 OVER

Washington Redskins 8 UNDER

Ok now take your 10 best picks, and assign confidence points: the one you're MOST confident gets a 10, second most confident 9, etc all the way down to the one of your top 10 you're least confident about, which gets a one. Here's mine...

10. Seattle Seahawks 7.5 OVER
9. Washington Redskins 8 UNDER
8. San Diego Super Chargers 9.5 OVER
7. Cleveland Browns 7 UNDER
6. Arizona Cardinals 8.5 UNDER
5. Minnesota Vikings 9 OVER
4. Denver Broncos 7.5 UNDER
3. New York J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS! 7 UNDER
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 8 OVER
1. Atlanta Falcons 8.5 OVER

NFC Norris is a Three Team Race

2009-07-15T09:18:00.002-07:00

Is it football season yet? Can we pretend it is? Good lord July is a looooooooonnnnnnggggggg month, especially when the weather is less than stellar as it has been. So much for the "much warmer than average" summer we were supposed to get that would offset our "colder than average longer than hell" winter we just had. Thanks again weatherpeeps for that awesomely wrong prognostication. What other job can you be wrong more than 50% of the time (actually WAY more than 50%) and still keep it? Or just generally be terrible at your job and still have job security? I give you the following:
- politician
- VP of basketball operations for the Minnesota Timberwolves
- corporate higher-ups for AIG and Goldman Sachs (both made record profits last month, by the way. Your tax dollars hard at work!!)
- GM of the Clippers
- most auto mechanics (except my future father-in-law. He's very good and very honest)
- owner of a professional sports team
- Isiah Thomas doing anything related to basketball since he retired as a player

There's probably more, but that's what I come up with off the top of my head. ANYWAY, we're getting way off track here. I wanted to talk to you today about the NFC Norris race for 2009. As a Vikings fan, I would LOVE to agree with the national folks who tell you this is the Vikings division to lose now that Brett Favre will eventually be the starting QB. I'd love to tell you that, but I can't. It's not because I don't think Favre will help make the Vikes better- I do. I think they COULD be as good as a 12 win team this year if everything goes well.

But I think the Bears and Pack will also be very, very good. I probably don't have to convince you much about Da Bears, who if you haven't heard for the 2,182nd time have a new QB in Jay Cutler, who according to Bears fans is like a cross between Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and Jesus- IF Jesus had a laser rocket arm and a pretty-boy haircut. Sure, Cutler will be an upgrade over Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman, but that's like saying a sprained ankle is better than a broken ankle- isn't just about ANYTHING better than a broken ankle? Cutler has more ability and a better resume than the other two, but he has to run an offense he's never run, and there's still this minor little problem of him having no one to throw to but RB Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen.

Seriously, the Bears had probably the worst group of wide receivers in the league last year (wait, now that I think about it...yep, they DEFINITELY had the worst group of wide receivers last year, maybe the worst of the decade), and do you know what they did to upgrade the position in the offseason? Drafted Juaquin "Don't call me Julio or Enrique- Especially Enrique" Iglesias in the 3rd round and...got Earl Bennett back from injury!! YES! Problem solved! Crisis averted! Wait...who's Earl Bennett again?

Yeah so the Bears took their position of greatest weakness (unless we're counting "general manager" as a position) and decided to do nothing about it, which is a pretty good strategy - unless it's your position of greatest weakness. But hey, at least GM Jerry Angelo didn't also decide to kick the offense while it was down and not allow Devin Hester to return kicks and punts. Hester's only arguably the best in the history of the league at returns, so it would make zero sense to take away what Hester gave you there- which at worst was good field position because most teams were scared $&%^less to punt to him so they'd kick it 30 yards out of bounds or at best a touchdown when they did kick to him- and try to start him at wideout, where he was never even good enough to play wideout for his COLLEGE team let alone in the NFL. Good thing...what's that? Angelo did exaclty that? Probably not a shock he also thinks the receiving corps are just peachy, thanks.

Still in spite of Angelo, the Bears still went 9-7 last year, missing the playoffs by a game. I guess if I'm going to kill Angelo for some his bad moves, I have to praise him for taking the unheralded Forte in the second round, who had a monster rookie season (only averaged 3.9 ypc, but ran for 1,218 yards and eight TD's and caught 63 passes- which led the team- for another 477 yards and four more scores). Besides the big addition of Cutler, Angelo also inked former perenial all-pro OT Orlando Pace, who should be an upgrade over what they had there last year.

Defensively the Bears are always tough, and I don't see the departure of FS Mike Brown to Kansas City being much of a loss. Yes, he's very talented, and yes he played almost a full season last year- but that was his first season he was even remotely healthy since 2003, and for a guy as brittle as he's been (from 2004-2008 he played in a TOTAL of just 21 games- an average of just five a year), I wouldn't trust him to stay healthy again for long.

For the Green Bay Packers, the Cheeseheads, the Drunken Sconies...well it kills me to say this. It really, really does, but they were a much better team last season than their 6-10 record indicated, and I think they're heading for a HUGE bounce-back year. In 2008 a whopping seven of their 10 losses were by four points or less, and they outscored their opponents on the season 419-380. The 419 points were fifth highest in the league in 2008 behind only New Orleans (463), San Diego (439), Arizona (427), and the New York Football Giants (427). A high-scoring offense does not guarantee you a trip to the playoffs, of course, but it sure helps. The only real question with the offense is whether a patchwork offensive line can keep Rodgers in one piece and open some holes for Ryan Grant, who played really well down the stretch after an awful start. Ryan Grant played well down the stretch and the Cheeseheads might have the best receiving corps in football.

Defense is where the Pack struggled last year, and just to make sure they could spread the blame evenly they couldn't stop the run for the first half of the year, and then the pass the second half. The run game suffered from the start because monstrous (wait what's a bigger word than monstrous? Gi-nor-monstrous? Let's go with that) DT Grady Jackson, whose weight fluctuated somewhere between 400 pounds and the weight of all the dairy cows in Wisconsin (which he could probably eat in one sitting), was let go as a free agent, and just as gi-nor-monstrously disappointing DT Justin Harrell couldn't even begin to fill the void. Then all-pro middle linebacker Nick Barnett was lost for the season with a knee injury in the MInnesota game in week 10, followed by Atari Bigby with a shoulder injury in week 13 (who had already missed five games earlier in the year) and that was it for the pass defense.

Green Bay went hard after defensive help with their two first round picks taking DT BJ Raji at 9th overall (let's hope he works out better than Harrell has, Cheeseheads), and OLB Clay Matthews (did you know Matthews was a walk-on at USC? Did you know his dad played pro football? Did you? DID YOU?!? It's a great story- especially when we've already heard it 9,476 times before opening day even comes. He's an over-achiever. We get it, thanks. Loud and clear), and both could and should start in the opener at Lambeau agains the Bears. Add free agent FS Anthony Smith, and the Pack defense should have more depth and be much improved for 2009.

So as you can see, all three teams should be very good, and I don't see much separating them other than unpredictable injuries. Even the schedule doesn't really give an advantage, as 14 of their 16 games are against common opponents: six divisional games, and eight against the NFC West and AFC North. Their two remaining games:
Chicago: @ Atlanta, Philadelphia
Green Bay: @ Tampa, Dallas
Minnesota: @ Carolina, NY Giants

Chicago definitely gets the toughest draw, as I'm picking both Atlanta and Philly to win their divisions in 2009, and at the least both should be wild card contenders. Green Bay then gets the nod ahead of Minnesota as Tampa shouldn't be very good and the Cowboys are, well, they're the Cowboys- could be good but most likely will be overrated and very, very overhyped. I see Carolina falling off a little bit but will still be tough, as will the Giants.

Do I like the Vikes chances for 2009 with Favre? Nope, I LOVE their chances- this could be the best team the Purple's had since the 1998 team (NFL Network had an "America's Game" marathon on during the July 4th weekend, including their "Missing Rings" series about the five best teams who didn't win the Super Bowl. Of course the Vikes were on there twice- for the 1969 squad and the fabled and infamous 1998 team. Watching the hour long story on the 1998 team, I am reminded how much I LOVED that team- even Denny Green. But man it hurts when it gets to the end and we're once again reminded that a) Gary Anderson missed a chip shot and b) Denny Green decided to take a knee heading into halftime, leaving the most potent offense in the history of the sport- at least until the 2007 Patriots came along- on the sidelines. I miss Randy Moss, but I do not miss Denny Green. Thanks Denny. Keep taking that high road), but if they do win the division it's going to be much tougher than most folks seem to think.

The Monday Musings

2009-07-13T07:31:00.003-07:00

We've reached baseball's all-star weekend which means two things: less than 3 weeks until NFL training camps open!!! And about a month until the kiddies start showing up for college football!!! Good times are just around the bend. Until then a few musings on the world o' sports...

...I didn't watch UFC 100 and I doubt I'd watch UFC 101 or 102 or 103...well, you get the idea. I'm not an MMA fan but I did hear and did read about Brock Lesnar's antics and comments and if I'm a non-MMA fan and I'm clicking on stories to find out what happened, that can't be a bad thing, right? I agree with Dana White that this is NOT the WWE and Lesnar needs to tone it down, but at the same time White's sport is gaining more attention, and potentially a GREAT villian. And all sports are better with a great villian.

...last week Sid Hartman was banging the drum for the Twins to deal for Pirates 2B Freddy Sanchez...and for once I agree with him. Sanchez is maybe league-average defensively, and would be a drop from Brendan Harris or Matt Tolbert or Nicky Punto or whomever they're running out there now. But offensively he'd be a huge upgrade (I personally prefer Harris at short with Little Nicky Punto coming off the bench. Yes Punto has been very good defensively but he's a zero, or less than that, at the plate) as he's currently posting a .316/.356/.478 (for an OPS of .834- which would not only be 5th best on the Twins behind Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Cuddy, but is also 4th best among all MLB second basemen), and would give them a solid #2 hitter for the first time in, well, who was the last good 2 hitter the Twinkies had? Exactly. Of course, this would cost the Twins a couple of prospects AND would mean they'd have to take on more money, so the chances of it happening are probably slim and none. Oh well. If only they had a brand new tax-payer paid cash cow of a stadium coming next year that will give the Twins budget a HUGE financial boost.

...speaking of Minnesota teams out of touch with reality, how about the Timberwolves and GM David Kahn playing hardball with Ricky Rubio and trying to convince us they don't need him? Really David? Have you looked at your team's finances from last season? Because thanks to this article on cbssports.com, I have- and the numbers do NOT look good for you. CBS and NBA writer Ken Berger got ahold of the NBA's 2008 league-wide revenue report, and the results aren't pretty, especially for the Wolves. These numbers are not the inflated ticket sales number teams try to throw at you- these are how many people actually paid AND showed up to watch games. The Wolves were second worst in ticket revenue (ahead of only Memphis) and one of just five franchises who made less than $500k per home game (the league average was just under a million). They were also second worst in fans per game at just 8,969 and what makes this even worse is that the Wolves gave out an average of 5,205 TICKETS PER GAME!!!!! Do the math on that, and you had only 3,764 people a night show up who ACTUALLY PAID FOR THEIR TICKET?!?!?!? That is...that is...yeah I don't even have words for that.

Which makes it even more mind-blowing that the Wolves didn't take Rubio and Steph Curry with their top 2 picks last month, and just start throwing the full-court press at Rubio about how great his life and career will be in Minnesota playing alongside Big Al Jefferson, Kevin Love and Curry. Hire a coach who plays uptempo small-ball like Mike D'Antoni or Don Nelson and score 120 a night. Who cares if you're giving up 130 some nights (ok a lot of nights)? They'd suddenly be a young team with tons of potential and-gasp!- THEY'D BE REALLY FUN TO WATCH!?!?!? You're telling me you wouldn't pay for Wolves tickets to watch those four run up and down all night?

Instead, Kahn treats Rubio like he doesn't need him, drafts another point guard he couldn't possibly play with as insurance on Rubio, and now is sitting saying he really doesn't care if the kid stays in Spain for two more years? Great way to treat the one player from this draft other than Blake Griffin who could get your fanbase excited. HOW IS THAT A PLAN?!?? HOW IS THAT A GOOD IDEA?!?!!?!? Instead of trying to inspire and excite your fanbase by bringing Rubio and Curry to town, you're going to piss off the 3,764 paying customers you have left? What is Kahn trying to do- find a new and even lower rock bottom? Does he want to get out-sold by the Lynx? Owner Glen Taylor was running $5 upper bowl season ticket packages, and $15 for the lower bowl- and STILL no one wants to buy them right now. Had they drafted Rubio and Curry and showered Rubio with love, adoration, and more love (and as the Sports GUy said in his Friday mailbag, they could sign Juan Carlos Navaro or even deal for Marc Gasol or something so he's got a few Spanish buddies to hang out with) Minnesota's pro basketball fans would be excited about the upcoming season and would be BUYING TICKETS! Instead, most of us are sitting here waiting for the Rubio thing to play out, and we're expecting it to end badly. Why? Because it's the Timberwolves and it's what the fans have come to expect since 1989.

...One other thing about Kahn, since apparently this is turning into an anti-Kahn Monday Musings- his rationale for why they took Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry is not only ridiculous, but it makes it look like he thinks the average basketball fan knows nothing about the game. Kahn has said in interviews, on both the Dan Patrick Show and Dan Barreiro's show (and possibly also in print with the Strib), that not only did they like Flynn better than Curry, but that since Curry was selling himself before the draft as a natural point guard, then for those questioning him taking two point guards, how would it be any different if they had taken Curry? Yep, according to Kahn, we're supposed to ignore the literally hundreds of hours of gametape we have on Curry that shows he's a lethal scorer who can also be a team's primary ballhandler (which in simpler terms we like to call a "combo guard") and instead believe his agent who says he's the next Jason Kidd. Really Kahn? You're telling us you're basing your assessment of Curry's NBA potential off of what his agent says instead of his game tape? Honestly, Kahn apparently assumes that basketball fans, and especially those in Minnesota, have an basketball IQ of less than zero, because you'd have to be really, really dumb to watch the college careers of Flynn and Curry and believe that not only are both of them true point guards, but that Flynn (who is 5'10 and can't shoot) is a much better fit for Rubio than Curry. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome once again to the David Kahn Era! And we didn't think it could get any worse than Kevin McHale.

Kahn-man?

2009-06-26T07:02:00.004-07:00

This must be what the guys in "The Hangover" felt like. Waking up bewildered, seeing everything in shambles, missing a buddy, and wondering just what the hell happened last night?

Timberwolves fans can empathize. Just like for a bachelor party in Vegas, last night began with the anticipation and excitement that anything was possible. Would the Wolves deal up to get the clear second-best player in the draft in Ricky Rubio? Or would they stay at 5 and 6 and take what falls to them? The Clips started off the night by actually doing the right thing in taking Blake Griffin. Memphis was up next- were they going to deal the pick? Keep it? Were the Wolves dealing up to get Rubio? The Grizz kept it and because they're the Grizz, they take Hasheem Thabeet, a guy who me and plenty of others think is going to be a Shawn Bradley-level bust. I text to Jer "Thank you Memphis!"

The Stolen Sonics pick third, and here's where the Rubio dream is going to die- GM Sam Presti seems to have made the right move everytime...except he takes James Harden! ANother guy who is going to be a bust! I text again to Jer "Thank you Stolen Sonics!!" Just one team between Sota and Rubio- and unfortunately it's Sacramento, who is rumored to love Rubio, and even worse, Rubio apparently loves the idea of playing in Sacto. And so they take...Tyreke Evans!

HOLY $&%^&!!!! WE"RE GETTING RICKY RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Wolves make the second easiest pick in the draft and take Rubio!!! YES! WE GOT HIM! CALL THE TARGET CENTER! GET YOUR TICKETS! WE'VE FINALLY GOT ANOTHER STAR!! VIVA EL RUBIO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And to make it even better, we're going to get Steph Curry at 6! Steph Curry! Two of the most exciting players in the draft on the Timberwolves! If not that, we can deal down for somebody who wants Curry and grab DeMar DeRozan of USC. We're set! Hello promise! Hello bright future! Hello light at the end of the tunnel!

Then things when you least expect it, something went horribly wrong. GM David Kahn takes another point guard Jonny Flynn of Syracuse. Ummm...

WWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

I guess that light at the end of the tunnel was a train, not hope. You cannot play two point guards, one who could be the best passer to come into the league in a decade, and the other who's not even 6 feet tall, together. You just can't. Rubio and Curry would have been a GREAT combo, but neither Rubio or Flynn can shoot a lick. It'd be like the Vikings having the 5th and 6th overall picks in the NFL draft and taking Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford. You cannot play Rubio and Flynn together anymore than you can play Sanchez and Stafford at the same time. It just doesn't make sense!

In interviews last night and this morning, Kahn claims they CAN play together, that he's not planning to trade either guy, and that they can absolutely work in the new NBA where guards are now allowed to run wild, even going so far as using the example of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Really David? We're going to use a two-time championship backcourt of two possible Hall-of-Famers (Thomas is a lock and Dumars an outside chance) that played IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ERA?!?!?!? Thomas was one of the best guards EVER, and Dumars, while he didn't have a great outside shot was bigger, stronger and much more of a traditional two guard than Flynn will ever be. I LOVE Rubio, and like Flynn, but not on the same team.

So what now? I was fine with dealing Lawson and Calathes (according to the great Wolves blog canabishoopus.com, the future #1 the Wolves will get from Denver for Lawson actually belongs to Charlotte, but has plenty of protection: top 12 protected in 2010, top 10 protected in 2011, top 8 protected in 2012, top 3 protected in 2013, and unprotected in the 2014.), and maybe what all this really amounts to is Kahn believing he took the two best players available and will sort it out as we go. Fine, except you could have taken Curry instead of Flynn and not only keep the same mentality, but actually had a functioning backcourt.

Fred Hoiberg was on KFAN this morning with PA and Charch, and said the phones have been ringing off the hook with interests and trade requests about Rubio, yet maintained they hope and want and plan on Rubio playing here this season. I hope so. The only thing that could make all of this worse as a Wolves fan is if Rubio falls into their lap at 5 and they end up dealing him. I would hope Wolves fans would revolt with torches and pitchforks if Kahn and crew don't do everything humanly possible to make sure Rubio is here this season. If you let him use the excuse that his buyout is too much and he stays in Spain for another year or two, then you failed. Failed. You don't use the fifth pick in the NBA draft to stash a guy in Europe for a year or two. And you don't draft Jonny Flynn just in case Rubio doesn't come over. Failed.

After the first couple of weeks of David Kahn, I'm very nervous. I expressed this during the hiring process when two very qualified candidates, Ted Lindsey in San Antonio and Tom Penn in Portland, pulled out of the search process. I wondered then why two guys who have dreamed about being GM's would pass up what looks to be a great opportunity to shape a team with plenty of assets, picks and cap room exactly as they wanted it. What were we not being told? What was going on behind the scenes that were driving these guys away? I opined at the time that Taylor was telling his candidates that they had to keep McHale. Dan Barreiro has said recently a very good source is telling him that Rob Moore's son has become heavily involved and is even making decisions, which cuts into the power of the would-be GM.

Whatever it was that was keeping qualified candidates away, we ended up with David Kahn, a guy who had never ran a team (you'll hear he was GM of the Pacers, but Donnie Walsh ran that team. Kahn had no real power there AND DIDN"T EVEN LIVE IN INDIANA AT THE TIME!!!!!!!!!!) and was about as unqualified as McHAle was when he got the job. Yet the guy acted like he was Red Auerbach or Jerry West, and talked to the media like he was trying to explain quantam physics to a bunch of four year olds. Can you be an a**hole and be successful? Of course you can, but it might help to DO something first before acting like you're the smartest basketball man who's ever lived! He took way too long to make the no-brainer decision to fire McHale, then made a nice deal with Washington, had Rubio fall in his lap...and then took another point guard, which apparently has only infuriated Rubio. Brilliant.

It should be an interesting next few months: will Rubio or Flynn be traded? Who else is getting dealt? What will the team look like at the end of October? For now, Kahn gets an incomplete grade for his first draft, because I still cannot and will not believe he truly thinks Rubio and Flynn will play together. We shall see.

I know it's early, and I know there's still so much that can and will happen, but I just get the feeling that as a Wolves fan, going from McHale to Kahn is like going from the Titanic to the Hindenburg. It feels great at first to be free and safe and be somewhere different and exciting...and yet you can't fight the notion that something feels strangely familiar.

Gee Wiz!

2009-06-24T06:26:00.002-07:00

Well then. David Kahn has gotten to work and pulled off his first trade. What does it mean? We won't know that until Thursday night is finished, but we do know Kahn was serious about shaking up the roster. In dealing starting guards Mike Miller (1 yr left at about $9 million) and Randy Foye (1 yr left on his rookie deal) to the Wizards for Etan Thomas (bye!), Darius Songalia (see ya!), Oleksiy Pecherov (I don't even know you) and the #5 pick, the Wolves are now the team to watch at tomorrow night's draft. They now hold FOUR 1st round picks at #5, 6, 18, and 28, and it makes zero sense to hang onto all four of them.

I hope- I really, really, REALLY hope- that Kahn's plan is to deal two of those to Memphis for the #2 pick to take Ricky Rubio. I know the Wolves have been rumored to love Hasheem Thabeet (and as you know, I'm on record as saying Thabeet will be a bust), but it doesn't make much sense to me to deal both your starting guards away and then take a center with your top pick. This is NOT a good draft and it's not deep, and after Griffin and Rubio it's filled with nothing but question marks. You're not getting Griffin away from the Clippers (what kind of world are we living in where the Clippers might actually do the smart thing?), so if you have an opportunity to get the other "as close to a sure thing as you can get" guy, you go get him.

If they have to give up 5 and 6, then make it happen. If you have to give up 6 and Kevin Love, or one of those two picks and another player not named Al Jefferson, you do it. The Wolves do not need four more rookies from a weak draft, they need a sure thing to go with Jefferson. They also should try and get Rubio's buddy Marc Gasol included in the deal. It would ease the culture shock from Spain to Minnesota, and if you start winning, you've got a chance to keep them around a long time.

After that, I'd package the rest of your picks to climb back into the top 12 to take either Earl Clark from Louisville or DeJuan Blair from Pitt. Clark's really the only other guy in this draft besides Griffin and Rubio with all-star potential, although his chances of reaching it are much less. Still, in a draft this week, I'd roll the dice on potential compared to what else is available.

They could always stay at 5 and 6 and take Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, or Demar DeRozan, but I'd much prefer to see them grab Rubio.

Guys I don't want to see in a Wolves uniform? I mentioned Thabeet and BJ Mullens last week, who are second and third on my "guaranteed to be busts" list. Who's #1? None of than Gonzaga's Austin Daye. As a Gonzaga fan I watched plenty of Zags games last year, and finding Daye in those games was like playing "Where'd Waldo?" Yes he's 6'11 with a smooth jumper and good handles- BUT HE'S SOFT!! In the WCC on a Zags team who gave him every opportunity to be The Man, Daye was practically non-existent. Any team drafting him is throwing away a first round pick. He's #1 on my list of busts (BJ Mullens is second, Thabeet third)- he looks great in workouts but has no passion, intensity, or aggressiveness on the court.

I had wondered why Daye bothered to stay in the draft and not go back to Gonzaga and prove himself, but somebody on sportingnews.com (I read it yesterday and now can't find the article) made a great point- what if Daye KNOWS this is what he is? What if he's self-aware enough to know that he IS soft and if he goes back to Gonzaga he's going to get exposed as a fraud, whereas this year in the weakest draft in a decade, he's guaranteed first round money?

Again, stay the hell away from Austin Daye. Please!

Ranking the Point Guards

2009-06-23T08:14:00.004-07:00

Two days to go until the 2009 NBA Draft, when hopefully the fortunes of the Minnesota Timberwolves will start changing for the better. This is a point guard-heavy draft, which is convenient considering the Wolves are in desparate need of one. Last season Randy Foye proved he's much better off as a two guard (although I still believe on a good team he's a sixth man), and Kevin Ollie and Bassy Telfair proved what we already knew- neither should be starting in the league.

There's been a wide range of opinions on who the best point guards are, so I might as well throw my two cents into the discussion and rank the top 10...

1. Ricky Rubio, 6'4, 18, Spain
He's been called everything from the second coming of Pistol Pete Maravich to a sure-fire NBA bust. Rubio's true potential lies somewhere in between, but I can't believe so many people are questioning this kid's abilities. He's the same kid who was so impressive in the Olympics, and unlike any other high first round prospect in this draft, has been effectively running a team in one of Europe's top leagues. His basketball IQ is off the charts and he makes everyone around him better. And he's 18 YEARS OLD!!! Who cares if he can't shoot right now and doesn't have off-the-charts athleticism? The jump shot will come with age, and if at 18 he's already starting and excelling against guys 5-15 years older than him, he's going to figure out how to excel in the NBA. To me he's unquestionably the second best player in this draft, and I would love- LOVE- to see David Kahn trade up to get him. Good lord, I might even buy Wolves tickets if he did.

2. Tyreke Evans, 6'5, 19, Memphis
If the Wolves can't get Rubio then Evans is far and away my next choice. He's not going to have a problem scoring in the NBA, and if he can improve his jumper, he's going to be scary. At 6'5 he's big enough to guard either backcourt spot, and will be ready to start and contribute from day one. He doesn't have the most upside in the draft but other than Blake Griffin is the most likely to fulfill his potential.

3. Eric Maynor, 6'3, 22, VCU
I rank him this high because he's got good size at the point (well, he's got good height. At 165 he's going to need to gain some strength), and is ready to run an NBA team right now. Maynor will probably never be an all-star, but will be an effective floor general for the next decade, a la Mookie Blaylock.

4. Ty Lawson, 6'0, 21, North Carolina
ESPN.com basketball stats guru John Hollinger had him as the second highest ranked player in the draft behind Griffin. Yes he's barely 6'0, but he was the dictionary definition of efficient. Handling pressure (both on the court and from the fans and media) will be no sweat for a kid who just led the nation's most glamorous program to a national title averaging 30 mins per game 53.2 FG%/47.2% 3Pt/79.8% FT for 16.6 pts, 2.1 stls, and an unreal 6.6/1.9 assist/turnover ratio. The only question is whether he's too small to play in the NBA, but if the T-Pups can't get Rubio, I'd love to see them take Evans at 6 and Lawson at 18.

5. Jonny Flynn, 6'0, 20, Syracuse
I loved watching Flynn at The Cuse, but he's definitely not a true point guard. If he was 6'3 or 6'4 he'd be challenging Rubio as the second player taken, but at 5'11 on a tall day, he might be more of a sixth man scorer than starter, However, guys like Nate Robinson and Aaron Brooks are encouraging examples for Flynn's success.

6. Stephen Curry, 6'3, 20, Davidson
I'm just not sure Curry will be more than an off-the-bench scoring specialist. Yes he can score in his sleep, but at barely 6'3 and rail thin, is he strong and quick enough to be anything more than a spot-up shooter off screens? And who is he guarding? If he's going to an up-tempo, wide open system like the Knicks or Warriors he might have a chance, but in a conventional half court offense I think he struggles. And considering that the NBA playoffs always come down to a grind-it-out half court style, well let's just say I'm skeptical at best. If the Wolves take him, I just hope I'm wrong.

7. Jrue Holiday, 6'4, 19, UCLA
So just what is he? A true point or a two guard? A combo guard? Neither? Was he a poor fit for UCLA coach Ben Howland's system, or does he just not have a true position to play? If the first five are gone, I'd take him as a true point and see what happens.

8. Patrick Mills, 6'0, 20, St. Mary's
After a strong Olympic performance for Australia followed by a dominant first semester for St Mary's, Mills was playing his way into the lottery. Then a broken foot sidelined him until the tail end of the year, and when he returned, he clearly wasn't all the way back. Had he returned to St. Mary's and stayed healthy next season he would have been back in the lottery conversation for 2010, but by staying in the draft, somebody is going to get an absolute steal late in the first round.

9. Jeff Teague, 6'2, 20, Wake Forest
Which Teague would an NBA team get- the one who exploded onto the national scene by leading the Demon Deacons to the #1 spot in the polls midway through the season? Or the guy who disappeared from then on?

10. Brandon Jennings, 6'1, 19, Italy
After his ridiculous comments about Rubio and from everything I've read on his attitude, I want no part of Jennings. Sure, he's freakishly athletic and quick, but he's a me-first guy who has a much better chance of alienating his teammates instead of bringing them together.

KAHN YOU DIG IT?

2009-06-22T12:43:00.003-07:00

(Said in my best Shaquille O'Neal voice)

Well, can you? After 15 mostly excrutiating years, Kevin McHale is finally, totally, completely, and absolutely out of the Minnesota Timberwolves organization. He is now free to spend all of his time fishing, hunting and sitting by the lake at his cabin nestled somewhere in the Northwoods...which I suppose really won't be any different for him that when he was supposedly working for the Wolves (and you thought I couldn't resist one last chance to take a McHale cheap shot?)

His replacement is none other than Mr. David Kahn! Now, now, let's settle down, everyone. You there, stop printing those Timberwolves championship t-shirts! You, with the "16 Months Til A Title!" hat, take it easy. Let's all take a deep breath, allow for one last giggle that McHale is no longer involved/running the Minnesota Timberwolves, and try to put some things in perspective here.

First, did I mention Kevin McHale is gone? Oh, right I did. Ok apparently I need to calm down too. But just because he is doesn't mean the Wolves road to an NBA title is paved with glory, riches, and hopefully a watchable basketball team. Mr. Kahn has said some interesting, provocative, and dare I say it, logical things about the state of the basketball club, but let's not forget that Glen Taylor is still in charge and that other than NOT re-hiring McHale, Kahn really hasn't done anything yet.

Kahn has promised big changes and a contending team in the next 16 months, and if he pulls it off, he should run for mayor of Minneapolis, governor of the state, and leader of the free world. Things GM say at press conferences are a lot like running for office- once you've got the job, those campaign promises can go right out the window. While Kahn's latest comments to the Strib are refreshing and point towards a different direction (ie- competency), they're not going to mean much if he doesn't do much.

Then again, at least he's saying something different and refreshing, which we never got with McHale other than "do you know how hard it is to make a trade in the NBA these days?", "do you know how hard it is to fly fish with one hand and talk on my cell with the other?" or "my laptop battery always dies after the first five hours in the fishing boat."

From Kahn we actually got an honest assessment of where the T-Pups are at: that this team is NOT a contender right now (at this time last year McHale and Hoiberg were telling anyone who would listen that the Wolves should win 40 games and compete for a playoff spot), that on a title contender Al Jefferson would only be the second best player and that Kevin Love would be a 6th man (even I don't think I'd got that far but still), and that nobody on the roster is off-limits for trades.

These are all things I've been dying to hear from the 600 1st Avenue Country Club (as KFAN's Dan Barreiro calls it), and is hopefully the beginning of big changes and better days ahead. However, let's not forget that Glen Taylor is still running the team and calling the shots- it's because of him McHale lasted 15 years and was allowed to make so many ghastly decisions. Has the "Country Club" really been shut down, or have they just accepted some new members?

We'll start to get an idea this Thursday at the NBA draft, as Kahn will have every opportunity to make some moves, and reshape the roster as he sees fit. He'll hire a coach (which is about the most overrated part of his job- honestly, the difference between NBA head coaches is so neglible, especially for a team in the Wolves' situation. We saw in the playoffs what good and bad coaching can do, but really it doesn't matter whether it's Sam Mitchell, Mark Jackson, Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach or John Wooden coaching in 2009-10, because it's not going to matter one bit unless Kahn puts a lot more talent on the roster), then dive into free agency shortly after.

Will we have a 50 win playoff contender in 16 months as he promises? The chances are about as good as Tavaris Jackson ever becoming a competent QB (meaning they're slim to none), but if Kahn can reshape the roster and at least put a team out there that shows the promise of the playoffs, that would be enough to satisfy me. And after 15 years of McHale, we know that would be more than enough to satisfy Glen Taylor.

Answering Some Questions about the Lakers and Magic

2009-06-15T08:24:00.003-07:00

With the Lakers wrapping up their 15th NBA title, the season might be officially over, but we're far from done with the NBA. The June 25th draft is just 10 days away, and free agency begins July 1. There's a lot of questions as we enter the offseason, and because I'm just that helpful, I thought I'd provide some answers. You might be sick of them already, but there's plenty to talk about just with our two NBA Finals participants...

IS KOBE BRYANT ONE OF THE FIVE BEST PLAYERS OF ALL-TIME?
Nope, he's not but he has now cemented himself as one of the 10 best player ever. Currently I'd put him at 9th, with a chance to move up with a few more years of dominance and another title or two. Who's ahead of Kobe, you ask? Obviously Michael Jordan as the clear #1, then in some order Russell, Magic, Bird, Wilt, Jerry West, Kareem and Shaq. Yes, Shaq. Both he and Kobe now have four titles, but the big difference for me is that Shaq was the best player on his team for three of four championships- with those three coming when he was with Kobe.

IS PHIL JACKSON THE GREATEST COACH IN NBA HISTORY?
He has to be, doesn't he? Red Auerbach did win nine, and an incredible eight in a row, and was a pioneer both as a coach and GM, but to me Phil winning ten titles with two different teams in a 30-team league with a salary cap and free agency is more impressive than what Auerbach did as a coach. And don't give me this crap about "well Phil always had great players." OF COURSE HE HAD GREAT PLAYERS!!! You have to in order to win a championship! And yes, he's had some epic talents like MJ, Shaq, Kobe, Pippen etc, but he earned the right and respect to coach those guys because he was able to take Jordan and company to their first title. Doug Collins is/was a good NBA coach and a VERY knowledgable basketball guy, but he couldn't get Jordan and his teammates to play together and get them a title. But Phil did- then a second, then a third. Once he had those he had the thing that is seemingly impossible to earn from NBA players- respect. Guys would take less to play for him and players who might not have listened to others (Rodman, Kobe, and Shaq to name three), respected and listened to him. Phil Jackson EARNED that by what he did in Chicago. And yes, he's had some uber-talened teams, but especially his Lakers clubs, it's not like they've steamrolled their way to titles. Yeah you might fluke your way to one title (say, if the Magic had won this year), but 10 titles? You can't win and not be a good coach.

WILL KOBE OPT OUT OF HIS CONTRACT?
Only if he's an idiot. He is in the PERFECT situation and if he ever even thinks of leaving he's an idiot. LA is the only town in America that loves him, and he's clearly the best player on what will clearly be the best team next season, and one of the best the year after. What else could he possibly want? All season, and really since he forced the Shaq trade back in 2004, Kobe has lied to us that winning a title with O'Neal meant nothing. Then he wins it last night and yeah, I'd say he cares just a little. The man obviously cares about his legacy and his standing in history, and if he wants to add to it, he's going to stay in LA through the end of his current contract in the summer of 2011.

WHO IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE LAKERS TO RESIGN- TREVOR ARIZA OR LAMAR ODOM?
Lamar Odom. No really, he is. Yes, Ariza is a nice young player at 24 who does a lot of things the Lakers need- defense, rebounding, and hitting the occassional shot. He's athletic with an improving stroke and COULD develop into a solid third option on this team. But you have to emphasize the "COULD" part here, because he's not a finished product. Yes, Odom turns 30, but they do not win the title without him, and their chances drop if he doesn't resign. He averaged close to a double-double, and is capable of scoring on anybody when he has to, yet seems comfortable being the third wheel on this team behind Kobe and Pau Gasol. While Ariza could be a nice player, I think they can find other guys to fill the things he does, whereas Odom is PERFECT for this team for the next couple of years. The beauty for the Lakers (or disgusting for anybody outside of LA?) is that it sounds like they're going to get both guys back because Odom loves LA so much that he's willing to take less than $10 million a year to resign (played for $11.4 million this year), giving the team room to resign Ariza too.

WHAT ARE ORLANDO'S CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FINALS IN 2010?
Slim to none, and if you think it's more you're kidding yourself. They're going to lose Turkoglu to free agency because somebody will overpay for him. The Magic can't match without going well into the luxury tax (expected to be somewhere around $65 million. And yes that's more than this year's $58 million cap number. You won't see the cap drop because of the economy until the 2010-11 season)- something they're just not going to do. According to hoopshype.com's salary index, Orlando's cap number will be somewhere around $63 million, which gives them no wiggle room to not only resign Turkoglu- but find someone to replace him. The Magic are clearly not the same team without him, even with a healthy Jameer Nelson back, and there's nobody on that roster- not Pietrius, Courtney Lee or anybody else- who's can do the things Turkoglu did that made Orlando so good this season. They don't have a small forward with his size and shooting ability or a power forward with size and any ability. With KG hurt, this was Orlando's one shot at a title and they blew it. They'll make the playoffs next year, but I'm not even sure they win their division, let alone make it back it to the Finals or conference finals.

SHOULD THE LAKERS SEND KEVIN GARNETT A THANK YOU CARD FOR THEIR 2009 TITLE?
Absolutely. So should Orlando just for getting to the Finals. After what we saw during these playoffs, Boston with a healthy KG and a much-improved Rajan Rondo would have stormed through the Eastern Conference and knocked off the Lakers yet again. The Celtics could had the muscle down low to handle Howard, and with KG and others the defenders to guard Lewis and Turkoglu. On offense, Pierce and KG give Turkoglu and Lewis fits and Rondo destroys- I repeat DESTROYS- Rafer Alston and Anthony Johnson. Boston wins that series in five. Against Cleveland we'd actually get a better series because the Cavs match up much better (aka Mike Brown doesn't have to adjust his lineup to be successful), but the Celtics would still be the better team and win in six or seven. And against the Lakers, nothing's changed from last year except Rondo is substantially better, and like against Orlando he would have destroyed Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar and anybody else. He also would have fouled Fisher before he crossed half-court at the end of game four instead of allowing him to saunter up to the three-point line and bury the game-tying three. And besides Rondo, it would have been the same recipe as the 2008 Finals- beat the crap out of the Euro- and Euro-styled- Lakers team and they walk away with the title. Honestly, both Kobe and Phil better thank KG in their hall-of-fame induction speeches, because if he's healthy, they both don't get this title which took their careers and reputations to another level historically.

The Monday Musings

2009-06-15T06:35:00.004-07:00

With the Lakers doing the inevitable last night (a game earlier than I thought. Stern is really slipping in his ability to influence the outcome of games and series. He needed to extend this series, but he lets the Lakers roll over the Magic on the road?! A travesty! An outrage! Next time Stern needs to either a) assign "refs better suited to extending the series" b) assign a coach better suited to extending the series than Stan Van Gundy or c) get someone to teach Dwight Howard some post moves. Really, any at all besides dunking or putbacks on offensive rebounds), and the Penguins pulling the game seven upset of Detwah Friday night, we have officially entered the barren stretch on the sports calendar known as Nothing But Baseball (or NBB if you will- and I will), which stretches from mid-June to late August. No real games of any kind except baseball from now until late August when college football starts. Sure, we'll have the NBA draft in a few weeks, NBA free agency starting July 1, NFL teams will start reporting for camp middle to end of next month, and then the kiddies will report in August for college football. So we have a solid month before there's really anything of substance to talk about for football, and two months before any real games begin.

In the meantime? Um, yeah good question. I'll be trying to figure out the "6 in-6 out" NFL playoff teams, which will include the Super Secret Sleeper nobody will see coming. Last year's winners were Baltimore (which I called- although I doubted it would happen if Troy Smith didn't win the starting QB job because obviously you cannot win with a rookie QB! Can't be done! We now know better) and Atlanta (nope!). Again, this needs to be a team nobody sees coming so Seattle is out of the running (although barring another horrible rash of injuries they should win the NFC West), and Kansas City might too (I know this is already Bill Simmons' early front runner for SSS, so we'll see how much coverage they get with Cassell and coach Josh McDaniel there. They'll definitely be better and could even win a division that won't be very good- once again I am not a fan of San Diego or Denver- but it depends on how much media coverage they get before the season. I've actually already got a front-runner of my own, and am feeling pretty good about it, but better do some more research before making the final decision. Two things I can guarantee you- it won't be Detroit or Oakland. It will never be Detroit or Oakland as long as the Fords and Al Davis are running those teams.

I also plan on studying up hardcore on Big Ten football. I'm taking my role very seriously this year over on Jer's Gopher football blog and plan to know everything humanly possible about the Big Ten. College football has officially taken over as my favorite sport on earth, so it won't be hard to really throw myself into it.

Otherwise? We can look forward to Blake Griffin going #1 to the Clippers (even they can't screw that one up. Also, people are making WAY too big a deal of Zach Randolph screwing things up there. He has two more years left on his deal, so yes, he's not going to be a good influence on Griffin as a rookie, but he should be dealable the next season, so you're only looking at 1-2 years of Zach Randolph. Not the end of the world, people, not the end of the world), Memphis doing something dumb (like not taking Ricky Rubio second), Minnesota doing something dumb (I don't think requires further elaboration, does it?), and Portland and the Stolen Sonics making smart picks.

NBA free agency and trades? Will be much ado about nothing, as usual. A lot of teams need to do something but the economy will probably only force those way over the cap to make moves to get under, not to make themselves demonstrably better. There's very few teams with a ton of cap space, and fewer willing to spend it. Detroit will basically have their choice of Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom, or whichever free agent they want. Sounds like Phoenix is serious about moving Shaq, and so far there's rumors that both Cleveland and Dallas are very interested. And really, why wouldn't they be? I mean why wouldn't any team be interested in an overweight, overpaid (scheduled to make $20,000,000 next year!!!) 37 year old center whose body can no longer handle playing a full season and who would most definitely require a contract extension through his age 40 season if you deal for him? What a deal! Where can I sign up for that?!?

Seriously, what is Cleveland thinking? They did't lose to Orlando because Big Z, Ben Wallace, or Side Show Bob couldn't guard Dwight Howard one-on-one, they lost because a) Mike Brown refused to put smaller players on the floor who could guard Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu and b) Cleveland just wasn't that good. They weren't. We were all fooled into thinking the Cavs were a great team because of their regular season record, yet they were exposed badly by Orlando for having a subpar supporting cast around Lebron. The Cavs need more talent around Bronbron, and I just don't see how Shaq does that. There has to be better options available via trade to give him help than Shaq.

Anyway, so other than rumors and rumors and more rumors, there won't be much of substance to talk about for the next two solid freaking months!! Good thing it's summer and judging by the weather today, Minnesota might actually get some real summer weather. Let the season of NBB begin!

The Monday Musings- NBA Finals Edition

2009-06-08T09:34:00.002-07:00

I have not mused about the NBA (non-draft stuff) in quite some time, but my lovely fiance and I got back from her folks place in Wisconsin just in time for me to catch all of the 4th quarter and overtime. A few thoughts...

...I'm going to go ahead and guarantee two things: the Lakers will win this series, and they will do so at home. While I don't think there's anyway possible the Magic will win four of the next five games (Sure, the Heat overcame a 2-0 hole in the 2006 Finals, but they had three things going for them: a rising superstar in Dwyane Wade, a rising superstar in Wade who attacked the basket almost anytime he had the ball, and a Stern Mandate to start calling fouls on Dallas as soon as Wade entered the building. Sure, Orlando has the rising superstar in Howard, but he's not the offensive force Wade is, and none of his teammates go to the rim), let's just say the NBA will do everything it can to assign the refs most suited to making sure the Magic will get two of the next three at home. As Bill Simmons has said time and again, the NBA isn't rigging games as much as assigning the worst refs possible for the situation to try and influence the outcome. The Magic are not as good as the Lakers, but they're definitely good enough to take two of three at home. Especially when you consider that while the Magic shot better last night than game 1 (they were 33% from 3 but only 41% from the field), they still have one of those "everything they throw up will go in) kind of games coming, and are going to get some, um, "help" from the refs.

...Courtney Lee's alley-oop miss at the end of regulation was a tough shot. His momentum was carrying him under the basket with Pau Gasol coming over to block the shot, but as an NBA player, he HAS to make that shot. Has to. If it was a better known player- Howard, Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu- who had taken that shot, they'd be getting murdered in the media and on the interweb. Tough shot yes, but not impossible and with a perfect pass from Turkoglu, he HAS to make that one.

...this season is setting up as the Perfect Storm for Kobe Doin' Work because he's going to get his all-important title as the Best Player on His Own Team just as his window of opportunity is closing shut. I have not watched much of the NBA playoffs, so I'm probably telling people who have something they already know: Kobe is now just a jumpshooter. The thing that stood out most to me last night was how Kobe doesn't get to the rim and finish anymore. Instead of blowing by guys and finishing in traffic, Kobe now uses the drive to set up his jumper. It's effective, but it obviously decreases his efficiency. On the occassions when he can drive past somebody, instead of going over, around or through the help defenders that slide over, he's now pulling up for jumpers or floaters. Take his shot just before the end of regulation: in the old days, he blows by Turkoglu, elevates over Howard and either dunks and/or lays it up and draws the foul to boot. He hits the clutch free throws and game over. But last night, after he got by the slow-footed Turkoglu, instead of elevating over Howard, he pulls up and tries to attempt a fade-away, giving the recover Turkoglu time to swat his shot from behind. All the credit in the world should go to Hedo for recovering and making the play, but Kobe never gives him the chance to a year or two ago.

Kobe is in unchartered territory here: he's been a warrior in the league since he was 17, and while he's been banged up here and there, you have to say he's been pretty durable over his career: and even though he's only 30 it's been a LONG career. 948 regular season games, all of the playoff games, the Olympics and everything else means Kobe's played the same as a 35 or 36 year old. People want to make the comparisons of how Jordan, as he got older, was able to transition himself from an attack-the-basket physical freak to a jump shooter and how Kobe's done the same. True, except that MJ could still blow by defenders in his early 30's, where as we're seeing now, Kobe can't. So yes, Kobe is making the necessary changes to his game that MJ did, but it's changes Mike didn't make until he was 34 or 35, while Kobe has to do it at 30.

Where I'm going with all of this is that Kobe was one of the three best players on the planet this year (along with Bronbron and Wade), but starting perhaps as soon as next season, he'll slip down to a top 10, then top 20, then to "MJ with the Wizards"
status by the time he's in his mid-30's. This year was one of his last few years to be able to to dominate a season and a post season and win the title by himself. Doing so, if/when the Lakers finish off the Magic, means Kobe goes from borderline top 10 of all-time type to definitely in the top 9 (I'd put MJ, Russell, Magic, Bird, Wilt, West, Oscar, and probably Shaq. Elgin Baylor too?), and it was the perfect year to do it.

While we didn't know it at the time, when KG's season ended with a knee injury, so too did any hope of anybody knocking off the Lakers this year. A healthy Celtics squad was the only team capable of beating the Lakers this year (and I believe they would have- same recipe they won with last year, with the added bonus of Rajan Rondo becoming one of the L's three best point guards. He would have MURDERED the Lakers all by himself). We found out how overrated the Lebrons were, the Magic just don't matchup well, and as we suspected, nobody in the West was touching them. Kobe's been the best player on a title team, and nobody will be able to take it away from him, and this might have been his last chance.

Next year, the Cavs will/should/HAVE to be better in what's possibly Lebron's swansong, Portland has a chance to get dangerous, Houston has some interesting possibilities, and Chicago could be downright frightening (Orlando will be one of the East's best yet again, but they don't have the cap or roster flexibility to really change anything). 2009/10 should be an exciting year (if you can stomach all the "Lebron to New York!!" talk. Good lord it hasn;t even started and I'm sick of it already), but the chances for a Lakers title will certainly be tougher than it was this year.

So enjoy Orlando's home wins, and enjoy the coronation of a Champion in LA. Kobe certainly will, as it could be the last one he gets as one of the league's best players.

Who I Like/Don't Like in the 2009 NBA Draft

2009-06-02T07:06:00.003-07:00

As easy and fun as it is to rip Kevin McHale and the 600 1st Avenue Country Club for their horrible, horrible draft record, it's only fair to give my own opinions on who I like and don't like in a given draft year. Something about accountability and transparency when ripping others. Call me crazy, but it's something I believe in.

For instance, while I liked Brandon Roy more than Randy Foye, I had no idea Roy would be THIS good! I also didn't like LaMarcus Aldridge because I thought he was too soft, but he's turned into a pretty good player. Some of my other draft hits and misses:

HITS:
Kevin Durant over Greg Oden
Carmelo Anthony over Darko Milicic
Danny Granger over Rashad McCants
Anybody with a pulse over Wally Szerbiak and Ndi Ibi
Never, ever draft a white center in the lottery, or even the first round for that matter
Hating every player the Sonics took in the first round this decade before Sam Presti took over
Hating Andrea Bargnani
Chris Paul & Deron Williams being better than Bogut and Marvin Williams

MISSES:
Adam Morrison. Wow
Gerald Green
Mike Conley and Corey Brewer (so far)
Emeka Okafor over Dwight Howard (again wow)
Dirk Nowitzki
Andrew Bynum (although after this playoff series...?)

There's plenty more, but those are a few that stand out for me. Another one, and it's one that McHale still gets heat for, is Stephon Marbury. Look, you're lying if you say you thought Starbury would be a bust, and the draft day deal of Ray Allen for Steph was a horrible idea. You are lying to yourself and the world if you say that now. EVERYBODY loved the idea of Marbury and KG teaming up for the next decade and dominating the league, and the thing that sucks is it SHOULD have happened.

Playing with Garnett was the perfect- I repeat PERFECT- situation for Marbury. A tough and engaging leader to lean on who would do all the little things, but would not only allow but LOVE for Steph to take over down the stretch. Honestly, it was a match made in heaven and it should have led to years of Timberwolves glory- it's just Marbury himself couldn't swallow it because he'd never get paid more than KG and would be overshadowed by him. The worst thing that ever happened to Steph was himself, and considering his background (he had the weight of his entire family riding on his success and was the legend of legends in NYC in high school), it shouldn't be a surprise that he would never gain the perspective needed to realize how good he had it. It was just impossible for a young Stephon Marbury to see that being the highest paid and biggest star wasn't everything, and that he absolutely, positively needed Garnett to be successful. And yet even if we could do it again, knowing what we know now, I would STILL petition for McHale to take Marbury and hope like hell it changed and he could get through to him.

Anyway, I'm not going to go through like 50 players of who I love and hate, but I'll give you five I love (besides Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio. Duh), five I hate, and five I'm on the fence about. As you've probably heard, this is NOT a good draft- Griffin is the absolute sure thing at the top, Rubio is the consensus second best player (could be a better NBA player than Griffin, but because Griffin's chances of achieving his potential are better than Rubio's, he should be ranked higher), and after that it's pretty much a crap shoot. Get used to hearing this phrase: "but in this draft..." It means normally you wouldn't reach for or take a player because of flaws/concerns "but in this draft" there's really nothing better so you're almost forced to roll the dice. Honestly, after Griffin and Rubio, there's only two other players with star potential, yet I'm only sold on one of them. Let's start there...

I LOVE LAMP
DeMar DeRozan, SG, 6'6, USC, 20 yrs old (when the 2009 season starts)
DeRozan was inconsistent in his one year as a Trojan, but started to put it together during their NCAA tourney run. He's the perfect size for the wing and is probably the best athlete in this draft. His ballhandling could use work but has a good stroke inside of 20 ft, and you have to believe he can develop the NBA 3. His hunger is a bit of a question, but to me he's the third best prospect behind Griffin and Rubio. If he's still available at 6 the Wolves should RUN, not walk, to the podium with his name.

Jordan Hill, PF, 6'10, Arizona, 22 yrs
Not sure he's an all-star, but he should be a solid starter for a long time. In the couple of games I watched him this year, he showed a good offensive feel for the game in the post, both with his back to the basket and facing up, and scouts are saying his range goes out to 15+. A good college rebounder and most importantly, he really seems to give a crap. If the Wolves two best players weren't at PF, I'd love to see him here.

Eric Maynor, PG, 6'3, VCU, 22 yrs
What?!? A senior in the lottery? A guy who played four years of college who will actually make a good pro? Impossible, you say! Well I don't care. I don't care that Maynor isn't an elite athlete or is slim at only 164 pounds, or that he doesn't have the prettiest jumped. I don't care. Because when you actually watch the man's games, you see a point guard. You see a guy who has a high basketball IQ that knows how to run a team, and those kind of players are few and far between. In his NCAA tourney runs with VCU, his team always had less talent yet they were always in the game, and Maynor was often the best player on the floor. He might not have the Tremendous Upside Potential of some other PG's or players in this draft, but he's going to be a solid pro point for a long, long time.

DeJuan Blair, PF, 6'7, Pittsburgh, 20 yrs
Somebody made a "the next Tractor Traylor" comparison, and while that's certainly a possibility, I'd still have no problem taking Blair. Yes, he might not even be 6'7, and yes he could end up eating an entire Perkins and Denny's for a snack, but he was an elite rebounder in college in the best conference in the country, and that absolutely translates to the NBA. Again, he's not going to be an all-star talent or a go-to option in the paint, but he can be a starter and rebounding machine in the L. I'd draft him, and hire him a personal chef and trainer to keep his weight in check. And put a "stay the hell away from fast food joints" clause in his contract.

Tyreke Evans, SG, 6'5, Memphis, 20 yrs
Love the Jerry Stackhouse comparisons, or even Jamal Crawford or Larry Hughes. After watching him in college I'm surprised how many NBA people seem to be down on him. He dominated college against the best competition and just showed a natural will and feel as a scorer that you can't teach. I don't care how ugly his jumper is or that people think he's not an elite athlete, I think he'll step in and contribute immediately, and I believe a Stackhouse-type career (a borderline allstar) is not only possible, but probable.

ON THE FENCE
Earl Clark, SF, 6'10, Louisville, 21 yrs
This would be the fourth guy with "star potential", but I have such a big question about his motor and whether he's going to care much once he's got a guaranteed contract for millions, I'm putting him here. Has all-star talent at small forward and everything you'd ever want skill-wise at the position (his jumper needs work but that's about it), but I see him being the next Tim Thomas, and that friends, is not a player I'd want to pay big money to. Still, he's such a freakish athlete and looked so dominant at times, in this draft...

Brandon Jennings, PG, 6'3, Virtus Roma, 20 yrs old
Was the top PG in last year's high school class, and took a huge risk by playing a year in Europe instead of the NCAA. The team he chose wasn't a good fit for his wide-open style, and so folks are down on him. Still, in this draft, I chalk up the shaky year in Europe to him being 19 and trying to adjust to a completely different lifestyle and country, and style of play. I focus on the fact he's a ridiculous athlete who can get to the rim whenever he wants, is quick defensively, and shows a good feel for the game. The big question is can he run a team? In a draft with so few impact guys, I'd roll the dice.

Jonny Flynn, PG, 5'11, Syracuse, 20 yrs
If you love basketball and you watched any of the 19 million Syracuse games that were on this year, you had to love Flynn. Had to. I certainly did and would love the guy on my team, but I'm just not sure what he does or is in the NBA. He's got a big wingspan for a little guy, great quickness, is strong for his size, and can do the "Sam Cassell Giant Cahones" dance as well as anyone (or that he has incredible intestinal fortitude). He was fearless and a great leader with The Orange, but in the pros he's a 5'11 combo guard who can't really run the point and doesn't shoot well. I want him to succeed, I'm just not sure he will.

Stephen Curry, PG?, 6'2, Davidson, 21 yrs
With the Knicks he's a solid contributor and possible starter. Anywhere else he's a 3-point specialist like his dad was.

Chase Buddinger, SG, 6'7, Arizona, 21 yrs
You don't want him as your best player, or even your second best, but if he's allowed to be a third option he could be good. I like the Glen Rice/Brent Barry comparisons nbadraft.net makes. Great shooter and solid athlete (especially for a white guy).

THANKS BUT NO THANKS
Hasheem Thabeet, C, 7'3, Connecticut, 22 yrs
From his nbadraft.net profile, this sentence about sums it up for me:
"Looked absolutely helpless against Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair, one of the few players he faced with an NBA-type body"

So you're telling me the guy will be fine unless he faces somebody with NBA size? Shouldn't be that big a deal unless...well yeah, unless he's trying to play in the NBA. I think it was Bill Simmons who wondered aloud why people were making such a big deal of Thabeet's shot blocking, because after all- he's 7'3 and there's so few good post players in college anymore. I didn't agree with him at the time, but do now- Thabeet dominated weaker competition because there were no real centers that could challenge him. And yet even with that, he STILL couldn't score to save his life. He has showed zero post moves or any semblance of an offensive game. Add to that the dubious track record of NBA players over 7'1 (they're generally either terrible or terribly injury prone), and you couldn't keep me far enough away from taking Thabeet.

James Harden, SG, 6'4, Arizona State, 20 yrs
Won't be a bust, but won't be a star either. Yes, he's strong for a two guard, but he's a bit undersized, isn't a superior athlete to make up for it, and right now is an ok shooter. Wouldn't touch him in the top 10, let alone the top 5.

Gerald Henderson, SG, 6'4, Duke, 21 yrs
So let's see, he's from Duke, he's undersized, he's not a great shooter, he went to Duke, HAD MORE TURNOVERS THAN ASSISTS LAST YEAR (felt like I needed to yell that point), couldn't consistently be the go-to player his team was dying for him to be, and he's also from Duke. Other than that, what's not to love?

BJ Mullens, C, 7'0, Ohio State, 20 yrs
Had to save my most hated player for last. This guy will be the prime example that NBA GM's just will never, ever learn- no matter how useless a white center is in actual games, if he shows a pulse and some semblance of ability in workouts, they're going to take him in the first round. I will never understand it. Mullens has NBA size and according to all of these experts has all of these skills, so why was he so bad at Ohio State? The Big Ten was way down this year, there were zero big men to challenge him, and yet he never took over games or came close to dominating. If you average his stats out to 40 mins per game, he averaged a respectable 16 points, but only 8 boards and 2 blocks. If he couldn't get motivated to dominate in college, why does anyone believe he's going to be motivated to dominate the NBA once he gets a guaranteed contract? He's the unquestedioned leader in the clubhouse for the 2009honorary "Shawn Bradley Award" for useless white center taken in the first round who teams had talked themselves into thinking wouldn't be a useless white center. Past recipients include Michael Doleac (1998), Frederick Weis (1999), Chris Mihm (2000), Nickoloz Tskitishvili (2002- I know he's not a center and I don't care), Darko Milicic (2003), Pavel Podkolzine (2004), Yaroslav Korolev (2005- narrowly edging Bogut in one of the great Useless White Center draft debates of all-time), Andrea Bargnani (2006 hahaha SUCK IT TORONTO!!), Jason Smith (2007- who? Exactly), and last year's winner Kosta Koufus (bigger shock- that he went to Ohio State or was drafted by Utah? Discuss, discuss...). Congrats BJ on the only NBA award you'll ever win.

Taylor Cries Wolves, Hires New GM- No Really

2009-05-21T10:11:00.006-07:00

According to Jerry Zgoda's excellent T-Wolves blog at the Strib, the Wolves five month search for a new GM will finally end tomorrow- and thankfully, it's not going to be Fred Hoiberg, Jim Stack, or Kevin McHale. I know what you're thinking- YEAH RIGHT!! Former Indiana Pacers GM David Kahn is apparently the man for the job, and according to Zgoda, he is NOT obligated to keep McHale, Hoiberg, or Stack. Again, YEAH RIGHT!

For the three people that have been following this saga, the Wolves were all set to announce Blazers assistant GM Tim Penn as their new head man last week- until he pulled out, claiming the Blazers made him an offer he couldn't refuse. Penn was the third candidate to politely pull his name from the search, but this time, owner Glen Taylor is saying he really, truly, honestly, no doubt about it has his man- hopefully Kahn doesn't have second thoughts before tomorrow's press conference.

So is it a bad sign that the Wolves had to take their fourth choice? Sure, you could argue that "hey at least they didn't hire Hoiberg, Stack or McHale!", except that I don't believe for a second that any or all of those three aren't going to keep their jobs or stay with the organization in some capacity. Yep, Taylor claims that he's told Kahn, and all the other candidates who interviewed, that they would have full control of who they put on their staff, but to me, he's just crying wolf yet again about how he wants to make changes, but other than the coach, nothing ever changes.

Kahn has apparently been told he does not have to keep any of the former 600 First Avenue Country Club members if he doesn't want to, although he WILL keep that group together through the draft, since it'd be pretty tough to put a new staff together AND prep for the draft in the next five weeks. But there's every reason to believe that's not true at all. I mean, look at the Wolves GM position: ok so living through Minnesota winters probably isn't the most intriguing thing for an outsider, but this is still a really promising job with a lot of potential. You've got some excellent building blocks/trade chips in Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller, as well as a slew of upcoming draft picks AND a ton of cap space opening up in the next couple of years. There is a LOT to like about this opportunity.

So why then, if Taylor is saying he's giving the new GM free reign, would three people who are currently NOT NBA GM's pass up this opportunity? Why? I don't care how good things are for Tom Penn in Portland, former Miami GM Randy Pfund, or Spurs assistant GM Dennis Lindsey, none of those guys have a job as good as President of Basketball Operations for an NBA team. So unless they've got inside info and a shot at a better, more promising GM job down the road, WHY would four very smart, very qualified candidates pass up what looks to be a very good NBA job that is better than what they currently have?

Unless the job really isn't that good. Unless contrary to what Glen Taylor is telling the public, he's telling the candidates that they have to keep McHale if they want to come back, and that he's a big fan of Freddy Hoiberg and wants him to stay in the organization too. And while they're at, in these tough economic times, he also needs to find jobs for his good buddies Jim Stack and Rob Babcock.

Honestly, no other reason would make sense for three of these guys to back out unless they weren't be given the total control of the team Taylor says he's giving them.

So that's why I'm really skeptical that Kahn is going to clean house- not because he doesn't want to, but because he can't. McHale has turned out to be a pretty good coach, but his legacy here and the damage he's done and the shadow he casts would- or at least SHOULD- make anybody who takes the GM job kick McHale to the curb. Hoiberg doesn't have the horrible track record McHale does, but I'm sorry- I don't care how nice the guy is or how smart, if all he's learned has been with a Wolves organization that has proven over and over and over that they have no idea what they're doing, how can you expect Hoiberg to be different? If all you've learned and all you know is the wrong way to do things, why on God's green earth would you suddenly expect Hoiberg to start making smart basketball decisions?

Honestly, if you were starting a car company and you were going to hire an executive to run it, would you try to hire somebody from GM or Chrysler, or would you go with somebody from Toyota, Honda, or Mercedes Benz? Unless you're an idiot (or you know you're going to get billions of tax payer dollars no matter how badly you run your business), you're going to hire somebody from one of the successful foreign car companies. Sports is, and should be, the same way. Crappy teams need to hire people from successful franchises: in football I'd be after folks from the Patriots, Colts or Steelers, in hockey it'd be the Detroit Red Wings, and in baseball there's plenty of well-run teams like the Rays or Red Sox. In the NBA, you go after folks from the Spurs, Blazers, and Celtics, and to Taylor's credit, that's what he tried to do. But the fact he didn't just fire his entire staff and then be bold and go out and get the best person for the job tells me all I need to about how Taylor really conducted his search and what he's told his candidates. Because he's let his entire staff stay on (...and on...and on...and on...) and it took him SO long to find a new GM that the staff now has to stay until after the draft...well you do the math.

I hope I'm wrong, as since the Sonics were stolen from the good people of Seattle I'm looking for a team to cheer for. But Taylor has cried "Wolves!" too many times for me to trust that he's going to finally clean house and give his franchise the fresh start it deserves. I'll believe it when I see it.

The Monday Musings

2009-05-18T12:50:00.003-07:00

...The Favre stuff just won't die, will it? As excited as I would be to have Favre in Purple this fall, I'm sick of the hourly updates on whether he's decided to play or not. My two cents, and this is the only thing I'm going to say about it until he signs with the team sometime next month or in July (and he will):
Without Favre, the Vikings WILL play TJack at quarterback. They will. I don't care what Brad Childress says about a competition with Sage Rosenfels, he WILL start TJack regardless. If Childress wanted real competition for Jackson, he would have gone after Jeff Garcia, or made a run at Jay Cutler in trade. But he did neither. So without Favre, we get TJack, and with TJack as the starter in not only a much improved NFC North, but a much improved NFC as a whole, the Vikings are not a playoff team.

So if the best case scenario WITHOUT Favre is not going to the playoffs, what's there to lose by signing him? Exactly, nothing. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain. First and foremost, this is being driven by owner Ziggy Wilf, who has had trouble not only drumming support for a new stadium, but just to sell out games on a weekly basis. Hell, Jer and I got playoff tickets the week of the game, which pre-Chilly/TJack never would have happened. So the surest way for Ziggy to sell tickets this year is for Favre to be a Viking. Tickets would suddenly be impossible to get, and he'd be selling #4 Favre jerseys like lemonade on a hot day. Furthermore, IF Favre's shoulder gets fixed and he gets some semblance of his fastball back, he's a legit QB and the Vikes are a SUper Bowl contender. And if they're a Super Bowl contender, fans/voters/tax payers and fans/legislature have a much better chance of doing a 180 on getting a publicly funded stadium off the ground when the VIkes are winning.

On KFAN here locally, Sludge (who is acting like a four year old in saying he doesn't want Favre here because he plays for the Vikes arch rival) said there's no proof that if the Vikings make a Super Bowl run with Favrey that state lawmakers will suddenly jump on board with a publicly-funded stadium. Au contraire, mon fraire. Seattle has done this not once, but twice- as a Ken Griffey Jr. led post-season run saved the Mariners and got Safeco field built, and around the same time, a Gary Payton/Shawn Kemp combo saved the Sonics (for another 10 years anyway) by getting Key Arena renovated and up to NBA code. It can and could possibly happen, and you'd better believe Ziggy Wilf is banking on it. If not Purple Fans, Ziggy will take this team to LA in two years. So there's yet another reason to want Favre. Until he signs, I'm done talking about it.

...Wow are the Lakers ever soft. How can a team that was THAT dominate all year long get pushed around and forced to 7 games by such an undermaned Rockets team? Pathetic. Kobe and Phil Jackson should be taking the brunt of this. Jordan never, ever would have let an opponent as wounded as Houston hang around for seven games. Hell, Lebron James never would have either. And how does Phil Jackson, who is supposed to be the greatest coach ever, allow a depleted Houston squad take his superiorly talented Lakers to 7 games? Phil won 6 titles with the Bulls because Jordan willed them to it, and won three more with the Lakers because he had (at the time) the two best players on the planet in Shaq and Kobe. His genius is in getting players to buy-in and coexist that otherwise would not, but if he doesn't have superior talent, he's a baby sitter just like every other NBA coach (other than Jerry Sloan and Greg Popovich. Those two are good coaches, although I'd be interested to see what Popovich would do with a normal NBA team of malcontents and prima donas instead of the first-class citizens he's had his whole time there in San Antonio).

...On the other hand, the Rockets should be commended for playing that well with their two best players on the shelf. Still, the future of the Rockets is up in the air now because I don't trust said two best players who were on the shelf. T-Mac has never won a playoff series and can't stay healthy and Yao Ming- as talented and hardworking and likeable as he is- also has never won a playoff series and cannot stay healthy. This is the fifth straight year Yao has a pretty serious injury, which to me means a trend. One or two years, hey maybe that's a fluke, but five in a row now? Houston will get out from under McGrady's contract by next summer, but it'll be interesting to see what GM whiz Dork-Elvis does with Yao: what do you do if you can't trust your highest paid player to be healthy?

...I was wrong about the Iverson/Chauncey Billups deal. When it was made, I loved it for Detroit, and thought it was nothing more than a lateral move for the Nuggets. Whoops. I still love this deal for the Pistons because they peaked two years ago with that core, and they weren't getting past the second round of the playoffs (and maybe not even the first) if they kept Billups. Instead, they got AI's massive expiring contract to go with Ra-weed's expiring deal, setting them up to be major players this summer when few, if any, teams will have money to spend. Joe Dumars made the right move in dumping Billups while he still had value, but he still has a LOT of work ahead of him.

As for the Nuggets, I didn't count on Billups not only being this good, but making his teammates this good. It's a totally different Denver squad than before they got him, and it looks like everybody is playing up to potential. The other thing I didn't count on were the Lakers playing and acting like a bunch of Euros. If the Lakers played up to their abilities we'd have the Lakers/Cavs Final I guaranteed a few months ago. Instead, we could actually have a series here. Personally, I'd rather see Nuggets/Cavs (Melo vs. Bronbron) than Lakers/Cavs.

...I'd love to tell you how great the hockey playoffs have been this last month, but I don't get Versus so I can't. Yet another arrogant, ignorant, and stupid move by Gary Bettman to put them there instead of swallowing his pride and keeping the NHL on ESPN, even though they'd be getting next to nothing to do so. Would you rather get paid nothing up front by ESPN but actually have fans be able to see your games, or make pennies from Versus and have nobody watch it?

...If you DVR'd Will Ferrell hosting the season finale of SNL and haven't watched it yet, I'm going to ruin it for you. Why? Because I don't want you to waste a good hour of your time. It was a truly disappointing effort all around. It was like the writers just took the week off and said "hey we can just recycle his old skits and make up jokes the night before. It's Will Ferrell! Everybody will laugh!" Um no. I don't even blame Ferrell for this, because he's only as good as his writing- and the skits Saturday night stunk. Jeopardy was pretty good, but still not even up to par with the old ones, and the others were forgetable. Even his Harry Caray routine during Weekend Update- I mean, how do you screw that up? And yet they did.

Anti NFL Draft Thoughts

2009-04-24T10:34:00.000-07:00

It’s the day before the NFL draft, and I’m thinking the following…

…this has been covered pretty much everywhere, including here, and yet still it can’t be mentioned enough: The NFL not only needs, they HAVE TO restructure the rookie salary scale for the first 7 picks. The NFL is the one league where drafted players are ready to step in and help right away (except QB’s, which we’ve covered), and yet the teams who so badly need the top players don’t want them because the cost too much. Does that make any sense? No, no it does not. I wonder how this hasn’t been rectified much earlier? I mean, other than 6 or 7 college draftees who have proven NOTHING, who does this system benefit? Why would the Players Association be so in favor of this in the past when again, IT ONLY BENEFITS 6 OR 7 PLAYERS WHO HAVE PROVEN NOTHING!?!?!?!? It’s just ridiculous and it needs to change.

…I don’t believe a single word any team says about who they’re drafting. Not one word. I feel bad for football reporters right now, because they’re trying to give us the readers nuggets and tidbits and insight when really? There’s none to give. Teams use these reporters to feed misinformation to the rest of the league, and that’s really it. Peter King is one of the best (maybe the best?) NFL reporter today, and yet he does the same thing in his column today.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/peter_king/04/24/draft/index.html?eref=T1

He begins by saying “The Patriots are Fort Knox on draft weekend -- and, for that matter, on every weekend. Remember last year? New England traded down from seven to 10 in the first round and got the object of its affection, Tennessee linebacker Jerod Mayo, and no one ever knew Mayo was their man.”

Ok fine, yet he then says that two teams have told him that the Patriots are reportedly trying to move up to grab the 8th or 9th pick. Um, if the Patriots are Fort Knox and nobody last year had any idea they were moving up to get Mayo until after it happened, and nobody had any idea they were trading Matt Cassell to the Chiefs until after it happened WHY WOULD THEY MAKE IT KNOWN THEY TRADING UP?!?!?!? They have a history of doing deals quietly, so wouldn’t reason state that if they really WERE moving up, they wouldn’t have trade discussions until draft day? I’m not sayin’ I’m just sayin’

…All we know for sure right now is that two teams will make dumb picks, and one will make a smart one: the Lions will take Matthew Stafford (dumb), the Rams will take Jason Smith (smart), and the Raiders will take somebody who makes no sense whatsoever and who nobody had ranked in the Top 10 (this is what happens when your team is run by a senile old man in a track suit who still thinks it’s 1974). Otherwise? Your guess is as good as mine- or any of the “draft experts”.

…The only value of said so-called draft “experts” is to tell us who they like and don’t like. Do they like Matthew Stafford more than Marc Sanchez? Jason Smith more than Andre Smith? Any of the USC linebackers? Any receiver not named Michael Crabtree? Those are opinions I appreciate.

…I don’t care if Florida WR Percy Harvin was dumb enough to smoke pot knowing he’d have to take a drug test, I want the Vikes to take him if he’s there at 22. There, I said it. If Harvin’s not, I honestly have no clue. Take a WR or an offensive tackle. There should be a good one available.

…Non draft related but still sorta draft related- new Browns coach Eric Mangini is not enamored with QB Brady Quinn. If I’m the Vikings, I’m on the phone NOW and offer a 2nd round pick, and maybe a 3rd or a 4th. Or another pick next year? I wouldn’t give up this year’s #1, but I’d give up a 2 or later or a combo platter of 2 or later picks to get Quinn, who has had two years to learn in the NFL and is ready to go. Of course, because I’m not the Vikings, I actually think they desperately need a quarterback, so you know, it’ll never happen. Oh well. Watch Quinn get traded somewhere else and do well. Don’t say I didn’t tell you because I just did.

Why The Lions Should Not Take Matthew Stafford #1 Overall

2009-04-20T09:03:00.005-07:00

We can thank George Costanza for inventing “It’s not you, it’s me.” It’s a simple and easy way to escape from a relationship you’re no longer, well, into. Or a great way to stop one before it gets started. For the Detroit Lions (or as I like to call them, the Detwah Leones), they need to pull the “It’s not you, it’s me” bit with Matthew Stafford because he is the wrong pick for them at #1 overall at this Saturday’s NFL Draft.

Telling Stafford “it’s not you, it’s me” would actually be true both ways because unless John Elway or Peyton Manning were available in this draft, I don’t think ANY quarterback is the right pick for Detwah at #1 overall- not Stafford, not Marc Sanchez, not Josh Freeman. And also because I don’t think Stafford is going to be a very good NFL quarterback.

I don’t care how strong his arm is or how much he looks or sounds or acts like an NFL quarterback, Stafford's resume at Georgia- you know, what he actually did in real live games in his three seasons as the starter in Athens instead of in pro-day drills against no defense- leaves a little something to be desired. As a Bulldog, Stafford was surrounded by future NFL talent on both sides of the ball, and he rarely, if ever, took the field against a less talented team (I know LSU and Florida won National Titles while Stafford was at Georgia, but can you honestly tell me the Bulldogs were outclassed by either the Tigers or Gators? Those teams were great, but I don’t think they were clearly more talented than Georgia was).

Just last season Georgia was the preseason #1 team in the country with a solid O-line, one of- if not the best- stable of running backs in the country (led by redshirt soph Knowshon Moreno who will be one of the first two backs taken in Saturday’s draft), and talent at wideout which included senior Mohamed Massquoi (who according to various reports could be taken as early as the 2nd round) and freshman 6’4 200 lb monster AJ Green (who, barring injury or a bad attitude, is a lock to be a first round pick whenever he decides to enter the draft). Georgia’s result for 2008? A disappointing 10-3. In his three years as a starter, the Bulldogs won zero National Titles, zero SEC Titles, and zero SEC East division titles (they tied for the division lead in 2007, but tie-breakers gave it to Florida. I don’t personally don’t count that one). Sure, they were 3-0 in bowl games (in 2007 beat Virginia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, 2008 beat an awful Hawaii team in the Sugar Bowl and this past January knocked off Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl), but they weren’t National Championship games that they had the talent to be in, and only one, the joke of a matchup against Hawaii, was a BCS game. They did win 30 games in his three seasons there, but ask Bulldogs fans if that was enough.

If Stafford has so much talent and ability and that golden arm, why weren’t his Georgia teams better? Why weren’t they the best? If his teams disappoint in college with all of that talent around him, what makes you think he’s going to be so much better in the pros?

Which leads us back to the “It’s not you it’s me” phrase actually being true because, as I said, Detroit really isn’t good enough for Stafford, or Sanchez or Freeman to be successful anytime soon. I mentioned Elway and Manning earlier because those are the only two rookie quarterbacks I can think of who were high draft picks, started in their first year for awful teams, and went on to have successful careers. Elway orchestrated a trade from the Baltimore Colts (who had the #1 overall pick in 1983) to Denver, and he started 10 games in Orange and Blue (why won't they go back to those jerseys? They were infinitely better than the stupid Nike designs they wear now) that first year and went 4-6. The next year the Broncos went 12-2 in games he started and well, you know the rest. Manning started from day one in Indy and went 3-13 his rookie year. The next year? 13-3. Like Elway, the rest is history.

But that's it for highly drafted QB's going to awful teams, starting as rookies, and living to tell about it. In recent years we've seen guys like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr, Joey Harrington and Alex Smith go high, start early for awful teams, and get so beat up and knocked around they never develop. Sure, maybe one or none of these guys would have be a good QB no matter how much talent was there, but they are examples that show rookie QB's should not be starting unless EVERYTHING- and I mean everything- else is in place.

In the last decade there have been three and only three rookie QB's whose teams have been successful- Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 (Pittsburgh was 13-0 in games he started), and Matt Ryan (Atlanta was 11-5) and Joe Flacco (Ravens were also 11-5 ) this past season.

Roethlisberger has developed into one of the top 10 QB’s in the league, and Flacco and especially Ryan, could join him in that group soon. All three undeniably are talented QB’s, but they were also put into the perfect situation- their teams asked them to do as little as humanly possible to win. As I’ve mentioned on this site a few times before, the Steelers in 2004 are the blueprint for winning with a rookie QB, and it’s really simple: all you need is a great defense, Oline, running game, and solid-to-great receivers. Really you just need the entire package there except a QB and your rookie quarterback should develop just great! Isn’t that easy? Ok maybe not, but if you draft a rookie QB and insist on starting him, unless you can draft Elway or Manning, this is your only recipe that doesn’t leave to disaster.

The Steelers in 2004 had an awesome defense, a veteran and outstanding O-line, a bruising rushing attack led by Jerome Bettis, and an unreal receiving core of Hines Ward, Plax Burress, Antwan Randel-El and TE Heath Miller that could not only catch but block. The Steelers went 13-0 that year with Roethlisberger as the starter because he only threw 295 passes that season (completing196 of them for a 66.4 completion % and a total QB rating of 98.1), which is an average of only 23 pass attempts per game. They used this recipe successfully for Big Ben’s first two years, winning a Super Bowl the second. His third year when the running game broke down and he had to attempt over 400 passes (469 to be exact) the Steelers limped to a 7-8 record and Ben had a completion % of only 59.1 and a QB rating of 75.4. Ouch. In 2007 the team was healthy and productive, and Roethlisberger asserted himself by throwing a respectable 409 passes with a 65.3 comp. % and an other-worldly 104.1 QB rating.

You see the progression? Ask your rookie QB to do as little as humanly possible, let him learn in a safe environment where there’s little pressure and he can drop back to throw without fear of being killed, and you get Big Ben. Ask your rookie QB to be David Carr where your team stinks and he gets sacked 4,375 times in his first five years (I’m only slightly exaggerating those sack totals), and he doesn’t exactly pan out.

Last season Baltimore and Atlanta both had excellent defenses, offensive lines, running games, and surprisingly productive receivers, and their QB’s helped their teams to 11-5 seasons. Yes, both guys did throw over 400 passes, but their numbers were still in the bottom 10 for passes attempted in the league. When they both got to the playoffs and saw defenses who forced them to throw, their teams made a quick exit. It doesn’t mean Ryan and Flacco aren’t good, it’s just further proof that no matter how talented you think a rookie QB is, you do not throw him into the fire unless you have everything else around him taken care of.

Of course, this doesn’t just apply to high draft picks, but to any rookie. Go ahead, look at any of the successful QB’s today by whatever criteria you’d measure as “successful” and they all sat at least a season before starting: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner, Matt Cassell, Philip Rivers, and Aaron Rodgers. I could go on and on, but you get the point- they all sat for at least a year, and I don’t see any way that Stafford will sit for much or all of 2009 if he goes to the Lions.

I think Daunte Culpepper is a fine quarterback, but let’s be honest here: while the Lions can’t get any worse in 2009, they were 0-16 in 2008. They’re not going to the playoffs or anything close this year, which means no matter how well Culpepper plays, the wheels WILL fall off the Lions season early, and the pressure will be on to throw Stafford into the mix. He’ll get thrown to the wolves and he’ll get eaten alive, and chances are, he won’t recover from it.

So if the Lions want to stop being the laughing stock of the league and be respectable sooner rather than later, the best thing they can do is pull a Costanza and tell Matt Stafford “It’s you, it’s me”, draft Baylor OT Jason Smith (like Miami drafted OT Jake Long instead of a QB last year and Cleveland passed on Brady Quinn and took OT Joe Thomas the year before that) and use the rest of their picks to help them get better now. They can take a QB in the later rounds or worry about that next year or the year after when they have more than my mancrush Calvin “Megatron” Johnson and Kevin Smith to help him succeed.

Don’t take it personally Matt, because it really is not you, it’s me.

Quick Hit Last Minute Opening Day Season Preview:

2009-04-06T07:28:00.003-07:00

While I did a lot of prep for my two fantasy baseball drafts, I can’t say I’ve done a lot of prep into who’s going to do what this year. But one thing really, really bothers me: all of the people picking the New York Yankees and/or the Boston Red Sox over the defending AL champs the Tampa Bay Rays. For the life of me I do not understand this. Follow along, if you will…

First, there’s the Yankees, who dropped a huge chunk of change this offseason for 1B Mark Teixeira and starters CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Definitely upgrades, and definitely some needed moves for them, but I’m missing how this turns them into a 100 win juggernaut and how these three massive signings makes all the baseball world wrong. Sabathia has piled up more innings than any other starter the last few years, and he’s not exactly in the best shape of his career- unless his desired shape is either “round” or “rotund.” I’m just saying conditioning, as well as fatigue and wear and tear on his arm could be a factor. Burnett has amazing stuff- like top 3 in baseball type stuff- but he’s a flake. Hell, I put to you we should stop calling people “flaky” and start calling them either “Burnetty” or “Pulling an AJ”. He is the dictionary definition of the phrase “a (multi) million dollar arm and a ten cent head”. He’s been on the DL a lot over his career, and according to his own teams it hasn’t always been because they think he should be there. Last year he didn’t pitch for over a month because he just didn’t feel 110% healthy- even though team doctors could find nothing wrong with him. And now you’re going to put him in the world’s largest and toughest media market on the one of the most scruitinized and publicized teams on the planet and expect him to make it? Hey at least they got a bargain on the guy for the low, low price of $80 million.

As for Teixeira, there’s nothing wrong with him- actually there’s a lot right. He’s one of the best defensive first basemen in the game (a massive upgrade at that spot to Giambi), and is a solid middle of the order bat. But he’s not one of the best 20, or even 30, hitters in the game. He’s just not. Good yes, but not a monster middle of the order bat, and not worth what the Yanks paid him.

Around this trio you then add a suspect rotation, an even more suspect bullpen, A-Rod out for at least a month and possibly much longer, and an outfield foursome of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. Yep, Jeter will be Jeter and Cano is due to bounce back, but I just don’t see how this is the best team in the AL East.

Boston? They continue to make smart signings for comeback candidates like starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz. After blowing up their 2004 World Series champs team, they only made some tweaks to 2008’s playoff team, which was probably smart considering I wouldn’t have paid what the Yankees had to in order to get their 3 big signings (although I know the Sox were in love with Teixeira). That said, the rotation and bullpen will be good, and defensively if everyone stays healthy they should be good again, but what about the hitting? Big Papi has been in decline for three straight years, certainly because Manny’s not there to protect him (even though he’s only been gone for half a season) and not at all because of more stringent steroid testing. Never. Impossible.

Anyway, so Big Papi is now just Papi, 3B Mike Lowell’s hurt and was generally awful last year, their SS position doesn’t look great (Jed Lowrie should win the job and is a decent shortstop defensively, but is not a top of the order hitter), AL MVP Dustin Pedroia will never have a better season than he did last year, and JD Drew is known to be “Burnetty” (see how that just rolls off the tongue?) from time to time. I like Jason Bay (he’s a Canadian from BC, so of course I like him), Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty in the Sox batting order.

Which brings us to the Tampa Bay Rays. You know, the little bunch of overachievers who represented the AL in the World Series last year? Yeah, those guys. See the 2008 Rays weren’t a mirage or a miracle or some kind of one hit wonder- that’s their true talent level. They made a huge upgrade defensively to go from one of the worst defensive clubs in 2007 to the best in 2008, and their young pitchers and hitters started coming of age and doing what they’re supposed to do. The team is so deep in pitching they sent the best pitching prospect in baseball, David Price (who was awesome out of the pen in their playoff run) down to AAA to start the season, they picked up former Cards closer Jason Isringhausen to add bullpen depth, picked up promising RF Matt Joyce in a trade with the Tiggers, and they made the best free agent signing of the offseason, picking up former Phillies OF Pat Burrell for almost nothing (2 years, $16 million) to be their DH, which is the one area they needed improvement. So they not only have all of their important pieces back from a World Series runner-up, but even made improvements to that team, yet everybody’s going to pick them third? Really?

I’m not saying the Red Sox and Yankees will be awful. Far from it actually, as I think the Red Sox will win the Wild Card and the Yankees will be at .500 or better, but there’s absolutely, positively no way either of these teams are better than the Rays. None.

While I’m 110% right about the Rays, I’m not so sure about anybody else in the AL- or NL for that matter. So for what it’s worth, here’s my predictions for everybody else:

AL Central- Cleveland (the AL West is the worst division in baseball, but the Central is second worst. Not a lot of good teams here. Everybody has some major holes, the Tribe have the fewest.)

AL West- Oakland (Anaheim’s starting rotation is in shambles due to injury, they don’t hit very well and their defenders, especially in the outfield are in sharp decline. Other than there’s a lot to love with the Halos)

Wildcard- Boston

NL East- New York Mets (they can't choke away the division three straight years, can they?)

NL Central- Chicago Cubs (not the game’s best team, but they will have the best record because they play in the NL and are just that much better than everyone else in this division)

NL West- LA Dodgers (will challenge the Cubbies for most wins)

Wildcard- um…Phillies? DBacks? Cards? Brewers? I’m going with the Braves, and not just because they won last night.

ALDS- Tampa over Oakland, Boston over Cleveland
NLDS- Chicago over Atlanta, LA Dodgers over NY Metropolitans

ALCS- Tampa over Boston (again)
NLCS- Dodgers over Cubbies

World Series- Tampa over LA

The Friday Free-For-All

2009-04-03T10:56:00.001-07:00

Questions, Comments, and Concerns about the Final Four, Jay Cutler to Da Bears, and more…

…Well that didn’t take long. It took less than 24 hours after word came late Wednesday that the Broncos were set on trading disgruntled/childish/baby/whiner Jay Cutler to make a deal, and Denver did really, really well. Getting two firsts, a third AND Kyle Orton (who’s better than you think) for Cutler and a fifth is incredible considering a) everyone and their mother knew Denver had no choice but to trade and b) teams have been very reluctant to part with high draft picks for players. To get TWO first rounders? Really, I know Broncos fans are probably bummed to lose a 25-year-old Pro Bowl quarterback, but that’s a great haul and their front office has a chance to more than make up for a loss. They have the 12th pick (their own) and 18th (Denver’s) picks in the first round of the upcoming draft, and as SI’com’s Don Banks mentioned yesterday, The Bronch (as Joel calls them) have plenty of directions they can go. They could stay put and nab KState’s Josh Freeman, or deal up to get USC QB Marc Sanchez. With as gawd-awful/horrible/craptastic as Denver’s D was last year, I’d be inclined to keep the two picks and either take Freeman and the best available defender, or use both #1’s on defense and draft a QB for development later. They could not have possibly hoped to do better once they decided Cutler had to go.

But what makes this so interesting is that it’s also a good deal for Chicago. On E!SPN.com right now they have a poll up of who got the better of this deal, and with almost 300,000 people weighing in, Denver is getting 52% of the vote right now. That’s pretty darn close. Did Da Bears give up a lot? Yes, yes they did. But they do get a 25 year old Pro-Bowl QB to add to an offense that wasn’t great last year, but could be sneaky good for 2009 with awesome 2nd yr back Matt Forte, a solid OLine, and…ok their receivers aren’t very good, but you never know. And in a crappy division (although not as crappy as the NFC West. Then again outside of the AL West, nothing other division in American sports is. What is it the west and crappy lately?), that could be enough, especially when it means two other teams, the Lions (stop laughing) and The Purple (stop crying- oh wait, that’s me whose crying about them really, truly, honestly ending camp with Tavaris Jackson as the starter) didn’t get the QB they so desparately needed. Oh what’s that? The Vikes don’t need him? They’re “happy with the two guys they have”? Brad Childress is like the Knight (we are the knights who say NEE!) in Monty Python’s Holy Grail who keeps having limbs chopped off yet he acts like everything’s fine. Is it a bad sign that my best hope as a Vikings fan for 2009 is for TJack to start- and suck- so that Brad Childress and the whole gang gets fired so we can get somebody in here who actually knows how to run an offense and develop a QB? Probably.

So anyway, the Bears were a middle-of-the-road team with an aging defense who needed to make a push or else, and showed some cahones by pushing all of their chips to the middle of the table (you know, just like the Vikes did last year in overpaying for Jared Allen. And just like they didn’t do this time around for Cutler, for reasons known only to NEE! Childress).

…Final Four this weekend, and I don’t think I’ll be able to watch either of the Saturday games. Par for the course for this year’s tourney as my fiancé and I just bought a house, and being that it was a foreclosure, all of our time has gone into cleaning and fixing, so I haven’t seen much at all in the way of March Madness. Saturday I’ll actually be missing games for my buddy Rich’s wedding, but if I wasn’t at that, I’d be at the new house, so I’d be missing out regardless. Oh well.

…From what I’ve heard and read of what I missed, I expect a UNC/UConn national final. I used to like UConn, but after all this stuff about Calhoun and his recruiting tactics and his comments about how much money he makes, well, I’m not such a big fan anymore. And for some reason, although Carolina fits all the criteria of The Evil Empire of college basketball, I still hate Duke way, way, way, WAY more than UNC. Actually, I don’t think I hate the Heels at all.

…while I hate Calhoun, I do not hate his center Thabeet. I’m torn on him in the NBA, as he has all the signs of Major Draft Bust because he’s shown very little offensive game, yet has been an unbelievable shot blocker and rebounder. St Louis Bilikens coach Rick Majerus was on Barreiro’s show yesterday (or maybe the day before. I pretty much listen to all of my radio on podcasts now, so I quickly lose track of when it was actually aired), and used the analogy of “in a world of blind men, the one-eyed man is king”, meaning that Thabeet is only awesome at shot blocking and rebound because there’s no true centers in college hoops anymore. While that’s true (and at 7’3 he better darn well be dominating the glass and the paint), I still feel like he could be intruiging in the NBA if all he’s asked to do is just that- block shots and rebounds. Would be a no-brainer pick for the Wolves if he’s available as the perfect compliment to Al Jefferson.

…speaking of the Wolves and their draft, if they somehow defied the odds, and their incredible run of bad luck in the lottery, and got the #1 pick, I wondered the following: the consensus #1 pick is Blake Griffin (and again, just from what I heard, he did nothing to dispel that with his play in the tourney. If he was already cemented as the best player before the tourney he would have…”re-cemented” his status there? Whatever. Anyway, Griffin is a true power forward, which is of course the one position the Wolves have filled (twice, actually). Blake not only played his college ball in Oklahoma, but is a native of Oklahoma City, so I wondered if the Thunder would be interested in dealing Kevin Durant (since he has a zero percent chance of resigning there once he hits free agency. Actually what’s less than a zero percent chance? He has a negative possibility of staying there) to Minnesota for Griffin, any or all of their other 3 #1’s, and anybody else on the roster not named Al Jefferson? Griffin would give them a franchise cornerstone to replace Durant, and since he’s from there, he’s the one star-potential player who would actually want to play there long-term. And he’d fit in fine with the versatile Jeff Green at forward (unlike the unversatile Kevin Love, who, just like Jefferson, is an all-offense no-defense power forward). I’d even, and actually gladly, throw in Randy Foye too, since the Stolen Sonics need a shooting guard, and I’m not sold Foye is a future all-star in this league (nice player? Yes. But he’s a 6’2 shooting guard without the potential of Dwyane Wade, OJ Mayo, or Allen Iverson. I’m skeptical to say the least).

…I thought of this as Jer and I were sitting through the first half of Stolen Sonics/Wolves at Target Center a few Sundays ago. I had gotten free lower bowl tickets (and by lower bowl I mean the very last row of the lower bowl. Actually, it was the very last row of the lower upper section- you know, where you take the little stairs up to three of four rows of seats below the luxury boxes? So “lower bowl” is kind of misleading), and had been interested in going (even though it was the Sunday of the Round of 32 in the NCAA tourney) for one reason: to see Kevin Durant.

Since early December when Durant was moved from shooting guard to his natural small forward position, he’s been averaging 27 pts and 7 boards, and has become one of the top 20 players in the NBA. Even on a March Madness Sunday against a T-Pups team with no Al Jefferson, I had to see for myself. And he did not disappoint. Durant is one of the most effortless scorers I’ve ever seen, and yes, this came against the Wolves, but his first half was impressive. He was 5-7 from the floor and 2-2 from the line for 12 points, shooting mostly mid-range one-dribble jumpers that looked as easy as a layup for him. He scored from wherever he wanted on whoever he wanted, and yet the Stolen Sonics still went to the immortal Nenad Kristic almost as much as KD in the first half. I guess it didn’t matter much in the end since OKC was up 20 at half.

I’d tell you all about Durant’s second half…except I didn’t see it. At halftime Jer says “Hey do you want to go down to NBA City for a couple of beers and watch some March Mad”- he didn’t even finish the sentence and I was out of my chair and down the stairs to NBA City (the bar/restaurant in the basement of Target Center). Despite Durant’s awesomeness, I couldn’t have more bored and completely regretful of my decision to attend the game. I paid zero dollars for the ticket, and I paid too much. I realize it’s unfair to judge the quality of the NBA by a Wolves/Stolen Sonics meaningless game in March (it’d be like judging college hoops by attending a game of Northwestern vs a Division II school in November), but man ALL of the worst parts of an NBA game were on display.

A half full building, zero energy from the players or fans, and rap music blaring DURING THE PLAY!!!!!!!!!! This has always been the most inexplicable thing to me, but it’s made maybe one zillion times worse in a situation like this. There’s a professional sporting event happening, and music is blaring during the play. You would never, ever, ever, EVER see this in baseball, football, or hockey. Never. It would be considered a travesty, a sham and a mockery of the sport- a trav-shama-mockery if you will (and I will). It can only be viewed as a blatant and desperate attempt to create an atmosphere of excitement and energy when there is none. It should be seen as the lowest of the low to create fan interest, and an admittance by the team and sport that their product is so bad and so boring that they have to play music during the play to entertain/distract their audience. Yet it’s commonplace in the NBA. Seeing it in this context it looks and sounds pathetic at best, and desperate at worst, and I couldn’t wait to get out of there.

The whole thing just seemed like a contrived used-car-salesmen pitch, and I wasn’t buying. Neither was Jer. He said he was trying to think of how to ask to leave, and I was thinking the same thing. Crazy. Apparently in the second half the Wolves scrubs made a run and only lost by 7, and Durant ended up with 35 effortless points in the win. And you know what? Sitting in NBA City in ridiculously comfy chairs in front of a flat-screen showing March Madness, eating buffalo wings and drinking happy hour-priced beer, I could have cared less. I could not be more turned off by the NBA right now, and will be turning all of my basketball-related interests next year towards college hoops (and I’m hoping and praying that the two big-time recruits Tubby brings in will make the Gophers infinitely more interesting to watch. Or that my wife-to-be lets me get an awesome sports package on Direct TV that lets me watch Gonzaga). Regardless, the Big 10’s “three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust” basketball style will still be more authentic and pleasing to watch than the NBA.

John Calipari is a Terrible Coach and Horrible Person

2009-04-01T14:01:00.002-07:00

Or so says E!SPN.com writer Pat Forde in his column today.

You know, I’ve been mourning the death of the newspaper industry, and I’m worried about what, if anything, will take its place. I love writing, always wanted to be a sportswriter, and appreciate the craft of writing a good story (I realize it’s hard to believe that since I update this blog once in a great never). I’m really worried that as newspapers fall by the wayside, one by one, we’re slipping further and further away from the standards and principles the industry started with, and that not just good journalism, but good storytelling, will die with it. I’m most worried about losing the watchdog that newspapers and media outlets have been and NEED to continue to be. For instance, on NPR Saturday morning, I learned how home builders in Texas have basically paid off the government there to pass laws so that they have zero accountability to home owners. Home builders in that state have almost no bylaws or rules to build homes, and the people who buy them are have no rights or means to recoup any losses or get any problems fix. This is one incident, but it’s one I would have not known about had NPR not done an extensive story on it. If it’d hadn’t been reported that AIG was using its bailout money to pay bonuses to THE PEOPLE WHO ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FINANCIAL CRISIS WE”RE CURRENTLY IN, do you think they’d be getting pressured to return the money? No way.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying all media is great and unbiased. There’s lots and lots and lots of crap out there, and yes for my conservative friends, the majority of the crap comes from the liberal media. But overall, if you have a news outlet you trust, there’s still valuable information to get and good stories to be told. I’m worried that when we lose newspapers, we’ll be moving still further away that.

I also find it interesting that Congress and many Americans are rushing to save the American auto industry from themselves. The Big Three, who through their own arrogance, stubbornness and greed have rendered themselves almost obsolete, are going to get billions of taxpayer dollars to continue making bad decisions. Yet the newspaper industry, who I believe is just as vital to American society, is being allowed to disappear. I’m not defending newspapers, not in the least. They’ve made the same mistakes as the auto industry, believing the public needed them instead of the other way around, and completely, totally, and utterly botched the internet era. First they ignored it, then scoffed at it, and now have tried in vain to copy it, which has only sealed their fate. For the record, I don’t think we should be saving either one of them (I thought this was a free market economy? No?) but I just find it amusing we have two major industries in this country who through greed, arrogance and horrible business plans have caused their own demise and will cost the loss of thousands upon thousands of jobs nationwide, and yet we’re bailing out one but not the other.

Anyway, that brings me back to Mr. Forde who, according to his wikipedia page, wrote for many years for the Courier-Journal in Louisville, KY before joining E!SPN. As a trained and seasoned newspaper journalist, you’d expect to see his writing reflect the integrity and standards by which he was trained in the excellent journalism department at the University of Missouri. Instead, he puts out a totally biased column with no facts to back up his most recent column about the University of Kentucky’s hiring of Memphis coach John Calipari to be the new men’s head basketball coach.

Forde’s column bashes the crap out of “Coach Cal”, equating the hiring to a bad April Fool’s Day joke. He insinuates that Calipari is a cheater and shady character, and that he’s a bad hire because he’s going to add to Kentucky’s scandal-ridden past. His evidence? Not much, really. Yes, Calipari had a 1996 Final Four run with UMass wiped from the books of NCAA history because junior star Marcus Camby accepted gifts from a prospective agent. But as Forde points out, Calipari denied knowledge of the incident, and neither him nor the program were charged with major violations. His other evidence of Calipari’s seediness? Winning. No seriously, winning. He holds the way Calipari has won at Memphis, mostly with one-and-done players and JUCO or prep school transfers, as a serious offense. Apparently Forde prefers the Coach K approach of recruiting clean-cut white kids with little to no NBA futures, winning lots of lots of regular season games, getting high seeds in the tournament, and then flaming out by the Sweet 16 or before. Shame on Calipari for wanting more, and for recruiting the best players instead of the best student athletes to get it.

So according to Pat Forde, Calipari was the wrong hire because of a superstar player taking gifts without his knowledge, and for recruiting incredibly talented players who are in school just to play basketball. You know, because the rest of the 300+ D1 schools hold their basketball teams to Ivy League-like standards of academics and graduation rates. Puh-lease.

It’s obvious Forde doesn’t like Calipari. I don’t know if they’ve had run-ins during Forde’s writing career, if he’s just a big Rick Pitino fan (current Louisville coach, and a guy who has not gotten along with Calipari AT ALL. Probably because they’re a little too much alike), or if he just doesn’t like the way he handles himself, but it’s pretty low to write a column lambasting a guy with no evidence to support it. If he doesn’t like Coach Cal he should just say it, instead of using blog-like hearsay, rumors and zero facts to back up his opinion.

Forde is supposed to be a college sport expert, and yet he fails to grasp the basic and obvious fact that college coaching in football and basketball is not a personality contest- it’s about winning. It always has been. I think it’s insane to question the hire of a man who has won big at two “non BCS” schools in UMass and Memphis, and has never been convicted of a major recruiting violation. This is exactly like Alabama hiring Nick Saban as football coach. There are plenty of people in Baton Rouge and Miami who hate him for leaving their football teams high and dry. There’s plenty of stories and articles quoting people who say he can be, well, the word rhymes with “bassbowl.” He may not be the nicest guy in the world, but you’d probably get hung from city hall in Tuscaloosa if you were caught saying anything bad about Saban today. Whatever you think of the man’s personality, he can recruit, he can coach, and he can win. And isn’t that what big-time college sports is all about?

Calipari is just like Saban. Whatever you think of his personality, he’s won wherever he’s been in college, and he’ll win-and fast- at Kentucky. He’s going to bring the top recruiting class he had at Memphis with him to Lexington, he’ll talk Kentucky’s key guys into returning, and they’ll be back on the national landscape from Day 1. It was absolutely the right move by Kentucky, and when they’re back in the Final Four in three years or less, you won’t hear a peep from Wildcat fans about Calipari’s personality or recruiting tactics. Winning will do that.

So thanks to Forde for restoring my faith in the journalistic integrity he’s supposed to have- or maybe for securing my belief that those ideals are already dead and gone, and the newspaper industry is getting what it deserves.

Cutler? We Don't Need No Stinking Cutler!

2009-04-01T06:48:00.002-07:00

At least that's what Vikings brass at Winter Park seem to be telling themselves. Word came last night from Broncos owner Pat Bowlen that Jay Cutler is officially on the trade block. This after their QB apparently did not return phone calls for 10 straight days as the Broncos tried to convince Cutler they really DID want him to be their QB- even though they made a failed attempt to land former-Patriot-now-Chief Matt Cassell. I think we've been through what happened in Denver already, but just in case, here's the cliff notes version: Denver was really, REALLY foolish to try to deal Cutler and not get it done. If new coach Josh McDaniels knew from the moment he was hired that he wanted to bring Cassell with him from New England, he should have been on the phone with his old colleagues the moment he was hired in Denver. Instead, all reports indicate Denver waited way too long, and missed the opportunity to make a deal. That wasn't smart.

However, Cutler pulling a hissy fit because the Broncos tried to deal him is also pretty dumb. It sounds like McDaniels has made every attempt to reconcile with Cutler and apologize, and the former Vandy standout has refused to listen. Be a man and go out and prove to Denver why they're lucky the deal never happened, and prove why you're as good as you think you are. Don't pull this crap.

Yet he is pulling this crap, and now a 25 year old quarterback who I would say is one of the ten best QB's in the league is available- and the Vikings seem only mildly interested, which makes perfect considering...ok it makes no sense. None sense. Completely and totally non-sensical. Is The Purple head coach Brad Childress so infatuated with Tavaris Jackson that he can't see doing anything and everything to get Jay Cutler is the safest way to keep his job? Jackson has proven he is not a starting QB in this league (and I don't think ever will be), and Sage Rosenfels has proven little more so far. This on a team where it seems the Vikes have done everything possible to address needs and do whatever it takes to put a winning team on the field- except at the position that matters most.

I'd love to know whose decision this has been? They're willing to go all-out to get Jared Allen, sign Bernard Berrian and Madieau Williams to huge deals, and make a genuine effort to put a Super Bowl caliber team in Minnesota- except at quarterback. Why hasn't owner Ziggy Wilf sat down and asked his staff this? Why hasn't he held Childress and the Triangle of Power at Winter Park accountable for not having gotten this team a quarterback? If I'm ZIggy, I'm telling Childress that if you believe this strongly about T-Jack and you do not make every effort to get Cutler, then if things don't work out this year he's gone. Maybe he is anyway, but I'd love to see some sort of rationale for all of this.

Hey maybe the Vikes are working the back channels for Cutler. We do know they were in on the intial Cutler trade talks when Denver was trying to deal him to Tampa in a three way trade to get Cassell, but so far have been very quiet. If the Vikes don't make a serious run at getting the disgruntled Denver signal-caller, I hope those in charge in Minnesota will get the message that they did indeed need Cutler- and I hope they realize it when they're handed their pink slips.

So Far, March Madness Not Very Mad

2009-03-20T11:44:00.001-07:00

Quite docile, actually. So far, we've seen few upsets and few exciting games. Of the 16 games played Thursday, a grand total of 4 had a lower seed win. Three of those four can't even be called upsets because one was a 9 seed over an 8 (A&M beating BYU), and two were 10 over 7 seeds (Maryland thumping Cal and Michigan squeezing by Clemson). Since the tournament went to the current 64 team format in 1985, an 8 has beaten a 9 only 46% of the time and a 7 has beaten a 10 just 62%. The lower seed winning in those two matchups aren't upsets, they're coin flips. And my coin wasn't working very well, as I missed on all three of those (the Maryland one I can't believe. Not that they won, but that I didn't pick it. How could I miss that one?!?) as well as LSU over Butler (another 8 vs 9), and UCLA escaping with their lives 65-64 over 11 seed VCU. If you had UCLA going any further than Saturday, I'd be worried. They looked awful, and their worst best player, Darren Collison, looked awful for the fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament, yet they let him hog the ball and take all the shots. Brilliant.

The games so far today were at least more exciting, especially the Kansas/NDSU matchup in Minneapolis, yet it's resulted in a grand total of zero upsets. My Utah St over Marquette upset special of the day missed by one measly point, and NDSU gave Kansas a scare, but the Jayhawks held on to win. At least that's what I heard since the fine folks at CBS moved us to Oklahoma St/Tennessee for almost the entire second half!?!?!? I don't pretend to be the smartest person in the world, but how the hell does that make any sense? Yep, the Bison were down a few possessions for most of that second half, but they weren't getting blown out and were in it until the end, yet instead of getting that one, we got a close game between an 8 and 9 seeds. In the first round, does ANYBODY really care about the 8/9 games, except for the fans of the teams involved? I'd much rather watch a close game where an actual upset is possible (NDSU over Kansas definitely counts) instead of a close game between 8/9's in which, as I stated earlier, the 9 seed actually wins more of. Just a bad, bad effort by CBS on that one.

Other thoughts as the day rolls along...
...As bad as I've done so far in my bracket, I still have all of my sweet 16 teams alive. Famous last words...

...I have Memphis playing in the National Final, and they could not have looked worse yesterday. I really hope they were just playing down to the level of their competition...

...My two favorite teams- and I know I'm only supposed to have one- Washington and Gonzaga both looked really solid yesterday. I thought the Huskies, who won the Pac 10 regular season, received a really unfair matchup by drawing SEC tournament champ Mississippi State. Turned out to be nothing to worry about, as the Dawgs thumped the Bulldogs 71-58 in a game that was never really in doubt. Good thing I picked Purdue to beat Washington tomorrow. Dang it! Gonzaga struggled in the first half against Akron (Hey did you know these teams are called the Zips and Zags? The Zips and Zags! Isn't that great? Isn't that funny? Isn't that hilarious? I was mildly amused the first time I heard it and just got more and more annoyed the next 9000 times it was pointed out this week) and then just abused Akron in the second half. It was impressive to watch as they did anything they wanted. My heart wanted Gonzaga over UNC in the sweet 16, but my head went with the Heels. I just hope we get that matchup next weekend.

...They run the same six commercials for the tournament, and hey, the nice folks at Exxon oil (you know, the same Exxon Oil who last year had the largest profits of any company in the history of our planet) want you to know today's gas has 95% less emmissions than it did in 1970. Great. It's still gas, which ruins the ozone, and it still makes us dependent on foreign oil. Let us know when you develop something to run our cars that's not, you know, made of gasoline.

...Jer had the line of the night: "Watching Gopher basketball is like watching Gopher football. The defense isn't as good as advertised, and the offense can't score." I laughed until I realized I was crying. They could not buy a bucket in the second half, and really couldn't stop Texas from scoring. Other than that they looked pretty good.

...As my buddy Kyle pointed out today, while watching the NDSU/Kansas game (at least the parts CBS actually let us watch) it was hard not to think the Gophers really could have used native Minnesotans Cole Aldrich of Kansas or Ben Woodside of NDSU (or most of the guys on NDSU's roster for that matter. 8 of them are from Minnesota). It's not Tubby's fault, but still.

...Other exciting things from yesterday were...um...well...yeah how about today's games? NDSU/Kansas, Marquette/Utah St, and Tennessee/Oklahoma St all went down to the wire, and so far the second games are all close, so we'll see how the 2nd halves go.

...If you're wondering whether beer or iced tea went better with my lunch-breakfast today of bacon, eggs, and hashbrowns, the answer is a resounding yes!

...For the record, I have Wake, Michigan State, UConn, Memphis, UNC, Oklahoma, Pitt, and Nova in the Elite 8, Memphis over Wake and Pitt over UNC in the Final Four, and Pitt beating Memphis for the National Title. Sorry I didn't get that out sooner so you'd know who not to pick. Enjoy the March Mildness everybody.

Why College Hoops Is Superior to the NBA

2009-03-13T10:15:00.004-07:00

On the latest BS Report Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman (Jer’s been on the Klosterman bandwagon for awhile. Front row seats, popcorn, and a cup holder for his Miller Lite on the Klosterman bandwagon. Me? Just getting on board in the back with the bench seating. Getting pretty crowded. Need to read a couple of his books so I can move up. Wait, while we’re on the subject of Klosterman, his landmark/trademark book that made him semi-famous was Fargo Rock City, which from what Jer says is about 80’s hair metal. I just never got into 80’s hair metal. Honestly, I didn’t really find my own musical identity until the early 90’s when I hit high school and discovered “Grunge” –first cd I ever owned was STP’s Core, which, let’s be honest, is pretty awesome. My first tape? Yeah don’t ask- so I was reliant on my older sister for music since back in those days we listened to things called “cassette tapes” on “walkmans” while riding in the car. Why didn’t we each have a Walkman? I have no idea, but we didn’t. Anyway, my parents wouldn’t let me listen to Bon Jovi or Motley Crue or G’N’R when they were big anyway. Does the music your kids listen to REALLY make that big of a difference? If it does I think there’s a lot more than just bad music going on. Where was I going with this? Oh yeah so the wife-to-be and I were watching TV Wednesday night, distraught that Lost was a rerun- honest to goodness there’s only like 13 or 14 episodes in a season now: HOW IN THE HELL CAN THEY JUSTIFY RERUNS?!?!?!?- and stumbled upon VH1’s Top 100 songs of the 80’s. Three hours later we found out Bon Jovi’s “Living on a Prayer” was voted the #1 song of the decade. Top 5 song, sure, but how is Billie Jean by Michael Jackson not #1? Granted, Jackson is a total raving complete nutjob now, and when I tell my future kids about how famous he used to be they’re going to think me weird, but doesn’t Michael Jackson and Billie Jean define 80’s music much more than Bon Jovi? Maybe not. All of this is to say I now do appreciate some hair metal like Bon Jovi, Def Leppard, AC/DC and G’N’R’- at their apex during the Appetite for Destruction days, was there even 5 bands better all-time? Honestly, was there?- I still feel the 90’s were a much better decade for music, or at least the first six or seven years of the 90’s) were discussing whether college or pro hoops is better, with Klosterman falling on the correct side that college hoops IS not just superior, but FAR superior to the NBA. I don’t even see how this is an argument.

Simmons’ had two major points, the first of which I agree with: with so many guys in college being one-and-done, it’s difficult to follow the sport from season to season because there’s SO much turnover. Yep, there’s really no defense for that one, and it’s the reason I don’t watch more college hoops, because it’s difficult to get attached to anyone. However, when the NBA has another lockout in 2011, IF the sport returns intact, you’d better believe it will return with at least a 20 year old age minimum, meaning guys will have to stay at least two years. I would even say to go the extra mile and make it like the NFL, where players have to be out of high school for three years before they’re draft eligible. It would just be better for everyone involved. And please don’t whine about guys like Lebron, Kobe, KG and others who you think didn’t need college. Other than Lebron and Moses Malone, they did. No really, they did. I’ve been over this at length before, but the others, even Kobe, didn’t dominate until they had at least two years in the league. This makes college basketball more fun to follow because the stars stick around, and it makes the NBA better because the college kids are better prepared to come in make an impact right away.

Simmons’ other point was that the level of talent is so much less in college that it’s hard to watch, to which I would say- really Bill? When exactly? For the last eight minutes of the game when guys in the NBA actually try? Because for the first 40 minutes of an NBA game, players are just out there d***ing around because there’s 81 other games in the season and they’re guaranteed their bloated salaries, so who really cares? Not the players. Read Simmon’s column about the Clippers blowing a 19 point lead with 11 minutes left to the Cavs, and he defeats his own argument. For the first three quarters Lebron James, who is unquestionably the best player in the league right now, jacks up threes and takes bad shots, and not until the fourth does he start playing smart, intense basketball. This is true of 99.9% of games not involving Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and on some nights, still Jason Kidd (while Paul and Williams are better players, Nash is still the best at running an uptempo offense and getting his teammates not just involved, but in position to take smart shots right from the opening tip). It’s sloppy, poorly played basketball by guys who are infinitely talented, yet are so coddled and getting paid so much, the vast majority of them can’t be bothered to try the entire game simply because they don’t have to (for me, this goes back to a much larger problem that is AAU basketball. It’s here that the idea that the super talented kids should be coddled and treated differently and not forced to learn the fundamentals starts, and it hurts everyone. If the NBA really wants to improve its product and level of fan interest, start at its roots by taking over the AAU and forcing teams and players to practice much more than they play. Force them to learn the fundamentals, and maybe we wouldn’t be stuck with a professional league where like four guys- literally four- are capable of hitting a mid-range jump shot).

College hoops, on the other hand, has passion, intensity and energy, and while the talent level is certainly less than the NBA, it’s still far better basketball to watch because the guy’s give a crap. Winning means EVERYTHING for these kids, and the fans, and it shows. In the NBA? Not so much. It’s also much better structured basketball to watch because teams run an offense AND will even run a defense and press. Crazy ideas, I know.

Klosterman was also right in shooting down Simmon’s argument about college hoops and minor league baseball being the same. Wrong. The sole purpose of minor league baseball is to develop the good players for the major leagues. That’s it. Winning really, truly is secondary down there. Sure, they like to fill the seats, but the major league team is paying the bills, so it’s all about developing the players with the most potential regardless of win/loss record. I’m not saying that’s bad, I’m just saying that’s how it is. In college sports, it’s all about winning- oh, um and of course, um, going to class and being good student athletes. Right, sure it is. But seriously it’s all about winning.

So if you’ve got a better argument on why the NBA is a better basketball product than college hoops, I’d love to hear it, but I can’t fathom what it would be. Yes, the star players only sticking around a year definitely hurts the interest in college basketball, and I’ve watched a lot less than I used to because of it, but I’ve still watched far more college hoops than pro this year. And as general rule, if you stick to the Big East, ACC, Big 12, Pac 10, and any game involving Gonzaga, you’re guaranteed to see the best the college game has to offer (sorry Big 10 fans- that conference is just gawd-awful to watch. Truly, stab my eyes out with a pen awful. Unless you like 54-52 games with shooting percentages in the 30’s. In which case, you almost might enjoy women’s basketball). If you want to watch the best the NBA has to offer, better wait until the playoffs- and that’s only IF you get a game where terrible refing doesn’t ruin/decide the outcome. Good luck with that.

Why Doesn't America Care?

2009-03-04T07:49:00.003-08:00

Baseball is the Great American Past Time, and a game it may be more passionate about than any other (as is evidenced by all of the over reaction to the steroids and HGH stuff and yet no reaction about the exact same thing happening in football). So you'd think the good folks of the U-S-of-A would be fired up for the World Baseball Classic, pitting most of America's best against most of the rest of the world's best, right?

Nope. The PBA gets more attention from the American people, and media for that matter, than the WBC gets. In the Latin American countries participating, they're basically taking a national holiday for every game so everyone can watch. In Japan, they got 30,000 people out just to watch their team PRACTICE! In Canada, major league all-stars like Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, and Russell Martin have the country infected with baseball fever!!! Ok just kidding, Canadians still only care about hockey (because you don't know, I thought I'd fill you in: it's Trade Deadline Day in the NHL, which means in Canada, all three crappy sports networks are running non-stop TDD coverage from 8am EST till the deadline at 2pm. Seriously. All day.), but this actually leads me to a larger point: every country seems to have a sport that they're insane about when it comes to international competition-except the USA. My question is why?

Canada, as I've told you many times before, takes their interest in Canada competiting in international hockey events far beyond rabid, insane or intense. The identity of our entire country is tied into how we do at the Olympics, World Cup of Hockey, and the annual World Juniors (where we've won five straight gold). There's already an internet frenzy on who will be on Canada's Olympic team in Vancouver- which is still 11 MONTHS AWAY!!! ANd I am not immune to this, as I can't wait either, and will be watching every single Canada game-and every hockey game I can- of the Olympic tournament (I basically got fired from a job during the 2000 Olympics because I skipped work twice to watch Canada's games- and then a third time because somebody sprung tickets to the LAkers/Wolves game on me at the last minute. Literally, I'm grabbing my keys and about to head out the door to work, and a buddy calls and says "hey I have an extra ticket to see Shaq and Kobe. Game starts in two hours. Wanna go?" I thought about this for maybe 1.2 seconds-this was during the height of the Shaq/Kobe dynasty- before agreeing, then hung up, phoned into work sick for the 3rd time in two weeks, and went to the game. In truth, that was the first job I'd ever called in sick to when I wasn't, I hadn't signed up for shifts as I was planning to quit anyway, so really, what could they do?).

Ok so I guess that proves I hated that job and it didn't take much to for me to skip it once I started to, as much as I would have done ANYTHING to watch those Canada games!! The World Junior Tournament runs from Boxing Day (Dec 26th) till early January, and I watched the first couple of games while I was at home, then watched the rest on the interweb on tsn.ca. I'm beyond passionate about Canadian hockey, yet I could only be bothered to watch one period of the Canucks/Wild game last night. The international sport I just HAVE to watch is hockey, and it's the same for virtually every Canadian. As mentioned, in Japan and parts of Latin America like the Dominican Republic and Venezuala, it's baseball. Russia loves hockey, in Austrailia it's one of the long Olympic swimming races (I think it's the men's 1600 but I can't remember exactly. I just remember for one of the super long Olympic swimming races, the announcers said "this is bigger than the Super Bowl in Austrailia." Well there you go), in Norway it's cross country skiing (or maybe the one where you cross country ski THEN shoot something), in Austria it's downhill skiing, for India it's cricket, and in most of the rest of the world it's football, or as we'd say, soccer.

So why on earth is there not a sport that Americans get all fired up about internationally? I really would have thought baseball would be that sport, and you'd hear people debating things like whether Joe Mauer or Brian McCann should be catching or Jimmy Rollins or Derek Jeter should play short, or SOME big level of interest. Instead? Bubkis. I'll admit the WBC still has it's share of issues to work out, but I thought the idea of an international baseball competition would excite more people here in the US, yet it seems like folks could care less. Basketball is the third largest sport in America, and while people were upset when the once dominant Team USA started losing to Greece and Argentina and the Euro nations with 1/16th the talent, it wasn't the level of national crisis and epidemic like when Canada didn't medal in the 1998 Olympics for hockey, or when England doesn't qualify for the World Cup.

Maybe people here think it's pathetic or sad when a country puts that much of itself into how they fare in a sport in an international competition, but I happen to think it's healthy and great that we care that much. So for a country like America, whose citizens love their country and take pride in it as much or more than any other, and who love sports as much or more than any other, WHY don't they care about competiting in international events?

I just don't get it.

Some Friday Football Free Agent...Nuggets? Let's go with Nuggets

2009-02-27T09:34:00.005-08:00

Sorry, couldn't think of another word that started with F...

...Sage is here! Sage is here! START PRINTING THOSE VIKINGS CHAMPIONSHIP T-SHIRTS!!!! Sage is here! Yep, NFL free agency started today and so far the Vikings big move has been to trade a 4th round pick for 31 year old former Houston Texans QB Sage Rosenfels. Put down the celebratory bottle of champaigne and try for a minute to think that maybe, just maybe, there's an outside chance Sage isn't any more of an answer than Gus Freotte was. Or Brooks Bollinger. Or Brad Johnson. Since Brad Childress has been coach we've been looking for a viable option at quarterback, and all we've gotten is a horrible T-Jack and little to nothing to compete against him. While I believe Sage is probably an upgrade over Freotte, I'm not sure how much of an upgrade- and especially when it cost The Purple a fourth rounder.

It's not like Sage is ready to break out in his mid to late 20's. The guy is 31 and was given every opportunity to be The Man in Houston for the past three seasons and didn't get it done. In eight years in the league he's played in just 32 games- an average of 4 a season- and has just 30 TD's to 29 INT's. Yes he has a career QB rating of 81.4, and yes his career completion percentage is a solid 62%, so I suppose there's still a chance of him being a late bloomer, but what was wrong with Jeff Garcia again? Yes Garcia's 39, but as a free agent he would not have cost a draft pick, and in the last two years with the Bucs was 14-11 in 25 regular season starts with a QB rating of 92, 64% completion% and 25 TDs to just 10 picks. Oh and he ran a very similar offense in Tampa to Chilly's "kick ass" offense. I don't get it, but then again, I don't understand why Chilly has stuck with T-Jack this long and has refused to bring in or pursue or draft a viable starter.

...Another one from the "this would make WAY too much sense to happen" file: free agent Bengals WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (championship!) told ESPN yesterday how much he'd love to be in Minnesota playing with Adrian Peterson. Ok sure he's visiting Seattle today and texted a Philadelphia radio station saying basically that "if the Eagles wanted him he'd be in Philly tomorrow", the point is there's a legit #1 wideout avaiable in free agency, and the Vikings have shown zero interest. Z-E-R-O. In the last three years all TJ has done is AVERAGE 98 catches 1,043 yards and 8 TD's. Good thing that's not EXACTLY the type of player the Vikings need to take pressure off both whoever the below-average-need-all-the-help-he-can-get quarterback will be and Bernard Berrian. But nope, so far, zero interest.

...Sliding under the radar a bit in all the free agency talk was the troubling news today out of California that could doom the Vikings future in Minnesota. The City of Industry, a Los Angeles suburb, made the no-brainer decision to approve a proposal for an $800 million stadium that would be entirely paid for by Majestic Real Estate Co. Yeah that's not good. The company can start shopping for an NFL team April 1st, and you'd better believe the NFL won't stand in their way, as they would love to get a franchise back into the country's second largest market. While Minnesota tax payers are absolutely doing the right thing by refusing to pay for a new stadium for billionaire owner Ziggy Wilf, the NFL won't hesitate to let him move the team to a brand new stadium in LA if he makes a good faith effort to get one built in Minnesota. As much as I wouldn't want to see another city lose their team, if you're a Vikings fan and you want The Purple to stay in MInnesota, you'd better start hoping another franchise like Jacksonville, San Diego, New Orleans or somebody else jumps at the offer first, because you know Ziggy WILL move the team if given the opportunity. The clock starts April 1, which for Vikes fans could be the sickest April Fool's Day joke ever.

Junior Comes Home

2009-02-19T08:33:00.002-08:00

Unless you're a Mariner fan or grew up in the Pacific Northwest, you don't and probably shouldn't care that Ken Griffey Jr. signed a one year deal with the Mariners yesterday. Heck, considering he's 39, and is coming off a 2008 where he hit .249/.353/.424 with just 18 HR's and an OPS+ of only 101 with well below average defense for a corner outfielder, I probably shouldn't care much either. But I do. I really, really do. I got a big smile on my face when I saw Junior was coming back to Seattle.

To put it in perspective for the Minnesotans, this would be like Kevin Garnett returning in a few years to play his last season or two as a Timberwolf. Actually, that's still not quite right, as the Wolves have never been close to the #1 team in Minnesota, even when KG led them to the Conference Finals against the Lakers. The only comparison would be if Kirby Puckett had played 10 years in Minnesota, then left in his prime (Junior left at the ripe old age of 28) to be closer to home, and then returned to finish his last year or so as a Twin. I wasn't around these parts when Puckett played here, but from everything I've seen and heard and been told, he's the most popular athlete to ever play in the Land of 10,000 Lakes (and if I'm wrong, the tell me who was more. Maybe KG after all?).

That was Griffey for Seattle and its fans, and for me he's my favorite athlete of all-time, ahead of Mario Lemieux, Shawn Kemp, Anthony Carter and Barry Sanders. In his first 10 years in Seattle, Junior was one of the greatest baseball players who ever lived, a true five-tool talent who we're 99.9% sure did it clean. He was the best player in the 1990's (while I'd hear arguments for Barry Bonds or Frank Thomas, Junior was better than both) with the sweetest swing I've ever seen. While a few players hit more bombs than Griffey, nobody has ever looked better doing it. And in the field he was just as fun to watch, with seemingly unlimited range, a cannon arm, and the ability to scale walls to rob home runs like Spiderman.

In the mid 90's the Mariners were threatening to leave Seattle for Tampa if they didn't get a new ball park (sound familiar, Twins fans?) but Griffey led the team to an unforgettable trip to the playoffs, Mariners fever swept King County and the next thing we knew ground was being broken for Safeco Field. But by the time the park opened Junior was on his way out of town, shaken by the death of his good friend golfer Payne Stewart, who died in a plane crash. Griffey wanted to be closer to family and friends in Florida, and ended up pulling a less-than-classy move by telling the M's he ONLY wanted to go to Cincinnati. At the time, Griffey was on pace to break Hank Aaron's all-time home run record, and had a chance to end up as the greatest player ever.

But once he got dealt to the Reds from 2000 until last year, injuries derailed his career, and he was lost in all the hype of McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds. He returns to Seattle in 2009 as a 39 year old who should really only be used as a DH against right handed pitching (although Junior claims his knee is now 100% healthy, which he says means his power returns and makes him a capable outfielder again. I'm skeptical at best). The M's won't be the worst team in the league again, but they probably won't compete for a pennant either, so I'm not sure it makes much sense to have Junior playing ahead of younger players who need to develop. The chances of him ending his career on a high note with a strong season and perhaps one more shot at the postseason are pretty slim and yet I sit here today giggling at the thought of him hitting his first bomb into the right field seats at Safeco that were built for him. Junior is back where he belongs, to finish his career in Seattle. And just for today, that's all I care about.

Minnesota Timberwolves Post All-Star Break Report

2009-02-18T10:11:00.002-08:00

Well here we are post NBA all-star break with no real trade rumors to discuss (in past years there’s been lots and lots of rumors and speculation and then nothing ever happens. This year it’s been a refreshing change to have little to no rumors or speculation and know nothing will happen), so what better time to talk about your Minnesota Timberwolves? After a 110-102 loss to Warshington last night, the T-Pups are 17-35, on pace for about 30 wins and a bottom 10 finish, or right about where we thought they’d be before the season started. And by “we” I mean any person who doesn’t work in the Wolves front office that watches a little bit of basketball.

Yep, before the season started I told you the following, all of which have played out:

Al Jefferson is an all-star- on offense. He is atrocious defensively, and thus far in his career has shown zero ability or desire to play D. If he's going to be your franchise cornerstone (and Glen Taylor locking him up to a long-term extension before the season tells me he is), you MUST compliment him with a Samuel Dalembert-type center or post player that can defend the paint. What you should absolutely positively not do is team him with an equally bad defensive player, no matter how much you think they’ll compliment each other offensively.
Ryan Gomes- probably your best all-around player, but on a good team, he'd be a 6th man.
Craig Smith- your most consistent post player other than Big Al, and on a good team, he'd be 9th or 10th in the rotation.
Bassy Telfair- a backup point guard- on this team, or any other. If he's your starter, you're in trouble.
Corey Brewer- excellent perimeter defender and a real high flyer, but can't dribble or shoot.
Mike Miller- On a championship team he’s a third or fourth option. Great outside shooter (career 41% 3 point) and an excellent defensive rebounder for a 2 guard, but he's not a go-to guy, and he's not a good defender. At all.

Any questions? The Jefferson injury was devastating, as he turned into one of the five best scorers on the block in the L, and was actually showing signs of hope on defense. As a basketball fan, I hope he rebounds fully from the knee injury, but as a big guy you wonder how close to 100% he’ll ever get? Just sad to see one of the few good things the Wolves have done end the season this way. Everything else stated above has been proven correct.

But that’s not to say I know everything. There were a few things to be learned from this first half, as I also said the following:
The jury remains out on Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, and this is a pivotal year for both to prove they deserve new contracts when their rookie deals expire soon.

Once McHale took over as coach and moved Foye to the two, he’s proven to be a legitimate player there, and looks like a #1 or #2 scoring option for years to come. At his size he’s never going to be a great one-on-one defender, but plays the passing lanes well. McCants, on the other hand, stinks and will be on the first bus out of town when the season ends. He could have been packaged with Miller, Jason Collins’ expiring contract, and any one of the Wolves four 1st rounders in the upcoming draft and traded for something worthwhile (do the phones not work in Portland? Does McHale not know Kevin Pritchard’s number out there? Does McHale even have a phone? How can you not make a deal with Portland for one of their many, many, many young players?!?!?!?!), but instead McHale- I MEAN Jim Stack and Freddy Hoiberg- are content on doing absolutely nothing and hoping their flawed team magically will be a playoff contender next year. Good luck with that.

(Actually, hold on. As I type this it looks like the phones at 600 1st Avenue ARE working after all, as Marc Stein is reporting on E!SPN that Minnesota is interested in Chicago PG Kirk Hinrich. It’s probably just smoke and nothing will get done but at least they recognize a need for a real point guard.)

Something else we’ve learned is that Kevin Love is a damn good rebounder. A rebounding machine, even. One of the top 10 rebounding rates in the league (21.2), I’m going to have to revise my ceiling from “a 6’8 Brad Miller” to “a 6’8 Brad Miller who can board.” Yeah I should probably drop Brad Miller from his comparison entirely. I STILL don’t see how Love works long-term with Jefferson because neither one of them are good defensively, but if he can continue to rebound this well as his minutes increase, you’re looking at nightly double-double (in 2009 he’s averaging 12 points and 10 boards ) with good passing skills. That’s a pretty nice package, and better than I hoped for out of him. Still, when Jefferson returns next year, I’d still rather have a nucleus of Big Al, Foye and OJ Mayo, but instead I’ll just hope the two big guys can figure out the defensive end.

For the rest of the year I’d hope the young guys play a lot and get as much experience as possible. If indeed they do nothing at the deadline, there’ll be plenty of trades available this summer. It’s widely considered a weak draft crop, but luckily for the Wolves it’s deep on point guards. Still, use the lottery pick (hey with the Jefferson injury at least the Clippers won’t be getting their pick this year) on a point guard and try to deal the rest for more talented young players. It’s about the best you can hope for right now, since it’s a foregone conclusion McHale will be back in some capacity next season, and as long as he’s around, whether as the coach, GM, or popcorn seller, he’ll be influential in any and all decisions. So Wolves fans, follow this team as you always have: hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Timberwolves basketball- it's FAAAAAAAANNNNNNTASTIC!!

A Bad Economy and Professional Sports: A Silver Lining?

2009-02-17T08:49:00.004-08:00

Professional sports teams are bloated and living off the fat of its fans. We pay outrageous prices to attend games and pay for brand new stadiums so millionaire players and billionaire owners can become even richer. We pour our hearts, souls, and hard-earned money into our pro teams in hopes that they'll win us a title, and yet we're often rewarded with poor managment (Timberwolves) or owners who either pocket the money instead of spending it on the team (hello Twins!) or spend enough to be competitive but not enough to truly win (Suns owner Robert Sarver is a perfect example).

In the tough economic times we're facing, I don't like the prospects of anybody losing a job. I'm very thankful to have the job I have, and hopefully will have for a long time to come. But it's difficult to look at professional sports in America right now, and NOT see that there could be some very tough times ahead for some franchises and their employees. Relocation, and perhaps even contraction, could be a real possibility by 2010, and again, while I would hate to see people lose their jobs (and by "people" I don't mean the players or greedy owners, but those behind the scenes folks working their tails off to try and make it work), it could be actually be a good thing for sports fans.

One is that leagues that rely heavily on ticket sales could be in for a world of hurt (we're already seeing it in hockey and basketball) which could result in the relocation or contraction of teams. Ok, this actually doesn't favor anybody, but if you're a fan of a team in no danger of losing it's team a better supported or smaller league is a good thing. It would obviously not be good for fans (or employees) of cities that would lose teams, but the reality is that they weren't supporting the team enough to merit keeping it. Putting a team in a stronger market (like the NBA going back to Seattle or the NHL relocating a team in Canada) makes the league stronger, as would contracting a few teams by making the talent pool smaller and deeper, and the league more competitive. The NFL is the one pro sport that should be almost completely immune to this because they make SO much money from their TV contract. While owners won't admit it, published reports say that because of the TV money, NFL franchises basically are in the black before they ever receive one dollar from ticket sales, parking, merchandising or concessions.

The second thing no league, not even the NFL, is immune from is that cities and states will no longer be willing to pay for new stadiums and arenas. This is what I'm most excited about because owners won't be able to hold fans hostage by making threats like "build me a new arena or I'm moving to a city that will!" because there won't be any other cities willing to do it.

Here then is how the economy could effect the pro sports leagues in America (I couldn't even begin to care about how this effects NASCAR or MLS):

WNBA
Bill Simmons knows some pretty connected people, and while he talked about NBA basketball being in trouble in a few cities, the one that jumped out at me was him hearing that WNBA is all but dead. Again, sad that people lose their jobs but come on, the WNBA has been a charity case for the NBA from day one and has NEVER made money. Ever. Look, it's all well and good to promote women's athletics, but I've never understood trying to force a women's professional league down our throats. High school and college athletics are important for women and should be funded by those institutions so that women have an opportunity to play, just like men's sports like golf or swimming aren't revenue generating sports but should be supported where they can be. But a pro league? Pro leagues should exist only if there are fans who are willing to pay to go watch it. Because fans have not and will not embrace a women's professional basketball league does not mean we're a bunch of sexist bigots, it means women's basketball is boring as hell to watch and there's no way I, or apparently anyone else, could be convinced to pay money to see it. Women's tennis, golf, beach volleyball and figure skating are doing very well because people want to pay to see it. If women complain about not enough support for the WNBA, then maybe more of them should have gone to watch it.

NBA
Bill mentioned that there's quiet rumors circulating that the New Orleans Hornets could be gone as soon as next year, and that Sacramento, Memphis, Charlotte and New Jersey could be next. League commish David Stern and every commissioner is going to fight contraction as long as possible, but I do not see four or five relocation spots the NBA could move to. Vegas and Seattle seem like obvious cities to get new teams until you remember neither have arenas the NBA deems suitable, and in this economy there's no way either place would approve tax payer dollars to build a new arena or upgrade their existing ones. I believe St. Louis has a suitable arena and maybe even Vancouver could be brought back into the mix (in defense of my hometown the Grizzlies had horrible ownership and were horribly ran. Actually that hasn't changed at all since they moved to Memphis), but really, that's about it. So if things really are going to get worse before they get better we could see some teams move or fold.

NHL
I love the game of hockey, but hate all the changes made by Gary Bettman since he became commissioner in the early 1990's. The biggest blunder was expanding south of the Mason Dixon line. It's been painfully obvious from the start that people in the South just do not care about hockey, and yet Bettman has refused to admit this. Because the NHL is more dependent on ticket sales than any of the other "Big 4" the teams that haven't been supported well in Nashville, Atlanta, Florida, Carolina, and Phoenix (as well as "northern" locales like Long Island and Columbus) could be doomed. Phoenix will be lucky to survive the season and I can't imagine how they'll be able to afford a team next year. The other places mentioned have had the same or less support, and while Bettman has been able to keep them afloat until now, you have to think he's running out of resources. While the Canadian economy has done ok, the dollar has sunk again, meaning the six Canadian cashcow franchises aren't yielding as much. Bettman will soon be faced with the difficult decision of either relocating teams back to Canada (greater Toronto, Winnipeg, and Quebec City could all support teams right now!!!), or continue to give teams to American cities that don't want them like Houston, Kansas City or Vegas. Still, the writing is on the wall. Or perhaps, even contraction. Again, I'd hate to see good people lose their jobs, but the NHL doesn't have enough talent or interest for 30 teams. If the economy forces them to cut down to 24 or 26, it'd do wonders for the games and for the hardcore fans that have been there all along.

MLB
This will be the litmus test for pro leagues. Baseball is still the clear number two sport in America, and was doing VERY well before this year. But not only will the economy hurt the game, the A-Rod and steroid scandal could keep people away too. Maybe fans find the money and turn a blind eye and ear to steroids, but it'll be very interesting to see how the smaller market teams like in Florida, Arizona, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and others fare this season.

NFL
Ok so the these guys in LA could be a problem for Vikings fans. But Majestic Real Estate Co's bid to build and finance its own stadium in an LA suburb is still a long way from a reality, and I'm still not convinced LA really wants an NFL team back that badly. While Vikes owner Ziggy Wilf COULD have the leverage to tell Minnesotans to build him a new stadium or the team is gone to LA by 2010, it's still very possible that LA won't be an option. And if LA's not an option, I don't see another city on this continent the Vikings could move to (even San Antonio, where the Alamo Dome is becoming outdated). Ziggy could very well be forced to spend his own billions on a new stadium, and for Vikings fans, and fans of every other team for that matter, that would be a welcome victory. And perhaps, a sign that the times are indeed a changin' for sports fans in this country. Stay tuned.

The Monday Musings

2009-02-09T10:27:00.002-08:00

...Unless you were at the Black Spruce, or somehow avoided the tv and internet all weekend, you've no doubt heard that Alex Rodriguez tested positive for steroids back in 2003. No matter how he tries to spin this, we have irrefutable proof ARod used roids. First off, I was not shocked in the least when I read this. Not to say I had Rogriguez pegged as a user, it's just at this point no name could surprise me or shock me anymore. Ken Griffey Jr is my favorite player of all-time, and while he didn't LOOK like a guy who used or needed roids, I hope we've all learned that it's not about how a guy LOOKS. Juan Rincon used steriods. So did slap-hitting fourth outfielder Alex Sanchez. If it came out tomorrow that Junior used during his career, while I would be saddened, I wouldn't be surprised at all. Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Joe Mauer, David Eckstein. ANY of these guys that played in the 90's and early this decade very well could have used, and I hope the gravity of that is starting to hit home for fans.

The entire era is a fraud, and baseball has no one to blame but itself. The owners needed to get people in the seats after the Lockout of 1994 drove fans away, so they looked the other way when players got huge and homeruns starting rocketing out of parks at record rates. Remember that up until a few years ago, STEROIDS WERE NOT ILLEGAL!!! Yes, the players should share the blame, but technically all of the steroid use wasn't even cheating according to baseball rules. The only reason Rodriguez was caught is because the players were asked to take an anonymous test so that the owners could determine if they needed a steroid policy at all! This evidence was supposed to be destroyed, and only because someone out there decided not to, we get to find out about this.

I really hope baseball fans get fed up and stay away from the game. I LOVE the game of baseball itself, but this is a joke and fans deserve better. And I"m not just talking an apology. Currently MLB doesn't have a test for HGH, and they're not keeping samples so they can go back and check when they finally do develop a test. The only way this gets better, we get some answers, and real change happens is if players and owners have no other choice. They need to start with releasing the other 103 names of the players who also tested positive in 2003. The economy, and this kind of news, could be just the thing to finally make that happen.

...This adds more fuel to talk about the Hall-of-Fame and whether ARod, Clemens, McGwire, Bonds, and others deserve to be elected. Since all of the steroid talk started earlier this decade, ESPN.com baseball scribe Buster Olney has had the opinion that you can't pick and choose who you're putting in because while we think we can tell who DID use, there's no way to tell who didn't. There just isn't. So because guys who did use but don't "look" like steroid users (the Rincon and Sanchez examples again) could get elected, you either need just elect everyone who's deserving regardless of steroid use because, after all, it was legal. Or, no one from this era gets in. I don't think I'm alone in the belief that I think this entire generation should be banned.

...I felt the same level of shock when I heard the Twins don't want to pay Joe Crede $7 million a year despite not just needing a third baseman, but also needing a decent free agent signing to prove to fans that they didn't just pay for a new stadium for the Pohlad family so they could pocket the profits and sit on the money. So far...looks like the apple doesn't fall far from the tree in the Pohlad family.

...If the Vikings are serious about making a Super Bowl run next year, it looks like 2 of the 3 missing pieces can be had: we're SOL on a new head coach, but a better QB and a #1 receiver WILL be available. The price could be steep for both, but for a team with cap room that's built to win NOW, this is the offseason to act or they could risk missing their window of opportunity. Assuming Tom Brady is healthy to start the season, Matt Cassell can be had in trade. Reading the stories coming out of Philly the last couple of weeks, it looks like Donovan McNabb could be had too, and for less than it would cost to get Cassell. For a #1 wide receiver, Anquan Boldin wants out in Arizona, and he'd be the PERFECT compliment to Bernard Berrian- or maybe that's the other way around, Berrian would be the perfect compliment to Boldin. If it cost a first rounder to get Boldin, it would be worth it for me.

...one guy I want absolutely, positively no part of is Terrell Owens. Two of the most plugged in people in football, Adam Schefter of the NFL Network and Peter King of SI, believe Owens will definitely be cut before training camp. I don't care that he wouldn't cost the Vikes a draft pick, I don't care if you could somehow GUARANTEE me a Super Bowl if he signed in Minnesota, I do not want Owens in purple. He's been with three different teams, hasn't won a Super Bowl with any of them, and it has ended badly in all three places. Thanks but no thanks.

...For those ready to crown the LA Lakers NBA champs after impressive road wins over Boston and Cleveland last, I ask you this: how short is your memory?!?!? Without Andrew Bynum this is the same LAkers team that dominated the regular season last year, dominated the WEstern Conference in the playoffs...and then got dominated against a much tougher Boston teams in the Finals. Nothing has changed. With Bynum, the Lakers ARE the team to beat because he gives them the toughness and size inside, which is the only thing they're lacking. But without him (and let's be honest, with Bynum's injury history there's no guarantee he's healthy for a long playoff run), they're still not tough enough to beat Boston or Cleveland in the Finals. And that's IF they can get by the Spurs first, who once again are rounding into form at just the right time.

...As a matter of fact, the NBA playoffs are this simple: if Bynum's healthy, the Lakers beat the Cavs in 6. If he's not healthy, the Cavs beat the Spurs in 6.

The Secret to Success for Our "Surprise" NFL Playoff Teams

2009-02-06T11:22:00.001-08:00

As a psych major I can tell you right now that unless you plan on getting a doctorate, don't get a psych degree. I'm telling my future children that I will pay for their education if they do two things: go to a state school, and get either a business or IT degree. If they want one of those namby-pamby fine arts degrees, or if they to attend one of those high-felutin private schools, they're on their own. They're also not allowed to drive my car until they turn 18... or maybe ever, depending on the gender of my children. If my boy is a typical high school boy who, like me and most of my friends did when we were in high school, lives by the moto "drive fast, take chances," then he's probably never driving my car. Then again, if he drives with his hands at "10 and 2" and always obeys the speed limit, that would make me a lot more worried. If I have a girl, it is 100% certain she will do one of two things while driving: talk on her cell phone or text to her friends. Hell by the time my kids are old enough to drive (and this is assuming the Mayan calendar, and the Conservatives who believe Obama is the anti-Christ, are wrong and there will still be a world when my kids are old enough to drive) they will probably have invented a demonic device that will allow high school girls to both talk AND text at the same time. Good lord shoot me now!

Instead I will buy them their first car, which will be either a 1983 Chevy Impala, or a 1988 Volvo station wagon (I just realized both of these vehicles either have been owned or are currently owned by my friend Josh. Just another example of how wise a man he is). Both are very safe, very slow cars that I know will keep my kids safe (honestly either of those vehicles could get t-boned by a dump truck and knocked into an on-coming semi and that MIGHT only dent the front fender), and it will also keep my own car free from accidents. If they don't like it they can take the bus or walk (As you can tell, as someone who has zero children of my own, I'm obviously an expert on parenting. If you need any more tips or advice, all you have to do is ask. Really, it's no trouble at all. You're welcome).

What was I talking about again? Oh right, something about being a psych major, and while this probably wasn't the best college choice, one of the reasons I chose it is because I'm always fascinated with not just what happened, but the WHY and HOW it happened. Is that a psych thing, or just a people-in-general thing? Whatever. So when it comes to the NFL, I want to know if the sky is really falling, if indeed it's a free-for-all parity-fest where anybody can beat anybody and there's no rhyme or reason to anything that happens?

Well, looking back at our 12 playoff teams from 2008, I can tell you to rest assured that there IS order to the chaos and a method to the madness. My favorite thing now at the beginning of each season is try and predict who the playoff teams are going to be by using the "6 in 6 out" theory (every season there's six teams from the season before who make the playoffs again, and the other six spots are taken by teams that did not make the playoffs the season before), and that there can't be more than 2 repeat division winners. Looking back at my predictions for 2008, I just didn't see any way that we'd only have 2 repeat division winners and that only 3 teams total would make it back to the playoffs. New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego all won their divisions in 2007, and looked on paper to be the four best teams in not just the AFC, but probably the league. And the two wild card teams from 2007, Jacksonville and Tennessee, both looked pretty strong as well.

As it turns out, the AFC did get four teams back in instead of three, but it did only have two repeat division winners (Pittsburgh and by the miracles of miracles, San Diego), while the Teetahns got back in by winning the South and the Colts made it back as a wild card. Yet because the NFC only had ONE repeat playoff team (the Giants), we ended up with seven new playoff teams, which was more than I expected.

Was this predictable? Could we have seen any of this coming? Of the 12 playoff teams, a whopping EIGHT of them were not picked by Vegas (in their preseason over/unders) to win at least nine games (which has always been the expected minimum to make the playoffs): Tennessee (Vegas had them for only 8 wins- they got 13), Baltimore (Vegas 6- actual 12), Miami (Vegas 5.5- they won 11!!!), Carolina (Vegas 7.5- won 12), Atlanta (Vegas 4.5- won 11), Minnesota (Vegas 8.5- won 10), Philadelphia (Vegas 8.5- won 9 with an inexplicable tie with the Bungles), and of course Arizona (Vegas 7.5- won 9 in the worst division in the history of the universe). Do these eight teams "surprise" teams have anything in common?

Well honestly, no, all eight of them do not. But if you throw out Philly (a unique style because of Bryan Westbrook and how little and ineffectively they run the ball), and Arizona because, and stop me if I've mentioned this before, THEY WERE 6-0 AGAINST THEIR HORRIBLE GAWD AWFUL DIVISION AND JUST 3-7 AGAINST REAL COMPETITION!?!?!?!?!?!, then the remaining six "surprise" playoff teams certainly do have something in common: they all took as much pressure as possible off of their quarterback with a strong running game and defense.

All six were in the top 12 in rushing offense in the NFL.

All six were in the top 12 in scoring defense in the NFL.

All six were in the top NINE for least amount of pass attempts.

Five of the six were in the top nine for least interceptions thrown (Vikings fans, want to take a wild guess which one wasn't even close to being in that group?).

It's a pretty basic formula, but it also proved to be extremely effective for six different playoff teams. Run the ball well, stop people, and ask your quarterback to do as little as possible. It's a strategy made famous by the Baltimore Ravens in their Super Bowl year of 2003, and less famously by the Pittsburgh Steelers for Ben Roethlis-fatburger's five year career (since 2004, the Steelers have finished 32nd-or last, 32nd, 14th, 31st, and 17th in pass attempts. Roethlisberger is a good QB who is now a certain hall-of-famer because he won his second Super Bowl, but I still find it laughable that he's considered a top 5 QB in the league right now when he's asked to do far less with far more talent around him than anybody else in the conversation). Run the ball, stop the other team, and hope your QB doesn't screw up when he has to do something.

Finally, while this is a recipe for success in MAKING the playoffs, it is not a successful strategy for WINNING in the playoffs. While it makes it harder still to predict playoff outcomes, it is nice to know quarterbacking still counts a LOT when things matter the most. None of our six teams made the Super Bowl, and only one (the Ravens) made the conference finals because they finally played teams who were good enough to expose their quarterbacks.

So store this one away in your memory for when August rolls around and we're trying to figure out who the "6 in 6 out" teams are going to be: who looks like they can run the ball and can consistently stop the other team, and we won't worry about how good their quarterback is until January.

White Guys: I Love Them and I Hate Them

2009-02-03T07:49:00.003-08:00

So the Super Bowl is over, and so is football. For eight loooooonnnnnnggggg months. Saturdays and Sundays just are not the same without college and pro football to watch, and so now it's trying to figure out to fill that time. I know that I SHOULD like college basketball better than the NBA, yet I've tried to follow the Gophers and college hoops in general, and I've struggled.

For one thing, the Big 10 is BORING. It just is. There are no stars in the conference, and haven't been for a long time. There's some quality teams this year, and I'm glad the Gophs are one of them, but there's nobody who I'm excited to see. And nationally, unless you like to watch Tyler Hansbrough do his white Karl Malone imitation (wait, if Karl Malone is one of the whitest black men ever, then I suppose he's just doing his Karl Malone imitation) it's the same deal. Which player are you giving up time on your nice little Saturday (maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond. I don't know if we'll have time) to watch? I do enjoy Steph Curry bombing threes from everywhere, but he plays for Davidson so they're never on. I couldn't even tell you three other guys who I think will be All-Americans this year. There's really only two other things I can tell you for sure about college hoops: one is Duke has a lot of white guys and I continue to hate that team more than any other in any other sport.

My Duke hatred is nothing new, and to be honest, I can't explain why. I'm a white kid from Canada who loves Steve Nash, and STILL have a fasination with Gonzaga and all of their 3-point bombing whitey's that I can't quite explain. Saturday I passed up a top 10 Big East matchup (by the way, how crazy is the Big East? As Bill Walton would say, it's a HORRIBLE football conference, but man it's just insane how good it is for basketball. It would be like if USC, Texas, and Oklahoma joined the SEC for football) to watch Gonzaga vs. San Diego. And I loved every minute of it.

Growing up the first Final Four I remember was 1988 when Rumeal Robinson lead Michigan to a National Title over Seton Hall and Sean Higgins (you know what's crazy? I didn't look any of that up. Seriously), which was right when I first started loving Michigan (I was like 8 or 9)thanks to my cousin Kristi, who went to college right down the road in Spring Arbor and sent me all of this Michigan stuff. Anyway, even at that early age, I gravitated towards UNLV and then the Fab 5, and always, always, ALWAYS hated Duke. Always. Which again is weird because I'm really white and middle class and I like guys who hustle and bomb threes, yet I've always hated Duke. My most hated Dukies of all-time are Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Danny Ferry, Wojo, and Cherokee Parks. Notice something? They are all unathletic white guys who hustle! And I hate them!!

It's one of those personal contradictions I just can't explain, because honestly, if I could get everyone of Gonzaga's games, I'd watch them. Adam Morrison is one of my favorite college players of all time, and some of my favorite Zags are Dan Dickau, Blake Stepp, and Richie Frahm, who are, of course, all unathletic white guys who hustle and bomb threes. As I said, I do not understand how I differentiate between the two, but I know I love Gonzaga and I hate Duke.

Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah, how to fill the football void. Unless Gonzaga's going to be on TV a lot, I don't see myself watching much college hoops until March Madness. I've tried not to pay attention to the Wolves and have tried not to care and have tried to get attached or spend time thinking about them...and yet you're going to get a Wolves mid-season report and trade scenario posts very soon. WHY DO I DO THIS TO MYSELF EVERY TIME?!?!?!??

Thankfully February is a short month which includes my birthday, which means baseball will be starting before we'll know it, and I can start watching the Mariners from afar, and making the same complaints I make every year about the Twins while Twins fans who just paid for a brand new stadium fawn over them while they take their money and don't invest it in the team. What have the Twins needed for decades? A MIDDLE OF THE ORDER BAT!!!!!!!!!!! And Manny, Adam Dunn, Bob Abreu and others are just SITTING THERE!!!!!!!!! But are the Twins going to make an offer? Are they going to make a trade? Nope. Of course not. Because they're the Little Engine That Could that runs on Twins' fans positivity and hope and jelly beans and rainbows instead of spending money and running the team like you're the 14th largest media market in the freaking country!?!?!?!?!? Drives me f$&%ing CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!

On second thought maybe I can wait a little longer for baseball to start.

A Super Super Bowl

2009-02-02T06:37:00.003-08:00

I have to admit, I'm starting to come around on this whole parity thing. No really, I am. There's not even a snippy, sarcastic barb coming about. I am- well for the Super Bowl anyway. For all the things parity takes away from us, like true greatness, having the regular season actually mean something, and some order to things, it does give us much better Super Bowls than the previous Dyansty Era did. That was the thing I always conveniently forgot to mention as I was whining about 9-7 teams winning horrible divisions and ending up in the Super Bowl- the 49ers/Redskins/Cowboys era in the mid 80's to late 90's gave us some awfully one-sided Super Bowls. But this whole parity-era stuff has been great. Watching the game with the future Mrs. at Le Casa De Jermo with Jermo and Mrs. Jermo, I felt like Maximus had stormed in after the game was over and yelled "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!?" and then threw his sword at my head. And I had to admit, I WAS entertained.

In fact, I was so entertained by last night's game, I'm actually blogging about it. I know, the miracle of miracles. Where to even begin with a game like that?

...Well here's one place: Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes owes me, and anyone else who owned him in fantasy football this year, a formal, written, heart-felt apology. Why? Because THAT was the guy I thought I was drafting or keeping for fantasy football. The guy who made all the big, spectacular plays and looked like one of the best receivers in the league last night? Yeah that's the guy I thought I was getting, and I waited...and waited...and waited...and then got knocked out of the playoffs...and THEN in the Super Bowl he steps up. So thanks Santonio. Thanks for nothing. You can send your apology here to the blog or can mail it to me in the form of a Chipotle gift card- or an actual Chipotle burrito. It's the least you can do for losing me a fantasy football title this year when you quite clearly had it in you but decided not to show up when I needed you most.

...I don't know if Kurt Warner is a hall-of-famer or not, but he's been damn good in the Super Bowl. He's played in three Super Bowls, and he has the three highest yardage totals in history. Not too shabby. I can't believe he'd even consider retiring right now. Is he, or is he not, one of the five best QB's in the league right now (Brees, Manning-if you even have to ask which one your punishment is to rewatch each and every one of the Super Bowl commercials again. Honest to god, advertising people of America, how hard is it to entertain us? You know what, this deserves it's own section- Brady, and I suppose you'd have to put Roethlesberger now as the other four)? He most certainly is. The only reason I can think of for retiring is because his wife has gone through an incredible transformation from this to this. Can't say I'd blame him for wanting to spend more time with her.

...Was I the only person watching who didn't know Pittsburgh linebacker David Harrison was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Or that I'd really never heard of the guy before that game? I loved when Al Michaels made some mention of how "the nation already knows so much about him." Um, no Al, we don't. Or at least I didn't. His 100 yard interception for a TD was definitely amazing, and the refs absolutely got the call right in saying he made it into the end zone. And as for his unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, where some people were saying he should get kicked out of the game for it- HE GOT HIT IN THE NUTS!!! Seriously, whoever the Cardinals player was got up, and brought his forearm with him right up into Harrison's wedding tackle, his twig and berries, his...well you get the idea. I'd be throwing punches at a guy if he pulled that crap too.

...Cards safety Adrian Wilson running over holder/punter Mitch Berger on the field goal attempt in the first half was the coolest and yet dumbest play of the game. Coolest because who doesn't love to see a punter get roughed up like that? It's fantastic. I think all punters and kickers should have to wear one-bar face masks and the number double zero. Or maybe just regular zero. And for entertainment value they should be fair game on each and every play for the entire play. Roughing the kicker and punter penalities only encourage kickers to act MORE like the soccer players they truly are with all the flopping and acting to draw penalties. If we just made it legal to kick the crap out of them on each and every play, it would make them tougher, and also make me much more excited to see kickers and punters on the field. I'm not sayin' I'm just sayin'.

...Where was I? Oh yeah, well as fun as that play was to watch, that was a bonehead play of Wilson to keep going like that into Berger. You HAVE to know better. If Pittsburgh scores a TD there it's probably ballgame and Wilson wears the Goat Horns. Instead, he and his mates made a YUGE defensive stand to keep it close.

...I was definitely impressed with Arizona's defense last night. The first two Pittsburgh series they were doing their best matador impression as the Steelers marched down the field. But after that, the settled in and looked pretty good. Dockett, Dansby and Wilson were studly, and the Rogers-Cromartie kid made some good plays at corner, although some of them, especially the deep pass he broke up in the end zone, were to save his a** because he got burnt. But still, for a rookie who was basically put on an island with Holmes all night, he did ok.

...Look, as much as I try to act like one, I'm NOT a football genius. A shock to you, I know. So it's probably more complicated than I can understand, but there's two things I didn't understand about the Cardinals offensive gameplan last night: 1)WHY did it take them so damn long to get Larry Fitzgerald the ball, and why didn't they use the no-huddle earlier- like as in the first series of the game? Why? First Fitzgerald. I understand that if the Steelers are working so hard to take him out of the game and it's leaving Boldin and Breaston open, you go to the other two guys. That's fine and good if you're getting big gains from the other players, but the Cards weren't. I do understand Warner's biggest strength is hitting guys in stride so they can catch and run. This is what made his Rams teams so good was his ability to give Holt and Bruce and others the ball in the perfect spot so they could catch and run. But other than the Fitzgerald 64 yard TD (that was his best throw of the night), the short passes were not resulting in YAC. Instead, it looked like he was running the Brad Childress offense, as he didn't throw the ball more than 10 yards in the air for most of the game, and his receivers were getting tackled as soon as they caught it. Boldin averaged 10 yards a catch. Breaston 11.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Pittsburgh was dropping their safeties 20-25 yards to take away the deep ball, then sending different blitzes while dropping their linebackers 5-10 yards to take away the short stuff. So why the hell then aren't you throwing slants and post routes OVER the linebackers? Shouldn't there have been at least a 10 yard bubble behind them? Fitzgerald and Boldin are both freaking huge, and they excel at catching the ball in traffic, so WHY didn't that ever happen? Instead they seemed content to dink and dunk Chilly-style to guys not named Fitzgerald for far too long.

And secondly then, where was the no-huddle all game? Gee let's see here, you have one of the best- or maybe THE best- passing attack in the NFL, including a quarterback who is really good at running a no-huddle and hurry-up. Everyone in the building knows you can't run (the chances of the Cards taking a RB in the first round of April's draft should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 110% Either Knowshon Moreno or LeSean McCoy), and yet not only do you try to run far too much, but you don't use the no-huddle until you absolutely have to in the fourth quarter? And what happens, you march down the field. Had the Cards done that from the beginning, it could have been a very different outcome.

...Mike Tomlin has to be the coolest coach on the planet. He's also the second former Viking D-coordinator to leave and win a Super Bowl. Here's hoping the third time is NOT a charm, and the Wilfs are smart enough to fire Chilly after next year and promote current D-coordinator to head coach.

...There's probably more I'm forgetting, but let's finish with the Super Bowl commercials. Equal parts not entertaining, and bad. Is this what happens when all three of our big American breweries are owned by international companies? Do the new owners of Budweiser, Miller, and Coors need to be told that the SUper Bowl is kind of a big deal, and that we count on them for our commercial entertainment? Do they not know this in South Africa and Europe and wherever else? Are they spending most of their time on advertising to the Cricket world championships or soccer or rugby? Budweiser at least got the memo to pay for ads, but the quality was wanting. We get it, the Clydsedales and Dalmation are cute and adorable and you're totally and shamelessly playing to all the females watching. The "Drinkability" Bud Light ads are more annoying the the Subway "Five. Five Dollar. Five Dollar Footlooooonnnngs" (I hope you have that song in your head the rest of the day now) and the Geico Cavemen commercials combined. Please stop them. Miller decided all they needed was a one second High Life ad where their guy yells "HIGH LIFE!" While that was funny, and I suppose memorable, it would have been better to have more of those throughout the game or maybe, just maybe, have an entire 30 second commercial. And Coors didn't even bother showing up. But then again, who drinks Coors anyway? Exactly. So they weren't missed at all anyway.

...So that's it for another football season. It's now eight LOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGGGG months off. That should be enough time for me to get comfortable with the idea of me being comfortable with the idea of parity maybe, kinda, sorta being a good thing. We'll see how long it lasts.

NBA Trade Value Top 50- 1-6

2009-01-19T13:21:00.002-08:00

6. Kobe Bryant, LAL, G, 30 yrs
21,262,500 09/10- 23,034,375 (PO) 10/11- 24,806,250
More shocking to me than Melo being only 24? Kobe is playing in his- are you ready for this- 13th NBA SEASON!!! I like Mark Jackson as a game analyst, but its too bad we can't limit his opinions to analyzing games, because when he says something like "Kobe is as good as Michael Jordan", well, he loses credibility. I cannot fathom how this argument continues to fester, but there are few that seem to never go away no matter how little sense it makes. I wrote a lengthy post on this subject a few years back, so here's the cliff notes version: Kobe has won zero titles without Shaq, one of the four most dominant big men in history, whereas Jordan won six as the best player on his team. Not only that, MJ's stats are superior from an age when not only was the competition better, but so was the defense, as hand checking was not only allowed, but encouraged. In today's NBA, David Stern would try to send The Bad Boys to prison for the things they got away with in the 80's. Now, if a guy even breathes near a superstar, he's going to draw a foul. A new piece of information that I didn't share in the post from a few years back is this: let's compare MJ and Kobe in what I would consider a player's prime 7 seasons: from age 23-29. For Mike, this was his 3rd year in the league in 86/87 to 92/93, and for Kobe that was 01/02-07/08 (believe it or not he was 23 in his sixth year in the league). Here is what they AVERAGED over those seven years:

Jordan: 33.2 PPG, 5.9 AST, 6.4 REB, 2.8 STL, 1.04 BLK, .519/.271/.845 FG/3/FT
Bryant: 28.9 PPG, 5.4 AST, 5.9 REB, 1.53 STL, 0.54 BLK, .452/.336/.843 FG/3/FT

I mean people, and specifically Mark Jackson- THAT'S NOT EVEN COMPARABLE!!! It's not even a debate!!!!! Jordan, with less talent around him for the bulk of that stretch, had far superior numbers to Kobe. The only thing you could nitpick MJ for is his 3pt shooting, which is should be noted improved dramatically after his fourth season (his first 4 years he never shot better than 19%, but after that until he retired from the Bulls the second time- and as far as I'm concerned HE STAYED RETIRED- he never shot below 27%, and had five seasons where he shot over 31%. That's not great, but it's not bad either). It's just one of those things where I can't even believe the argument is still being made because it's basically (if I can make up a word) "unarguable". And yet I seem to get pulled into defending MJ, the greatest team sport athlete who's ever lived, everytime. Kobe might be a top 10 player of all-time someday, but there's a sizable gap between himself and The Greatest. You hear me Mark Jackson?

5. Chris Bosh, TOR, C, 24 yrs
14,410,581 09/10- 15,779,912 10/11- 17,149,243 (PO)
I wouldn't put him in the top five players in the league right now, but at 24 years of age he easily belongs this high on the list of values in the league. His career averages are 19/9/1.2 blks and while you might want a higher shooting percentage than 48 from a guy who makes his living in the paint, remember he's also an almost 80% career free throw shooter, which is simply unheard of from a non-Euro big man these days. His only knock is health, as he hasn't played more than 70 games in the past three years. WHEN he finds a new team in the summer of 2010 (any hoops fan outside of Toronto knows it's a foregone conclusion Bosh will relocate south of the border when his contract is up), for his longevity he needs to find a team with a decent center, because he'll have a much longer and more productive career as a 4 than a 5.

Because Bosh will bolt, as would and will any decent American free agent, shouldn't Stern bend the rules so the Craptors get first crack at all the Euro prospects? Hell, shouldn't they just have ALL European players? Americans have proven over and over that if they can get a better deal from an American team they're gone, and yet the Euros just can't enough of the place. As much as I hate Toronto and their media bias (honest to god, if you're ever subjected to having to watch one of Canada's three "national" sports networks, you wouldn't even know there's teams in any other provinces besides Ontario and Quebec. Hell, you wouldn't even know there ARE any other provinces outside of those two!), I will admit it's a very cosmopolitan city with a lot going for it, and I can see why a European player would love it. So since Toronto is one of the five least desirable free agent destinations for American-born players (The top 5 is Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Utah, Milwaukee and Toronto), why not let them have all the Euros they want? And while we're at it, can't Stern relax the bench rules a little to make these guys feel more at home? Why can't we let them roll their own cigarettes and smoke them during timeouts, or even while someone's shooting free throws? Can't you see Bargnani coming over to talk to coach Jay Triano, Triano hands him a smoke, and Bargnani lights up while they chat about the last play, or maybe their favorite new techno song? Vlade Divac would definitely need to be the assistant coach.

4. Dwyane Wade, MIA, G, 26 yrs
14,410,581 09/10- 15,779,912 10/11- 17,149,243 (PO)
Miami will be the road team NOBODY in the East will want to play in the first round. Not only is DWade good enough to win a round by himself right now (what do you even say about a guy who's AVERAGING 28 pts 7 asts 5 boards 2 stls and 1.5 blks?!? What's even scarier is it that he's not even the best player in the league right now, and it's not really close. Knights of columbus!) but when "playoff refing" starts and superstars who drive the lane get every call possible, Wade becomes pretty much unstoppable (not that we've seen this happen before with DWade or anything. Especially in the NBA Finals. That would never happen in a league where a ref was convicted of betting on games he referreed.). Right here, right now at 26 years old Wade is one of the three best players in the league and should stay there for at least three more. My concern with him is the Shaun Alexander/LDT Effect. In the summer of 2010 (or perhaps sooner if the Heat manage to get Boozer) Wade is going to sign a six year maximum deal that will run in his age 28 season until he's 34. For someone like Lebron or Kobe or Chris Paul I would have zero worries locking up a guy like that to max money in those years of his career. But I fear DWade is a much different story. He is fearless, relentless and incredibly effective driving to the basket, but because he's such a terror going to the rim (and the fact he's only 6'4) his body has absorbed an incredible amount of fouls and damage in his six NBA seasons. And thus far, Wade has shown zero ability or desire to develop and/or knock down a mid range-deep jump shooting game. Jordan extended his career a long time by developing the pull-up jumper, and we're seeing Kobe do the same. But if Wade insists on continuing to play his running back-style, there's just no way his body holds up into his 30's. Just like we saw with LDT this year, Wade could very well be dominant for another 3-4 years and then suddenly he's going to completely fall apart. I love watching Wade play and he's going to give the Heat some more great seasons, but I would NOT want to be the NBA team on the hook for max money to him from age 30-34.

3. Dwight Howard, ORL, C, 22 yrs
13,758,000 09/10- 15,133,800 10/11- 16,509,600 11/12 17,885,400 12/13- 19,261,200 (PO)
I almost hate writing about Howard because I feel obligated to mention that I said on this blog more than once that I would have taken Emeka Okafor over him in the draft. While the logic in doing so (experienced player who WAS durable in college who looked to be the next Zo Mourning instead of a skinny high school kid who may or may not have the desire to get better), I was and am really, really wrong. Howard IS the modern day Moses Malone, and as a 23 year old, is averaging 20 points, almost 14 boards and 3 blocks a night. He really has no downside: he's young, smart, from all reports has a great attitude and work ethic, the league's best body (meaning he'll age well and be able to take the pounding in the paint), and has gradually shown an improved low-post game. If he can continue to refine it and ever get close to 70% on his free throws, he'll be a perennial MVP candidate, and at worst he's the best center in the East, and probably the league, for the next decade.

2. Chris Paul, NO, PG, 23 yrs
4,574,189
Great oden's raven I love me some CP3! This year he's throwing up 20 points 11 dimes 5 boards and 3 steals a night. Want more? How about the fact he's .496/.365/.864 from FG/3/FT? Or has a redonkulous 30.56 PER right now? And all at 6'0 and the age of 23. On his ESPN.com bio, the master, the meistro, the professor of hoops Mr. John Hollinger says the following…

"In fact, if you compare how he played at ages 20 through 22 you'd be hard-pressed to find a single point guard in history who was demonstrably superior, which might make it easier to digest the possibility of further ascent. It might be odd to think of a 6-0, 175-pound guy as the best player in the league, especially when iconic talents like LeBron and Kobe are in their primes. But if Paul improves much at all from last season, we're going to have to get comfortable with that idea."

Honest to goodness if he keeps this up, we're also going to have to get comfortable with the idea of putting him in the conversation with Magic as the best point guard ever. And if you're in the same breath as Magic, that also means you're in the equation for one of the best 5 or 10 guys of all-time. Shhhh I know, I know maybe getting a little ahead of ourselves here, but so far so good.

Also, Apologies to the basketball fans in Milwaukee, Atlanta and Portland if they ever read this and now feel like slamming their heads against their desk or giving themselves a root canal with a rusty screwdriver because their teams passed on Paul in the 2005 draft. Of course, fans in Utah are still more in the dark of the truth than Andy Bernard was in The Office until last night's episode, as they can't quite seem to figure out what everyone else already knows: while DWill could be one of the best points in the league, he's nowhere not in Paul's class. Now we just have to figure out a way to make John Stockton give them a Michael Scott-type wake up. Maybe when Jazz fans pile into whatever they're calling the Delta Center for the next game, have Stockton there for some kind of pregame ceremony for "White guy's contribtion to basketball" or "Keeping short shorts alive for far too long" (you could have Jeff Hornacek involved too while we're at it), and then right at the end just casually mention "oh by the way, Chris Paul is and will always be much better than Deron Williams. It's not even close, really. They have statistics and everything to back it up. The rest of the country thinks it's a joke that you guys even keep the debate going. Just thought you should know. Oh, and while we're here, Utah having the name Jazz is a disgrace to the sport and to the good people of New Orleans. We need to give the name back. So uh, yeah, ok, thanks again! Have a great night and go Jazz!"

1. Lebron James, CLE, F, 23 yrs
08/09 Salary- 14,410,581 09/10- 15,779,912 10/11- 17,149,243 (PO)
We wrap up this long and meandering journey to #1 on the night Lebron faces Kobe, and once again, we have people like JA Adande on espn.com who can’t help comparing the two, even though this is his first sentence:

“This month, I've realized two things are overrated: New Year's resolutions and determining who's better between Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.”

Really? You think so? You know what else it is, JA? Pointless and ridiculous, because The Global Icon is better than Kobe here, now, and forever more. You’re not going to believe this, but Adande was a beat writer for the Lakers before joining The Mothership, so while he can’t be blamed for his bias he can be blamed with wasting my time with this. Hmmm would you rather have a 23 year old who’s 6’9 and 270 averaging 29/7/7 with almost 2 steals and a block per game or a 30 year old Kobe who’s numbers- ALL OF THEM- are less than Bronbron’s? And if that’s not enough, even though James’ stats are the lowest since he was a rookie six years ago, according to the asteemed Professor Hollinger, The Global Icon has never been better...

"In fact, one could argue nobody has ever been better. At 32.09 going into tonight's game, James is on pace to put up the best PER of all time. Yes, better than any of Michael Jordan's seasons (his 31.70 in 1987-88 is the current gold standard). We're halfway through the season now, so we can't just write it off to a hot start -- James has a serious shot at setting a new mark."

Seriously. Not only that, but now Lebron is finally starting to give a crap at both ends, which means before our very eyes he’s turning into one of the league’s best defenders. But hey, because he’s a Lakers homer, Adande feels compelled to make an argument based on things like what happened at the Olympics (which is so relevant to the NBA when the rules at international tournaments are different making the game very different) or recalling Kobe’s “clutch” shots (even though the idea of clutch is more myth than actual fact). Real, actual statistics? Nope, he casually leaves those out because that would make it rather impossible to make his case. Sheesh, Adande should be a baseball writer so he can help other old-time newspaper writers make made up stuff like “clutchness” and “feared hitter” and “big game pitcher” count for the hall-of-fame voting more than things like actual stats. That way, they can get their favorites like Jim Rice and Catfish Hunter and (probably soon) Andre Dawson and Jack Morris into the Hall instead of more worthy candidates like Dave Parker, Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines who didn’t play in major markets but were better players by every statistic we have.

Where was I again? Oh right, Lebron. Look, he’s the first athlete of the Internet Generation to grow up in front of us, and despite ridiculous and outlandish hype, he’s actually surpassed it, and now that he’s realized playing defense matters as much as playing offense, he could very well start jumping into the discussion for Greatest Player of All-time. If/when the Cavs win a title this year or next, maybe there’s a rationale debate worth having.

Top 50- 7-25
Top 50- 26-50

Checking in with some NFL thoughts

2009-01-13T11:22:00.004-08:00

Hi there. Greetings and salutations. Also hello. I am really hoping/trying/praying to finish the longest running segment nobody but me cares about that has become the NBA Top 50 Trade Value post. I need to finish this because I am one of those people full of good ideas who gets fired up to start them...and then never finishes them, either because I get fired up about something else or just lose interest halfway through. But I started that one and need to finish it, only so that I can move onto other topics I need to share with you. Today I have three thoughts regarding the NFL:

1) It sucks. There, I said it. Congratulations all of you people who wish for parity and fairness and equality for everyone in sports because your dream has come true! You've got yourself an NFC championship game between the 9-6-1 Eagles and the 9-7 Cardinals (who would have finished under .500 for the nine millionth year in a row if they weren't in the NFC Worst). In the AFC we have the Ravens vs the Steelers, two good teams who will be lucky to combine for 40 points on Sunday. No matter who wins it will result in a boring, poorly played Super Bowl.

This is what we've come to in a league that demands parity and has gotten it. There's no stars in the league anymore, certainly nobody I'd pay to watch: honestly, is there ONE player in the league you'd absolutely pay to see right now? I would say Adrian Peterson, but in doing so, it means I'd have to sit through three plus hours of horrendous decisions and indecision from Brad Childress and Tavaris Jackson, so no thanks. Quarterbacks are supposed to be the stars of the league, but go ahead and try to name the top 5 QB's in the league right now after Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady (who missed the entire season with a knee injury). Go ahead, take your time. You won't come up with any because there really aren't any other GOOD quarterbacks you can rely on anymore. Tony Romo is 0-for-the-playoffs, Eli's Super Bowl win last year looked like a fluke after this season, Donovan McNabb got benched this year he was so bad, Kurt Warner is, well, Kurt Warner etc etc etc. There's a LOT of issues I have with the league right now that I won't delve into further here, but I will say this: I like college football so much more than the NFL right now it's not even close.

2) From the "A person is smart but people are stupid" deparment:
Memo to Arizona Cardinals fans: for the love of pete, please shut up. We hadn't heard from you in decades simply because there was no "you", and I'd be fine if we never hear from your whiny selves again. The Cardinals have been the worst franchise in football not named the Detroit Lions, and the Phoenix metro is the third worst pro sports town in America (with Atlanta and Miami well out in front and Tampa Bay somewhere behind. Honestly, why do we even give pro sports franchises to the state of Florida?), so it's no surprise Arizona Cardinal fans haven't made much of a dent in the national sports landscape. This season their team won the crappiest division in the history of crappy divisions bascially by default while redefining the term "backing into the playoffs" to the point I'm renaming it "Cardinal'ing into the playoffs" by losing four of their last six games (getting outscored 198-138 in the process). Despite all of this, the bandwagon Cardinals fans are outraged about being "disrespected" because nobody picked them to win against either Atlanta or Carolina.

Seriously, the only way a non-biased knowledgable football person picks the Cardinals to beat the Panthers last week is if they throw every result and ever stat from the 2008 season out the window and says "the Panthers will inexplicably not run the ball even though that's what they do best, and make no even attempt to put more than one guy on Larry Fitzgerald even though HE'S THE ONLY GUY ON THE ENTIRE ARIZONA OFFENSE WHO COULD BEAT YOU!?!?!?" And for reasons known only to John Fox and the rest of the Panthers coaching staff, that's exactly what happened. Despite having an awesome rushing attack the Panthers instead ran just 15 times- and don't even start with the "well they were down 27-7 at the half. They HAD to throw." No, no they did not. They turned the ball over 3 times in the first half- two on interceptions- because they refused to run. And if they had double, triple, quadruple, or been the league's first defense to put all 11 guys on Fitzgerald, would have Arizona done in the second half? The Panthers would have had the entire second half to run the ball and score points. But no, they did neither and so the Cards won.

Yet still, Cards fans as pissy because the Eagles are favored on the road- as they should be. As Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said this week "in the Cards two playoff wins their opponent committed 9 turnovers under minimal pressure" which is a nice way of saying "your opponents handed you two wins. Congratulations." So yeah I'm going to go ahead and doubt that happens again.

So Cards fans, I know you're new at this whole "cheering for a winning team thing" or even "cheering faithfully for any team at all" but understand that when your team wins a crappy division and then plays like crap heading into the playoffs and then you're handed two playoff wins, nobody will believe in you. And if you happen to win against Philly on Sunday, then I'm not picking you to win the Super Bowl either- and neither will anybody else. Deal with it.

3) John Clayton hosts a weekly Saturday radio show on Sports Radio 950 KJR in Seattle. It's a station I grew up listening to in Vancouver, and I listen to their podcasts from time to time to check up on the Mariners and Huskies. In one of last week's interviews, Clayton made a matter-of-fact statement that, IF true, blows me away: he was talking NFL draft and said that while teams have about a 50/50 chance of drafting a successful QB in the draft, they have only a 25% chance of success drafting an underclassmen.

WHAAAAATTTTTT?!?!? You're telling me 75% of underclassmen QB's that come into the NFL are a bust?!?!?? That, my friends, is a staggering statistic, and one that would make me stay the hell away from junior and sophomore QB's in the draft. I haven't done the research on this one yet, but I plan to, although knowing me I'll probably do the research, start the post...and then never finish it. So you've got that to look forward to.

1ST ANNUAL METRIC MUSINGS NFL PICKS OVER/UNDER CHALLENGE

2009-01-07T08:36:00.007-08:00

Back in August, I threw out an NFL over/under confidence points pick 'em challenge. Ok that's a really long awkward name. Remind me to come up with something better for next year. Anyway, we had 7 participants, including yours truly, take part in the challenge in which the winner gets a beer (or beverage of their choice) on me the next time I see them.

Before we get to the results and our first annual winner, let's look at what Vegas' win total projections were back in for each team, and the total wins the team actually had in the 2008 season. (By the way, I tried to pick over/unders for all 32 teams and failed miserably, picking only 14 of the 32 correctly. But thankfully I included a lot of the correct picks in my 10 confidence picks),

NFC
North
Team, Vegas #- Actual # of 2008 wins
Chicago, 8 wins- 9
Detroit, 6- 0
Green Bay, 8.5- 5
Minnesota, 8.5- 10

South
Atlanta 4.5- 11
Carolina, 7.5- 12
New Orleans, 8.5- 8
Tampa Bay, 8- 9

East
Dallas, 10.5- 9
New York Football Giants, 9- 12
Philadelphia, 8.5- 9
Washington, 7.5- 8

West
Arizona, 7.5- 9
St Louis, 6.5- 2
San Francisco, 6.5- 7
Seattle, 8.5- 4

AFC
North
Baltimore, 6- 12
Cincinnati, 7.5- 4
Cleveland, 8- 4
Pittsburgh, 9- 12

South
Houston, 7.5- 8
Indianapolis, 11- 12
Jacksonville, 10- 5
Tennessee, 8- 13

East
Buffalo, 8- 7
Miami, 5.5- 11
New England, 12.5- 11
New York Jets, 8- 9

West
Denver, 7.5- 8
Kansas City, 6- 2
Oakland, 6.5- 5
San Diego- 10.5- 8

Ok now onto the challenge results. If you're unfamiliar with confidence picks, I asked for the 10 over/under picks you felt the best about. Your STRONGEST pick would get 10 points, 2nd strongest 9 etc etc with your weakest getting 1 point. At the end of the season, we total up the points from your correct picks, and whoever has the most gets a free beer from me. And the winner of a free beer is....

ME!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep I DOMINATED all the punks that dared pick against my football brilliance!!!! Ok, ok, actually I barely edged out Jason Hetland and Joel Braun. The Josephson brothers, however, finished with the same totals, and might want to consider joining forces next year to have any chance against me. And what happened to Kyle and Joe? I thought these were two of the smartest NFL people I knew, and yet COMBINED they were still 8 points short of me. Better luck next year gentlemen- you'll need it!!

Here's each of our 10 confidence picks:
Jeff- 33 TOTAL POINTS
10.Chicago, 8 wins- UNDER- WRONG
9. New Orleans, 8.5 –over- WRONG
8. San Diego, 10.5- under- CORRECT
7. Baltimore, 6- over- CORRECT
6. Pittsburgh, 9- over- CORRECT
5. Cincinnati, 7.5- under- CORRECT
4. Cleveland, 8- under- CORRECT
3. G-men, 9- under- WRONG
2. Houston, 7.5- over- CORRECT
1. Denver, 7.5- over- CORRECT

Hets- 30 POINTS
10. San Diego 8 – under- CORRECT
9. Chicago 8 – under- WRONG
8. Atlanta 4.5 – over- CORRECT
7. NYG 9 – under- WRONG
6. Indy 11 – under- WRONG
5. Denver 7.5 – over- CORRECT
4. Baltimore 6 – over- CORRECT
3. New Orleans 8.5 – over- WRONG
2. MN 8.5 – over- CORRECT
1. Washington 7.5 – over- CORRECT

Joel Braun- 27 Points
10. Chicago, 8 wins- under- WRONG
9. Baltimore, 6 wins- over- CORRECT
8. Buffalo, 8 wins- under- CORRECT
7. New Orleans, 8 wins- over- WRONG
6. San Diego, 10.5 wins- under- CORRECT
5. NYfootball Giants, 9 wins- under- WRONG
4. Oakland, 6.5 wins- over- WRONG
3. Houston, 7.5 wins- over- CORRECT
2. Detroit, 6 wins- over- WRONG
1. Cleveland, 8 wins- under- CORRECT

Ben Josephson- 21 POINTS
10. New Orleans- 8.5 over- WRONG
9. Detroit- 6 over- WRONG
8. Baltimore- 6 over- CORRECT
7. Houston Nut 7.5 over-- CORRECT
6. Da Bears 8 uner- WRONG
5. Skins 7.5 over- CORRECT
4. Oakland Convicts 6.5 over- WRONG
3. God's Team 8.5 over- WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! GOD’S TEAM MY A**!!!!
2. Sea Town 8.5 over- WRONG
1. Parcells 5.5 over- CORRECT

Brady Josephson- 21 POINTS
10. Detroit, 6 wins – over- WRONG
9. Chicago, 8 wins – under- WRONG
8. St. Louis, 6.5 wins – over- WRONG
7. San Diego, 10.5 wins – under- CORRECT
6. Washington, 7.5 wins – over- CORRECT
5. Atlanta, 4.5 wins – over- CORRECT
4. Philadelphia, 8.5 wins – under- WRONG
3. Baltimore, 6 wins – over- CORRECT
2. Tennessee, 8 wins – under- WRONG
1. Dallas, 10.5 wins – over- WRONG

Kyle- 13 POINTS
10. Chicago 8 Under- WRONG
9. New Orleans 8.5 Over- WRONG
8. Cleveland 8 Under- CORRECT
7. Dallas 10.5 Over- WRONG
6. Green Bay 8.5 Over- WRONG
5. Seattle 8.5 Over- WRONG
4. New York G 9 Under- WRONG
3. Carolina 7.5 Over- CORRECT
2. Buffalo 8 Under- CORRECT
1. Denver 7.5 Under- WRONG

Joe- 12 POINTS
10) Miami Under- WRONG
9) Dallas Over- WRONG
8) Houston Under- WRONG
7) Indianapolis Over- CORRECT
6) Cincinnati Over- WRONG
5) Atlanta Under- WRONG
4) New Orleans Over- WRONG
3) Minnesota Over- CORRECT
2) Detroit Under- CORRECT
1) Chicago Under- WRONG

NBA Top 50 Trade Value: 7-25

2009-01-04T17:37:00.002-08:00

25. Greg Oden, POR, C, 20 yrs
5,011,680 09/10- 5,361,240 10/11- 6,796,524 (TO) 11/12- 8,788,681 (QO)
Could Oden be in a better situation? It's not possible. Portland is completely off the national media radar in a town that is more infatuated with the Blazers than men are with Madmen's . The Blazers are in such good shape as an organization they get a free pass this year from everybody as long as they make the playoffs. For Oden, there's as little pressure as humanly possible for him to do or be anything. Some have either written him off or lost interest, and that couldn't be better. The Best Coach in Basketball (sorry there's my Sonics bias coming through) Nate McMillan can bring Oden along slowly (he played over 40 minutes for the first time in a game just last week) because he has a decent backup center in Joel the Vanilla Gorilla Prysbilla, and so far Oden's doing just fine thank you. He's not the next David Robinson or Hakeem or maybe even Patrick Ewing, but at worst (and this is not meant as a backhanded compliment) isn't he a more offensively skilled Dikembe Mutumbo? A force on the defensive end and on the glass that can give you 15-18 a night scoring? IF he can avoid injuries (and right now that's a huge if), his baseline skill set is a top 3 or 4 center in the league. The more I write the more I think I've got him rated too low- or I'm still just way too high on him.

24. Danny Granger, IND, F, 25 yrs
$2,329,804 09/10- $9,930,500 10/11- $10,973,202 11/12- $12,015,904 12/13- $13,058,606 13/14- $14,021,788
Living here in Minnesota I (thankfully) have no emotional investment in the Timberwolves, and if I get angry just thinking about how Wolves coach/VP Kevin McHale took Rashad McCants over Granger, I can't even imagine how the 12 Wolves that are left handle it. Saying Granger is infinitely better than McCants is like saying Paris Hilton has no discernable talent- it's the understatement of understatements. What's more of an understatement than an understatement? A way-understatement? Downunderstatement? Uberunderstatement? After a breakout 2007-08, Granger so far is averaging 24.5 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, over an steal and block per game with a PER of 20. McCants is averaging 9 pts shooting 34% with a PER of 9 on a team that is giving him every opportunity to prove himself. Great pick there by McHale. I can't wait to see how he screws up their FOUR 1st round picks this summer (make no mistake, after this horrible season concludes for Minnesota McHale WILL keep a job with the team and WILL still have influence with their decisions).

23. Al Jefferson, MIN, F, 23 yrs
11,000,000 09/10- 12,000,000 10/11- 13,000,000 11/12- 14,000,000 12/13- 15,000,000
Yes he’s 23 and already averaging 20 and 10. But how can he be that good offensively and that bad defensively? If you’re agile, strong and quick on one end, shouldn’t you still be the same way on the other? Also, Big Al, when more than one defender is trying to take the ball away from you, it means someone else is open so you should probably pass it. Well unless that guy is Rashad McCants…or Jason Collins…or Bassy Telfair…or Kevin Ollie…or- you know what? Nevermind, just keep shooting over double and triple teams. Your odds of scoring are just as good as one of your teammates scoring with no one on them.

22. Andrew Bynum, LAL, C, 21 yrs
2,769,300 09/10- 12,526,998 10/11- 13,842,332 11/12- 15,157,667 12/13- 16,473,002 (TO)
On the plus side, Bynum has shown no ill effects from microfracture knee surgery, averaging 12/8/2 in just 28 minutes per game for a solid PER of 18.21. The negatives? I wonder if he hasn’t shown much of a low post game because he hasn’t had to, or because he’s just not going to be that kind of player. And I also wonder- just what exactly IS his ceiling? Can he be a franchise center or not? Do you also realize he’s just a year younger than Dwight Howard? I know Bynum lost a season because of his knee, but Howard is currently light years better, and was much further along at this stage of his career. Bynum is also about to get really, really expensive starting next season. Still has a lot of potential, but also a lot of questions, which is why I’m sticking him here.

21. Devin Harris, NYJ, PG, 25 yrs
7,800,000
I've read enough of the likes of USSMariner and John Hollinger to know that a 8 weeks worth of games is an extremely small sample size to be making much of a judgment about a player's performance, but I still can't help but be blown away by the first two months that Devin Harris has had. He's so far averaged 25 points (fourth in the league), 6.4 assists (with a 3-1 assist/turnover ratio), and 1.3 steals with 48% FG and 81 FT% with a ridiculous PER of 28.31 (last season he had a career high PER of 17.63). He just went off for 47 on Phoenix, the sixth time this season he's scored at least 30 points (number of 30 point games in four previous seasons- zero). Call me crazy, but I don’t think this is a mirage, and Harris has the potential to be one of the best guards in the league.

20. Brandon Roy, POR, G, 24 yrs
3,084,240 09/10- 3,910,816 10/11- 5,217,028 (QO)
Hey, speaking of players Kevin McHale passed on in the draft, it's Brandon Roy everybody! All he did in his first two years was average 19 points, 5 assists, 4.5 boards and a PER in the high teens. This year? Ree-freaking-diculous so far: the assists and rebounds have remained, but his shooting % is up in all three categories (FG, 3Pt and FT) as is his scoring at 23.4 a night (he went for 52 last night) which all equates to a PER of 25. Wow. Just wow. I'm going to stop now in case there are any Wolves fans listening, because the team can't afford to lose any more of those.

19. Emanuel Ginobili, SA, G, 31 yrs
9,900,000 09/10- 10,725,000
GI-NO-BI-LI!!!!!!!!!!!!! I still love it when Sir Charles yells that on TNT. I really do. I really, really dislike Manu for many, many reasons but he continues to be one of the most valuable players in the league. If he’d been healthier the last year, he’d be higher on the list. A steal of a deal at just $20 million for the next two years. Do they have rules in Argentina about being underpaid?

18. Carlos Boozer, UTA, F, 27 yrs
11,594,817 09/10- 12,657,233 (PO)
One of the league’s best power forwards, and he’ll look even better when he’s playing alongside Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley in Miami next year. But don’t you figure the karma gods have to be coming for him, and soon? I mean it’s been three years since he stabbed a blind man in the back in Cleveland and bolted for Utah. Sure, having to live in Utah should probably be punishment enough, but he’s still going to be a bazillionaire and get to live in South Beach. Reparations have to be coming, right? Did I mention he went to Duke? Reparations are DEFINITELY coming then. Enjoy the good life while it lasts, Carlos.

17. (tie) Dirk Nowitzki, DAL, F, 30 yrs
18,077,904 09/10- 19,795,714 10/11- 21,513,524 (PO)
Paul Pierce, BOS, F, 31 yrs old
18,077,903 09/10- 19,795,712 10/11- 21,513,521 (PO)
Two of the best forwards in the league making identical salaries. Pierce may be a year older, but he didn’t just earn a championship ring, he was the go-to guy on that team. Nowitzki’s advantage is that while he’s a Euro and choked in the Finals, he didn’t fake an injury in the Finals where he had to get carried off the court looking like he might need his legs amputated only to return a quarter later looking like absolutely nothing happened. I know Pierce recovered from being stabbed, but you can’t overlook the fake knee injury either.

15. Carmelo Anthony, DEN, F, 24 yrs
14,410,581 09/10- 15,779,912 10/11- 17,149,243 11/12- 18,518,575 (PO)
Can you believe Melo’s only 24? Doesn’t it seem like he’s been in the league for at least 10 years? Can you also believe he’s now clearly the FOURTH best player from the 2003 draft (the top three are still to come)? An awesome offensive talent, Anthony has never emerged as the leader he was at Syracuse, and his reputation has taken a hit. This season his numbers are down, but he’s trying to play through two painful elbows that have bone spurs in them, so you can’t really blame them. If he can somehow get healthy for the playoffs Anthony may have his best opportunity to make a long playoff run with Billups running the point, but at the moment that seems like a big if ((espn.com says bone spurs can only be fixed through surgery).

14. Joe Johnson, ATL, PG, 27 yrs
14,232,566 09/10-14,976,754
Johnson is one of the least talked about free agents for the 2010 bonanza, yet he could have one of the biggest impacts for his new team. In four seasons since being traded to the Hawks in 2005, the 6’7 combo guard has averaged 40 minutes a game, 22.4 pts, 5.7 asts (with just 2.9 TO’s for an almost 3/1 assist-to-turnover ratio), and 4.4 reb, on 45% shooting. With the Hawks finally playing well this season, Johnson might finally get some recognition as one of the league’s best players. Of course the recognition he’d really appreciate would be a huge payday in the summer of 2010, and he should get it from somebody who misses out on Lebron and DWade.

13. Kevin Durant, OKC, F, 20 yrs
$4,484,040 09/10-$4,796,880 10/11-$6,053,662 11/12- $7,900,029
When I started putting this list together in late November, I had Durant ranked somewhere in the 20's. In his first year last season, and then the first month of this year, for reasons unbeknownst to modern science the dolts coaching him insisted on playing him out of position as a two guard. This would be like buying a Ferrari and then only using it to drive to the grocery store on back roads doing 25 mph. Coming out of college Durant had a rare blend as an unstoppable scorer, capable rebounder (averaged over 10 a game at Texas) and showed a work ethic you just don't see in teenagers. In other words, he would be a monster at forward and a total waste of his abilities at the two. Sure enough, as a guard he had horrible shot selection, jacked up threes, and picked up more bad habits than rebounds. Last season he averaged just 20 pts and 4 rebounds with a disappointing PER of just 15, and for the first month of this year his numbers were very similar. Then his coach PJ Carleismo got fired, and while it was a little ridiculous (Jesus Christ crossed with Red Auerbauch couldn't coach this team to the playoffs let alone 30 wins this year), it did finally clue in those in charge to move Durant to small forward. In the month of December, the results have been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 25 pts, 7.4 boards, over 1.5 stls and blks per game, and a PER near 19. THIS is the Kevin Durant we expected when he was drafted last year, and this is the kid with the limitless ceiling that could challenge Lebron and Chris Paul as the game's best in a few more years. If his December performance is sustainable, the 20 year old could be one of the most valuable players in the league by season's end.

12. Yao Ming, HOU, C, 28 yrs
15,070,550 09/10- 16,378,325 10/11- 17,686,100
The only reason Yao is ranked this high is because he’s from China. And because he’s from China he sells about a gazillion dollars worth of merchandise for the Rockets, so to trade him would mean no matter how much better they get on the court, they’d be missing out on a gazillion dollars of merchandise. If you haven’t noticed, owners like making a lot of money. But if Yao were white or black or Latino or from any other country besides the largest emerging Super Power nation with over a billion people, he would be ranked somewhere in the 20’s on this list. No seriously, he would. Yes, he hasn’t had a PER below 20 in his career, and you’re getting 20 points, 10 boards, and 2 blocks per game. But you know what else you’re getting? Him sitting in street cloths for at least 30 games a year because hasn’t played more than 57 games in a season since 2004-05. I would call that injury prone. Oh, and because he’s Chinese (and it’s “alleged” that China maybe can’t be trusted when they say how old their athletes are), he could be a little bit older than the 28 he says he is. Or a lot.

11. Amare Stoudamire, PHX, C, 26 yrs
15,070,550 09/10- 16,378,325 10/11- 17,686,100 (PO)
Of all the ways Suns owner Robert Sarver has killed Suns fans over the years, we’re starting to see that the worst thing he may have done was letting coach Mike D’Antoni walk. Only Shaq has been better this season, and that could be due as much to Shaq’s effort and being in shape as it is to new coach Terry Porter. We do know that Porter sure hasn’t helped anyone else, especially Amare. As far as we know, Stoudamire is as healthy as ever, yet his numbers are WAY down: last year he averaged 25 & 9 with 2 blocks while shooting 59% in just 33 minutes a night. This year he’s actually playing MORE (37 mins a game), but has managed only 21/8/1 on 55% shooting. He’s ranked this high because before this season, he looked like one of the best centers in the league. But if this is more indicative of his true level of production, then he’ll be dropping a long ways in next year’s rankings.

9. (tie) Deron Williams, UTA, PG, 24 yrs
$5,069,448 09/10- $13,785,000 10/11-$15,202,590 11/12- $16,647,180 12/13-$18,091,770 (PO)
Tony Parker, SA, G, 26 yrs
11,550,000 09/10- 12,600,000 10/11- 13,500,000
Both of these guys are PERFECT for their current systems and coaches. Parker's a scoring point guard whose slashing/penetrating style works beautifully with Duncan and Ginobili. He's taken his game to another level this season, bumping his scoring average from 16 to 22 a night and has upped his assists too from 5.5 to 6.7. He HAS to be in the top 5 MVP conversation so far with a ridiculous 24.33 PER (a full 3 points higher than his previous best in any other season). Williams is a pure pass-first point (2nd in the league in assists with 9.7 per game) who can be an efficient scorer when the opportunity arises (went for 29 on 61% shooting in a win over Detroit on 12/19 and scored 27 in just 33 minutes on an identical 11-18 and 61% shooting from the field in a blowout win of Philly on 12/29). They're both of the best point guards alive and at 26 and 23 years old respectively, will be two of the best at the position for years to come.

8. Derrick Rose, CHI, PG, 20 yrs
4,822,800 09/10- 5,184,480 10/11- 5,546,160 (TO) 11/12- 6,993,707 (TO) 12/13- 9,091,819 (QO)
While Williams and Parker are two of the top three or four point guards in the NBA, that's as good as they can be. I'd take Rose over both because he has the potential to be not just the best PG in the league, but to challenge Lebron, Kobe, CP3 and Dwight Howard as the best PLAYER in the league. And it could happen sooner than anyone thought. His first two months in the L have been nothing short of amazing, averaging 17 points and 6.3 assists (and just 2.74 turnovers) at the ripe old age of 20!! Even more surprising is that Rose, who was supposed to have a suspect jumper, has so far shot 34% from 3 (14-41), 47.7% from the field and just shy of 80% from the charity stripe. That might not sound that amazing until you realize that by comparison Parker didn't average 17 points a game until his 5th season and didn't average more than 6.1 assists until this year, his 8th in the NBA. Williams averaged just 10.8 pts and 4.5 asts his rookie year, and while his assists went way up, he still hasn't shown the scoring ability Rose already has. What about Chris Paul, you say? As a rookie in 05/06 CP3 did average more assists (7.8) and steals (2.2 to Rose's 1.0) with slightly less turnovers (2.3), but he didn't score as much as Rose has (16.3 pts) and shot much worse (43% FG and 28% 3PT). Believe it or not Magic Johnson is the only point guard to have better rookie numbers across the board than Rose has posted so far (Isiah Thomas scored about the same as Rose and had more assists and steals but WAY more turnovers and wasn't close in shooting percentages). Have I mentioned he's only 20?!? Have I? Parker and Williams might be perfect for the teams, but they'd give up either one for Rose, whereas the Bulls would say "what else are you throwing into the deal?" Well if their GM wasn't John Paxson, he'd say that.

7. Tim Duncan, SA, C, 32 yrs
20,598,703 09/10- 22,183,218 10/11- 18,700,000 11/12- 21,300,000
The Big Fundamental could also be called the Big Constant or Mr. Reliable. Not the most exciting nicknames but Duncan's never been about excitement, just productivity. At 32, he's shown few signs of slowing down, averaging 20 pts, 10 boards, and 2 blocks a game- all just slightly under his career averages. And since TD already relies on the fundamentals, it means he should be a 20/10/2 player well into his late 30's because he doesn't have to worry about losing quickness or jumping ability.

NBA Top 50: 1-6
NBA Top 50: 26-50

Top 50 NBA Trade Value

2008-12-15T00:00:00.001-08:00

My favorite column written by the Sports Guy Bill Simmons is his annual NBA Trade Value column. He used to write it every summer, but last year he didn’t get it posted until Christmas, and if you ask me, the best thing Santa could leave under the tree for more this year would be Bill’s Top 50 Players for 2008. That or an Xterra. Or a lifetime supply of Chipotle chicken burritos (with rice, black beans, corn salsa, cheese, sour cream, and a healthy dose of chipotle flavored Tabasco sauce).

Anyway, in anticipation of this glorious annual event, I’ve decided to post my own top 50. Here’s Bill’s rules when making the list:
1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next three, would you rather pay David West $37.9 million or Andrei Kirilenko $63.3 million?

2. Age matters. Would you rather have Rasheed Wallace for the next four seasons or Al Horford for the next 12?

3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal or not?

4. Concentrate on degrees. For instance, neither San Antonio nor Orlando would make a Howard-Duncan trade. But at the very least, the Spurs would say, "Wow, Dwight Howard's available?" while the Magic would say, "There's no frickin' way we're trading Dwight Howard." That counts in the big scheme of things.

5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 50 to 1). So if Carmelo comes in at No. 14, players 1 through 13 are all players about whom the Nuggets would probably say, "We hate giving up 'Melo, but we definitely have to consider this deal." And they wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 15 and 50.

…and here’s his Top 50 from 2007:
1. LeBron James
2. Dwight Howard
3. Tim Duncan
4. Chris Paul
5. Deron Williams
6. Steve Nash
7. Kevin Garnett
8. Dwyane Wade
9. Yao Ming
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Carlos Boozer
12. Dirk Nowitzki
13. Kevin Durant
14. Carmelo Anthony
15. Baron Davis
16. Manu Ginobili
17. Tony Parker
18. Chris Bosh
19. Paul Pierce
20. Amare Stoudemire
21. Al Jefferson
22. Andrew Bynum
23. Josh Smith
24. Greg Oden
25. Al Horford
26. Chauncey Billups
27. Gilbert Arenas
28. Tracy McGrady
29. David West
30. Caron Butler
31. Josh Howard
32. Luol Deng
33. Shawn Marion
34. Joe Johnson
35. Chris Kaman
36. Allen Iverson
37. Rasheed Wallace
38. Marcus Camby
39. Pau Gasol
40. Tyson Chandler
41. Elton Brand
42. Michael Redd
43. Andris Biedrins
44. Tayshaun Prince
45. Brandon Roy
46. David Lee
47. Andrea Bargnani
48. Rudy Gay
49. Monta Ellis
50. Leandro Barbosa

When compiling my list, I definitely keep the rules in mind, but I put more emphasis on salary and age than anything else. I also favor point guards and centers because they’re the two most important positions on the floor, and there’s also a scarcity of quality at each.

Finally, here’s the players from Simmons 2007 list that did not make mine for 2008:
(TO) Team Option (PO) Player Option (QO) Qualifying Offer

Luol Deng (32 in 2007 rankings), CHI, F, 23 yrs
6 yrs-$71 million
Last season Deng was a budding 22 year old with a world of potential. This year he’s signed him to a gigantic six year contract that makes the new Wall Street Bailout look like a bargain. Bang up job by John Paxson.

Shawn Marion (33), MIA, F, 30 yrs
17,180,000 (salary for 2008/09 season)
From the “Be careful what you wish for department” Marion was unhappy in Phoenix playing with the best passing point guard alive in an up-tempo offense that was perfectly tailored to his skills. His wish was granted last year with a trade to the Miami Heat, and Marion has been less than stellar in his new home. His all-world defense has slipped a bit, and he’s shown he’s not very good at creating his own shot- all for the bargain price of more than $17 million! Not a hard guy to leave off the list.

Allen Iverson (36), DET, G, 33 yrs
21,000,000
This season is proof that Iverson has officially on the downside of his career, but what a run it was. While he should be a first ballot Hall of Famer, The Answer will still be one of the most underappreciated players of this era. In his 13 years in the league he’s averaged 70 games, 27.5 points, 6.3 assists, and 2.2 steals as a slight six footer with lightning quickness and the toughness of a heavyweight fighter. It’s a shame he’ll probably be better known for his whole “practice? We talking bout practice?” speech when few if any played harder during games.

Rasheed Wallace (37), DET, F, 34 yrs
13,680,000
Still a valuable player on the right team, just not one of the 50 most valuable players in the league.

Michael Redd (42), MIL, G, 27 yrs
$15,780,000 09/10- $17,040,000 10/11- $18,300,000
So much money for so little production (currently a PER of just 15.71 this season). Is it more insulting to Wally or Redd to call him the black Wally Szczerbiak?

Tayshaun Prince (44), DET, F, 28 yrs
9,500,000 09/10- 10,324,380 10/11- 11,148,760
Still a solid role player for the Pistons, but doesn’t look as valuable as he once did.

David Lee (46), 25 yrs
$1,788,033
Guaranteed to go from underpaid and underrated this year to really, really overpaid and overrated next year. Free agency will do that to people.

Andrea Bargnani (47), TOR, F, 24 yrs
$5,176,440 09/10- $6,527,490 10/11- $8,485,738 (QO)
So far hasn’t come close to living up to the expectations of being a #1 overall pick. Of course the same could be said of Andrew Bogut and yet the Bucks gave him a huge contract extension. I have a feeling Craptors GM Bryan Colangelo will be smarter than that.

Leandrinho Barbosa (50), PHX, G, 25 yrs
6,100,000 09/10- 6,600,000 10/11- 7,100,000 11/12- 7,600,000 (PO)
He’s 26 and in his sixth season in the league and we’re STILL waiting for him to play like an all-star. If it hasn’t happened yet, I don’t think it ever will. Still a nice player for the price, but not a Top 50 value.

With that, here are my Top 50 NBA Players for the 2008/09 season:

50. Paul Millsap, UTA, F, 23 yrs
797,581,000
Coming off the bench in Utah is kind of like putting the NHL on Versus: it’s a good product that nobody sees. Milsap has been one of the league’s best sixth men playing behind Carlos Boozer, and when Boozer flees the SLC this summer (or at the trade deadline), Milsap will step right in and be a double-double machine (as of this writing he’s posted 11 straight). Even with a new contract, he won’t be overpaid because his rookie salary is so low.

49. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR, F, 23 yrs
4,631,400 09/10- 5,844,826 10/11- 7,627,498 (QO)
I could put two or three other Blazers in this same spot. They’re loaded. It’s quite ridiculous how loaded they are. Why teams aren’t signing away people from Portland’s front office to run their teams is beyond me. I suppose it’s easier to hire former players with no experience or skill to run a team because it’s cheaper and cooler to tell your friends at the men’s club you’re the boss of a former NBA star. It’s sure worked for Glen Taylor. Oh yeah, and as for Aldridge, he’s not higher on this list because I’m just not sure how much better he’s going to be.

48. Gilbert Arenas, WAS, G, 26 yrs
6 yrs- $111 million
Honestly, I have no idea what to do with Agent Zero, so I ended up sticking him here. He WAS an incredible scorer and posted PERs in the low-mid 20’s for three straight seasons. His last two full seasons he averaged at least 28 points, 6 assists, 2 steals, and over 40 minutes a night. Problem is, that was almost two full years ago. Hibachi played in just 13 games last year because of a knee injury, got arthroscopic surgery this summer to repair it and remove “floating debris”, and was supposed to be ready to go by January- except he’s nowhere close to running or playing on it yet so now the All-star break or even later seems more realistic. IF he gets back to 100% he’s a top 15 player, but if not, we could unfortunately be looking at another Penny Hardaway-type career that gets derailed by a knee injury far too soon. Either way, the Wiz are on the hook for the full $111 million for the next six years, which I’m guessing is a contract few teams would want to take from Washington right now.

47. Thaddeus Young, PHI, F, 20 yrs
1,968,120 09/10- 2,105,400 10/11- 2,901,241 (TO) 11/12- 3,992,108 (QO)
Last season Young posted the best PER of any rookie (yep even better than Kevin Durant) who played at least 1000 minutes. His playing time is up but his numbers are down so far in his second season, although I’d attribute that to how screwed up the Sixers have been trying to acclimate Elton Brand into the lineup. Just ask Mo Cheeks, who got pink-slipped on Friday- how that’s worked out so far. Still a world of talent for Young at a crazy cheap price for three more years.

46. Monta Ellis, GS, G, 21 yrs
11,000,000 09/10-11,000,000 10/11-11,000,000 11/12-11,000,000 12/13-11,000,000 13/14-11,000,000 (PO)
Ok so the motor scooter accident was dumb. And lying about it was even dumber (is “dumber” a word? Grammar’s never been my strong suit, but if it’s in the title of a movie, it’s a real word to me. By the way, I had every line of that movie memorized. If there was a list of the top 10 most quotable movies of all-time, it would definitely be on it, probably in the top 5. Dumb & Dumber also came out in 1994. Holy crap I’m getting old). But he’s 21 years old, and I’m pretty sure we all did some dumb things when we were 21. He’s a talented scorer locked into a very nice contract at least through his age 25 season, so if Ellis matures on and off the court, this will look like a steal by the time his contract is up.

45. Josh Howard, DAL, F, 28 yrs
9,945,000 09/10- 10,890,000 10/11- 11,835,000 (TO)
Speaking of dumb, Howard might want to lay off the wacky tobaccy if he wants another big payday in three years, especially since he’ll be 31 when that happens. Before being sidelined with an injured ankle, he was off to a great start averaging 20 pts and 8.3 boards.

43. (tie) Tyson Chandler, NO, C, 26 yrs
10,950,000 09/10- 11,850,000 10/11- 12,750,000 (PO)
Chris Kaman (35), LAC, C, 26 yrs
9,500,000 09/10- 10,400,000 10/11- 11,300,000 11/12- 12,200,000
Until the final draft of this post, I had Chandler in the 30’s and Kaman off the list entirely because I was going more off of reputation and last year’s performance than anything else. But when you get right down to it, it’s hard to find much difference between the two- well other than Kaman’s skullet. That is definitely a difference. Still, both were great last year but have been slow out of the gate in 2008. Most of Kaman’s numbers are down (from a 15-12-3 blks last year to 14-9-2 this year), but his shooting percentage is way up and has a PER above 17 for the second straight year, and is currently out with a foot injury. Chandler has no injury excuses as his numbers have dropped (an 11-11-2 last year to just 8-8-1 this season), as has his ridiculous field goal % (in 07 and 08 he was a ridonkulous 62% from the floor, where this season he’s a more mortal 57%). I’ve got to say I was surprised how low his block totals are for a guy who jumps as well as he does. If Chandler regains form he’s worth every penny of that $60 million the Hornets gave him to flee Chicago, but if this 8-8-1 crap continues- especially playing with the best PG on planet earth- he’s off the list entirely.

42. Rudy Gay, MEM, F, 22 yrs
2,579,400 09/10- 3,280,996 10/11- 4,422,782 (QO)
Has made it ok for even the manliest of men to say “I Love Gay!” While his PER is down slightly to start the year (from 17 last year to 16), he’s averaging 20 points and five boards a night, and sometimes he even accidentally picks up an assist. Seriously he’s averaging 1.7 assists: how can you not find two measly assists a game playing with OJ Mayo? Is it that hard? Once a half you can’t kick it out to OJ or the Other Racist Gasol brother for a jumper?

41. Marcus Camby (38), LAC, C, 34 yrs
$8,000,000 09/10- $7,650,000
One of the most reliable and underrated players in the league, averaging a double-double with at least 3 blocks for the fifth straight season, and is signed to a very modest deal. Sure he probably would have brought Denver (the sunshine state! Gorgeous!) into the conversation of best team in the West, but who wants to win when you can deal him to the Clippers for nothing just to avoid the luxury tax? That sound you heard was Nuggets’ fan collectively slamming their hands into a car door at the thought of what could have been.

40. OJ Mayo, MEM, G, 21 yrs
3,875,040 09/10- 4,165,560 10/11- 4,456,200 (TO) 11/12- 5,632,636 (TO) 12/13- 7,390,018 (QO)
So far so good for Mayo, who’s averaging 20 pts, 4 boards, 1.22 stls, and is shooting over 40% from 3 (all adding up to a solid PER of 17.51). The assists should go up too if they ever move him to the point. Good thing the Timberwolves thought Kevin Love and Mike Miller were more valuable.

38. (tie) Baron Davis, LAC, G, 29 yrs
5 yrs- $65.25 million
Tracy McGrady, HOU, G, 29 yrs
21,126,874 09/10- 23,239,561
On talent alone these two are top 10-15 guys, but they’re injury prone and WAY overpriced as they hit their 30’s. Oh and COMBINED they’ve won a grand total of two playoff series in their careers (both by Baron). On the bright side they could be yours for the low, low price this season of just- are you ready for this- 32 MILLION DOLLARS!?!?!? Operators are standing by to take your order now!

37. Pau Gasol, LAL, F, 28 yrs
15,080,312 09/10- 16,451,250 10/11- 17,822,187
Sure he’s soft and disappears as the playoffs wear on but he still gets you some GREAT regular season numbers AND has no problem making incredibly racially insensitive statements. Ok so that last part isn’t very good, but because he’s European, nobody seems to care- kind of like Euro’s attitudes about the playoffs.

36. Caron Butler, WAS, G/F, 28 yrs
8,999,980 09/10- 9,780,970 10/11- 10,561,960
Joins Camby on the constantly underrated team. What else can you ask for from a guy who has averaged at least 20 pts (this season he’s at a career high 22), 6.5 boards, 2 steals and an 85% free throw shooter? What’s that, you’d like a reasonable contract? Done and done. If Wiz GM Ernie Grunfeld’s hadn’t saddled him with Hibachi and Antwan Jamison through 2031, you might even see him help his team to win a playoff round or two.

35. Chauncey Billups, DEN, PG, 32 yrs
11,050,000 09/10- 12,100,000 10/11- 13,150,000 11/12- 14,200,000 (TO)
So remember when I said I hated this trade for Denver (We love you Denver! The city by the bay!)? Kind of looking foolish right now. I’ll stand by my point that regardless of how well Billups plays (and he’s playing well) Denver will still never be as good as the Lakers, Hornets or Jazz, AND Denver’s not going to love this contract in two more years, but hey they’re playing a lot better than I thought right now.

34. Jose Calderon, TOR, G, 27 yrs
7,438,018 09/10- 8,219,009 10/11- 9,000,000 11/12- 9,780,993 12/13- 10,561,985
An unreal facilitator and a solid defender signed to a bargain of a contract. However at 27 this is his peak, which means he’s not a number one, or even number two option on a championship team. Great player to have though if you’re Toronto since he gets the ball to Chris Bosh- well at least until he bolts Canada as a free agent after next season. Then who’s Calderon going to pass to?

33. Rajan Rondo, BOS, PG, 22 yrs
1,646,784 09/10- 2,623,326 10/11- 3,780,214
At just 22 he’s got Finals experience and is one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the league. If he develops anything close to a reliable jumper, he’s top 20 or better…wait for it…wait…a little longer…you know it’s coming…it’s too easy…but I can’t resist- good thing Phoenix needed to avoid the luxury tax more than they needed Rondo, because he certainly couldn’t help them right now. Suns fans, meet the Nuggets fans.

32. Josh Smith, ATL, F, 22 yrs
10,000,000
I know he’s young and talented and a helluva an athlete- but really what is he? A high-flying rebounder/shot blocker with zero offensive game. It’s a fancy, exciting way of saying he’s a role player. For 10 million this year? Done and done. But if he’s expecting max money or anywhere close to rebound and defend as a small forward then he’s losing value for me.

31. Andris Biedrins, GS, C, 22 yrs
9,000,000 09/10- 9,000,000 10/11- 9,000,000 11/12-9,000,000 12/13-9,000,000 13/14-9,000,000 (PO)
What was more unlikely- Tavaris Jackson throwing FOUR touchdown passes yesterday against the Cards, or Warriors GM Chris Mullen-who would be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer if they had a HOF for GM’s who can’t stop themselves from handing out horrible contracts- locking up a 22 year old center who’s a potential double-double monster for 9 million a year for at least the next five seasons? I don’t know what the answer is, but I’m pretty sure the combination of these things means the Apocalypse will be happening any day now.

30. Elton Brand, PHI, F, 29 yrs
13,757,844 09/10- 14,858,471 10/11- 15,959,099 11/12- 17,059,726 12/13- 18,160,354
So far not so good for Brand in Philly. A year after playing just 8 games because of an Achilles injury, Elton’s scoring and shooting percentage numbers are way down, as are the hopes of the Sixers and their fans. I’m putting Brand here because Brand WAS an all-star player (career averages of 20 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks), and I think we’ll see that guy again before the end of the season. However, if Brand’s career takes a Chris Webber-like turn, it’s going to get ugly for Sixers fans. Thank goodness the Phillies won the World Series because with the state of the Sixers and the impending Kevin Kolb Era,

29. David West, NO, F, 28 yrs
9,862,500 09/10- $9,075,000 10/11- 8,287,500 11/12- 7,525,000 (PO)
I had to double check the salary figures- actually, I triple checked them- an all-star caliber power forward IN HIS PRIME has a salary that goes DOWN every season? Wait what? Greatest deal since the Louisiana Purchase for the Hornets, but West might want to look at an agent who’s not dyslexic for his next contract (wait the contract is supposed to go UP every year? Ohhhh whoops sorry about that David. Well at least you’ll be past your prime for your next contract. Um yeah I’ll just pack my stuff and leave you be. Been nice working with you!)

28. Steve Nash, PHX, G, 34 yrs
12,250,000 09/10- 13,125,000 (TO)
Nash was a great player whose game is starting to fall off. He still runs an offense as well as anyone and his contract situation is manageable, but his defense has gone from atrocious to downright non-existent. His years as an elite point guard are over, but he’d still be great on a team with some weapons that can hide his defense. You know, like the Knicks in 2010. I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

27. Kevin Garnett, F, 32 yrs old
24,750,000 09/10- 16,400,000 10/11- 18,800,000 11/12- 21,200,000
KG is one of my favorite players of all-time (My top 5 is Shawn Kemp, Gary Payton, Chris Webber, KG, and Nash. I know, I thought that list would look more impressive, but there it is. This is what I get growing up in Canada- too many decisions to make as a sports fan), but I had trouble even putting him this high. I've heard ad nauseum about KG being a great leader and teammate and defender, and he's playing a huge part in Boston's big start (as of this writing they're an insane 21-2). But he's 32 years old with over 1,000 games on his odometer, and you have to pay him almost $25 million this year and then a guaranteed $56 million the next three years, when he'll be 36. Read that last sentence again. He has FAR more value to Boston than anybody else, but they're going to be stuck with that contract because quite honestly no team would trade any of the other 49 guys on this list for him.

26. Al Horford, ATL, F, 22 yrs
4,026,720 09/10- 4,307,640 10/11- 5,444,857 (TO) 11/12- 7,143,652 (QO)
Except for his rebounds (which are down just slightly) Horford has shown an improvement in every category as he looks to build on a solid rookie season. At worst he should average a double-double by next year, and if he can develop any semblance of post moves, the native of the Dominican could become one of the East’s best power forwards. So he’s good- but the Hawks new unis? As Stewy Griffin would say, what the deuce? I know these debuted in 2007, but it still doesn’t make them any better. What was wrong with the classic red and gold from the 80’s? Nothing, of course, but god forbid the team hold onto any kind of tradition when they can throw a boring new look out there. For a team in an ownership battle, they don’t have time to make major personnel decisions, but they do have time to approve horrible jerseys? All 12 Hawks fans that are left should be up in arms about this. I would be.

UP NEXT: Top 7-25

NBA All-Division Teams: The Leastern Conference

2008-11-14T12:01:00.001-08:00

Heyo! Welcome to part two of the first annual preseason (even though we’re two weeks into the season) NBA All-division teams. Today it’s the Leastern Conference, and despite the strength at the top of the conference, I’m still not buying that the talent gap has lessened much between conferences this season. Just look at the teams below, and tell me any of them are as strong or stronger than what I gave you out West. Especially the second teams (except, surprisingly the Southeast): the second teams are terrible. Anyway, on with it!

CENTRAL- CHI,CLE,DET,IND,MIL
G Allen Iverson, Pistons
G Rip Hamilton, Pistons
F Lebron James, Cavaliers
F Danny Granger, Pacers
C Raweed Wallace, Pistons

G Mo Williams, Cavaliers
G Michael Redd, Bucks
F Richard Jefferson, Bucks
F Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavaliers
Solid, but not outstanding first team. The second group? Ugh. Could argue that Rodney Stuckey belongs here instead of Mo Williams or Tayshaun or even Michael Redd. I also did not include Derrick Rose here (or any rookie on any of these teams. Not yet), but that could change as soon as mid-season. These teams are for right here, right now to start the season, so Rose just misses the cut, but if we’re talking potential, the only other guy in this division I would take over Rose is Bronbron. That’s it. Also notice the complete lack of Bulls. And some are calling them a playoff team? I don’t think so.

ATLANTIC- BOS,NYJ,NYK,PHI,TOR
G Jose Calderon, Craptors
G Vince Carter, Nets
F Paul Pierce, Celtics
F Kevin Garnett, Celtics
C Chris Bosh, Craptors

G Andre Miller, Sixers
G Andre Igoudala, Sixers
F David Lee, Knicks
F Zach Randolph, Knicks
F Elton Brand, Sixers
And welcome to the NBA’s worst division! The Atlantic everybody! That’s a decent starting lineup, but the second string is the worst of the six. Yes, even worse than the Northwest’s. When Zach Randolph is the 10th best player in your division, it’s bad. Honestly, who replaces him? Ray Allen? He’s a shell of a shell of his former self. Jermaine O’Neal is half of what he used to be. Nate Robinson? Samuel Dalembert? Maybe Rajon Rondo. Maybe. It’s the worst division and yet you’ll hear more about four of these five teams than just about anyone else. Don’t you just love an East Coast bias?

SOUTHEAST- ATL,CHA,MIA,ORL,WAS
G Gilbert Arenas, Wizards
G Dwyane Wade, Heat
G Joe Johnson, Hawks
F Caron Butler, Wizards
C Dwight Howard, Magic

G Mike Bibby, Hawks
F Rashard Lewis, Magic
F Shawn Marion, Heat
F Antawn Jamison, Wizards
F Al Hortford, Hawks
I don’t know about you, but I was surprised at the depth and quality in this division. There’s not an elite team among the five, and at least three of them probably won’t make the playoffs, and yet they put together two of the most solid groups of any division. DWade, Hibachi, Joe Johnson AND Dwight Howard on one team? It’s definitely the most unconventional of the starting 5’s, but with those four guys around Superman, they’d also win the award for the most fun team to watch. People from Kazakhstan would say “that’s nice! High five!” about them. The second unit isn’t too shabby either.

So there you have it. Again, no rookies to start, but that could change by midseason. Enjoy the weekend everybody!

NBA All-Division Teams

2008-11-13T14:06:00.002-08:00

One of the many things I love about college sports is the idea of All-Conference teams. So I thought, why not apply this to the NBA with not just the Western and Eastern conferences, but with All-Division teams? You're right, it IS a great idea! And why stop with just a first team all division when you can add a SECOND team all division? Again, brilliant, I know. Even though we’re a couple of weeks into the season, this is going to count as a “preseason” All-Division team, and we’ll do another at the All-Star Break and then at season’s end. This is not only more fun than should be allowed, it's an interesting way to look at not only the strength of a division, but the teams within that division. Basically if your team can't get a few players on a 1st or 2nd all-division squad that's made up of just 5 teams, then let me just say I don't like your teams' playoff chances this year (a certain team that resides at 600 First Avenue in Minneapolis might want to pay attention here).

A couple of things I should mention about naming the teams: I'm not going to mandate that we have the traditional 5 positions in a starting five (PG, SG, SF, PF, C) because so few teams actually use that anymore. However, I do require each team to have at least one "ball handler" (Joel that one's just for you) and one "post player". A ball handler can be a true, pure, pass-first point guard, or a combo guard like Gilbert Arenas, Joe Johnson or Brandon Roy. A post player can be a power forward or center, but it's generally a guy who spends his time, as Hubie Brown would say, "in the painted area." The other 3 spots can be whatever, but as long as you've got somebody who can handle the ball and a low post presence, then you're good to go.

Today we’ll start with the Western Conference.

NORTHWEST- POR, UTA, DEN, MIN, OKC
FIRST TEAM
G Deron Williams, Jazz
G Chauncey Billups, Nuggets
F Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
F Carlos Boozer, Jazz
F Al Jefferson, Timberpups

SECOND TEAM
G Brandon Roy, Blazers
F Kevin Durant, Bandits
F Andre Kirilenko, Jazz
F Lamar Aldridge, Blazers
C Memet Okur, Jazz
Pretty solid first team right there. With Billups joining the division, he replaces Roy on the first team. The second team here is the weakest in the Western Conference, and looking at how the teams were expected to be, that’s not much of a surprise. And for the Wolves fans out there, no I didn’t even consider Mike Miller. Or Randy Foye. Now if we had a spot for “most overpaid white guy” then it would have been a toss-up between Mark Madsen (paying Madsen anything to be on an NBA roster, even in McDonald’s cheeseburgers, would be overpaying him) and Brian Cardinal. So the Wolves have that going for them, which is nice.

PACIFIC- GS, LAC, LAL, PHX, SAC
G Steve Nash, Suns
G Kobe Bryant, Lakers
F Pau Gasol, Lakers
F Amare Stoudamire, Suns
C Marcus Camby, Clippers- that just doesn't look right either

G Baron Davis, Warriors- I mean Clippers
G Kevin Martin, Kings
F Lamar Odom, Lakers
F Corey Maggette, Clippers- I mean Warriors
C Andrew Bynum, Lakers
Maybe you couldn’t play the three big guys on the first team together, but I couldn’t leave Stoudamire or Camby out of the starting lineup, and for the fifth spot, Gasol made the most sense. Kind of weird to see only two Suns on either team, but that’s where I didn’t feel Shaq, Grant Hill, or anyone else but Nash and Amare deserved consideration. How about four Lakers in the top 10? I may have overthought them having too many issues to go back to the Finals.

SOUTHWEST- DAL,HOU,MEM,NO,SA
G Chris Paul, Hornets
G Manu Ginobili, Spurs
F Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
F Tim Duncan, Spurs
C Yao Ming, Rockets

G Tony Parker, Spurs
G Tracy McGrady, Rockets
F Ron Artest, Rockets
F David West, Hornets
C Tyson Chandler, Hornets
Best starting lineup of any of the six divisions right here. As much as I hate him, it kills me to leave Parker out of the starting lineup, but it came down to him, GI-NO-BI-LEEEEE!!!!, and Yao, Tony P got left out. Mostly because there’s no one else for the second team who could be considered a ball-handler. In crunch-time though, there’s no doubt Parker’s in for Yao. Just a scary, scary, scary good division. No Memphis Grizzlies, but that could change by midseason depending on what Gay and Mayo do, and when the Rockets’ inevitable injuries strike.

The Miller/Love for Mayo Trade

2008-11-12T10:34:00.001-08:00

Before I can say "I told you so" I guess I should first probably tell you. I swore that I had weighed in over the summer on the Timberwolves trade with Memphis. The Wolves dealt rookie OJ Mayo and the horrible contracts of Marko Jaric (3 years and $21 million) and Greg Buckner (3 years and $12 million), and the expiring contract of Antoine Walker (technically has 3 years and almost $40 million left but there's a team option after this year). They got back rookie Kevin Love, sharpshooter Mike Miller (2 years for 18.75 million), the awful contract of Brian Cardinal (2 years-$13 million. For Brian Cardinal. Seriously) and the expiring contract of Jason Collins ($6.2 mill this season. Not to be confused with his twin brother Jarron. By the way, what's up with Stanford and twin semi-useless tall brothers? First it was the Collins twins, then Jessica and Stacy Lopez. Does Stanford give discounts if you're tall and twins and also productive pro players with marginal to no NBA value?).

Let's just get the cap ramifications out of the way first. Dumping two awful three year contracts (almost $12 million a year for the next three years) for two years of Brian Cardinal makes sense. Instead of being at the cap through 2011, the Wolves will be at about $46 million (close to $10 mill under) next summer, and puts go WAY under (roughly $20 million in salary- giving them roughly $35 million to spend) for what should be the free agent bonanza of 2010. Of course, they're going to need all of that cap room because you won't just have to overpay, you'll have to REALLY overpay to get players to sign as free agents in Minnesota.

Ok, so financially this makes a lot of sense, but that's only one part of this. Now, a lot of folks are going to judge this deal based on Love vs. Mayo, which is unfair because this deal was not Love for Mayo straight up, but instead Love, Mike Miller and getting out of salary cap purgatory a year early for OJ Mayo. I'm also going to remind you we cannot judge what kind of players Mayo and Love will be for about three seasons. I know Mayo is playing lights out right now (scoring 31 and 33 his past two outings), and so far looks every bit the all-star that some projected him to be. But we're only 8 games into the season, which is a REALLY small sample size. We also need to remember that young bigs in this league take at least three years to develop. Look no further than the Wolves own Al Jefferson, who took 3-4 years to develop into the All-star post he is today.

Judgements made too hastily on deals can look foolish as time goes on. The best example is the Mark Prior vs Joe Mauer debate. I was strongly in the "draft Mark Prior" camp, and for the first few years Prior took the league by storm, looking like the next Roger Clemens, which made the Twins look bad for taking Mauer. Now? Prior's career has been completely derailed by injuries while Mauer just won his second batting title (which is two more than any other catcher in history), and could enter into the "best catcher of all-time" talk before all is said and done. I was wrong on that one and the Twins were right.

So while we can't judge how well this trade works, we can look at where the Wolves are at philosophically. A few weeks ago Wolves asst GM Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg was on KFAN with Paul Allen (one of the things I enjoy about PA is that because he's able to ask people difficult questions or address difficult topics honestly and openly because he keeps things positive). PA asked Hoiberg about the Mayo deal and why it was made, and Hoiberg's response was something to the effect that while McHale loved Love, they didn't consider dealing OJ Mayo until the Grizzlies included Mike Miller. That right there tells me the Wolves ideals and philosophy for rebuilding the franchise is badly flawed. Whether the plan was to trade for Miller and keep him or to deal him for more picks/young players/cap space, this is not a trade Minnesota should have made.

On a championship team, Mike Miller is a third or fourth option. Great outside shooter (career 41% 3 point) and an excellent defensive rebounder for a 2 guard, but he's not a go-to guy, and he's not a good defender. At all. Having Miller on the Timberwolves would be like putting some phat 18" rims on my Chevy Cavalier. It might enhance the value, but only slightly, and it's still a Cavalier. It's the same thing with the Wolves. This is a 30 win team- at best this year, and I can't see them being much better next year. Miller has two years left on his deal, and they'd have to be extremely fortunate to be even a playoff contender before he's a free agent.

Sure Miller is a nice piece to have, but he's not going to put the Wolves over the hump into a championship contender, or even a playoff contender. The problem here (or one of them) is that McHale and Hoiberg and company believe this should be a contender, and that Miller IS that missing piece. McHale said around the draft he thought the Wolves would win 40 games this year. Um, really? How's that?

Look at the core of this team (pre Mayo trade) and tell me how they're a playoff team. Here's what we know:
Al Jefferson is an all-star- on offense. He is atrocious defensively, and thus far in his career has shown zero ability or desire to play D. If he's going to be your franchise cornerstone (and Glen Taylor locking him up to a long-term extension before the season tells me he is), you MUST compliment him with a Samuel Dalembert-type center or post player that can defend the paint. What you should absolutely positively not do is team him with an equally bad defensive player, no matter how much you think they’ll compliment each other offensively. More on this in a minute.
Ryan Gomes- probably your best all-around player, but on a good team, he'd be a 6th man.
Craig Smith- your most consistent post player other than Al, and on a good team, he'd be 9th or 10th in the rotation.
Bassy Telfair- a backup point guard- on this team, or any other. If he's your starter, you're in trouble.
Corey Brewer- excellent perimeter defender and a real high flyer, but can't dribble or shoot.
The jury remains out on Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, and this is a pivotal year for both to prove they deserve new contracts when their rookie deals expire soon.

Call me crazy, but even with breakout seasons from Foye and McCants this is not a playoff team with the additions of Mike Miller and Kevin Love. Feel free to disagree with me, but please some kind of argument that revolves around facts or stats instead of just “well we feel like this could work.” ESPN.com basketball stats guru John Hollinger is one of my favorite basketball scribes, and I love that he uses progressive stats and explanations that make him the Bill James of basketball stats. While I usually agree with Professor Hollinger, I did not when it came to the Wolves. Hollinger argued that preseason results in the NBA DO matter (the Wolves had one of the league’s best records in the pre-season), and that this was a good indicator of what the Wolves could do. He believed that adding an excellent outside shooter in Miller and a good mid-range shooter in Love would make the Wolves a formidable offensive unit that could run and gun their way to be a borderline playoff team.

The problem with this thinking is that if the aim there is to be a run-and-gun team like Phoenix was pre-Shaq or Golden State was a few years ago, the Wolves don’t have anywhere near the firepower of those teams, or even an adequate defense. I just don’t think enough people understand how bad defensively the Jefferson/Love combo is defensively and how difficult that would be to overcome. If a decent post player (and last I checked there’s a few of those in the West) will come in and score pretty much at will against the T-Pups, that means less defensive boards and less chances for outlets and fast-breaks. If your whole idea is to run-and-gun, isn’t that kind of an issue? So whether you think the Wolves were, or were not, contenders will Mike Miller, I’m not sure how Kevin Love made any sense as the guy to team with Jefferson.

IF you thought this made the Wolves contenders, it was a bad trade. And if you believe they could grab Miller and deal him for picks or prospects, I have a hard time seeing how that could be more valuable than what OJ Mayo could have been. Mayo looked to be a supreme talent at off-guard, and there was word circulating around the draft he could be better than Michael Beasley. Wolves fans seemed pumped on draft night when he fell in their lap, and yet McHale and Co. still believed a better idea was to deal a player who people would actually pay to see.

It’s also illogical to argue that “Minnesota shouldn’t take Mayo because they have too many combo guards already.” This would only be true if the Wolves had too many GOOD combo guards. As mentioned, the two guards they had, like Foye, McCants, and Brewer, are still unproven at best. In the NBA one player can make more of a difference than any other professional sport, so why on earth would you give up the best player, and potential all-star, in a deal for a good 4th or 5th wheel, cap space, and rookie post player who at best could be a 6’9 Brad Miller and who doesn’t compliment your best player defensively at all? Personally, I roll the dice with Mayo, and if Foye and McCants prove they can play, you figure out playing time or trades when it happens. The Wolves went another direction, and so far it doesn’t look good. I hope, like with the Prior/Mauer debate, I’m wrong, but I have a feeling I’m going to be hoping I’m wrong on a lot of moves the Wolves will make in order for them to be successful.

A Better Late Than Never Timberwolves Preview: Part I

2008-11-07T12:08:00.003-08:00

I was going to include a Timberwolves musing in my Random Rambling NBA preview, but I had so much to say about it, I felt it deserved its own post. Now that I'm back in the Twin Cities (and it really is good to be back. I love Minnesota) I'm going to be seeing and reading and hearing a lot about the Wolves. I'm more positive about this team than I've been since they acquired Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell as they're young, and will at the very least be entertaining. Before we get to expectations for the season, I need to discuss two things: one is the Kevin Love trade and how it will effect this season and beyond, which I'll do in another post. Today, I want to talk about Kevin McHale for one last time.

Last week I heard McHale on The Fan with Paul Allen. He gushed for 20 minutes about summer league ball he had watched, his team, other teams, his players, other players, and everything in between. I've always painted McHale as never putting as much time as he should into the job, yet after listening to him, I realize there's nothing he loves more than basketball. He also loves his job, is genuinely frustrated things haven't turned out well, and really, truly, madly, deeply wants to get things turned around and give the fans of Minnesota a winner. He really does.

Of course, as he's proven over the past dozen years, he won't because he can't. For all his love of basketball, the man has proven over and over and over again that he cannot properly evaluate talent or build a legitimate NBA contender. He just can't. You know his history, but here's just a few of his blunders over the years (for a full list check out an excellent summation here from firemchale.com that will make you throw up in your mouth either a little or a lot):

Corey Brewer instead of about 12 other guys, Randy Foye over Brandon Roy, Rashad McCants instead of Danny Granger, Wally Szczerbiak's Expiring Contract over, well, a lot of people, Ndi Edi over the three guys who went right after him (Kendrick Perkins, Leandrihno Barbosa, or Josh Howard), taking Paul Grant and Will Avery over anybody with a pulse, losing FOUR 1st round picks from the Joe Smith "signing", the first trade with Boston, and the single worst moment in the history of the franchise, when he traded Sam Cassell- WHO ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS PLAYS WELL IN A CONTRACT YEAR!?!?!?!?- AND A FIRST ROUND PICK to the Clippers for Marko Jaric, who he then signed to a 7 year deal.

I'll give you a moment to throw up a little bit after reading that. Just put your head between your knees, breathe slowly, and try not to pass out.

The point of all of that, besides making you a little nauscious, is that if you're going to cheer for the Timberwolves (and judging by their TV numbers, as well as all the empty blue seats at 601 First Avenue, there aren't many) you have to accept the fact that McHale is running the show, and will be for the foreseeable ever. You have to accept that he's going to make more bad draft picks, trades, and signings, because he's doing it for well over a decade, and there's no reason to think he's suddenly going to change. It'd be like watching a Keanu Reeves moving and complaining that he's a bad actor. We know this. Everybody knows this. But if the script is good enough (like the first Matrix movie. And maybe even the second one. After absolutely hating it at first, I've seen it on cable a few times, and it's not as bad I remembered. The third one? Still abhorrently, inexcusably awful), and/or they put enough good actors around him, then it can be decent. Keanu Reeves movies aren't for everybody, but for those who take him for what he is, they can be enjoyable.

I'm saying all of this because I'm not going to be bringing up McHale's past anymore, or keep calling for his head, because neither do any good. He is what he is and he's continue to be what he's going to be until he doesn't want the job anymore because Glen Taylor refuses to fire him. That's not to say I'm not going to disagree, and loudly, with any moves he makes from here on out, because I will. But I'm done chanting "Fire McHale!" because no matter how much he deserves it, it's not going to happen.

So if you can accept all of that, and understand that the Minnesota Timberwolves are basically going to have to build a winner in spite of the guy running the team, then welcome aboard the Timberwolves Bandwagon! Plenty of good seats still available, especially in blue.

NFL at the Halfway Point

2008-11-05T09:30:00.000-08:00

Well we're now officially past the halfway point of the NFL season, so I thought it'd be a good time to review my preseason picks. Long story short is I got a few right, but a lot wrong. Welcome to the NFL in the Age of Parity.

Here's what I predicted in September:
AFC
East- New England (including best overall record)
North- Pittsburgh (1st rd bye)
South- Indianapolis
West- Denver
Wildcards- Houston, Baltimore

NFC
East- Dallas (best record)
North- Green Bay
South- New Orleans (1st rd bye)
West- Arizona
Wildcards- Philly and Washington

Here's how things stack up through 9 weeks:
NFC
East- NY Giants (7-1)
North- Chicago (5-3)
South- Carolina (6-2)
West- Arizona (5-3)
Wildcards- Tampa Bay (6-3), Washington (6-3)

AFC
East- New England (5-3)
North- Pittsburgh (6-2)
South- Tennessee (8-0)
West- Denver (4-4)
Wildcards- NY Jets, Buffalo, Baltimore (all 5-3)
(Division tie-breakers: 1. Head-to-Head 2. Division win % 3. Common games
(Wildcard tie-breakers: 1. H2h 2. Conference win %)

WHAT I GOT RIGHT
Arizona, New England, Pittsburgh, and Denver winning their divisions
Baltimore and Washington as wild cards

Allow me to gloat about targeting Kurt Warner in the latter rounds of both of my fantasy drafts, and getting him. He was awesome down the stretch last year, and he's been MVP caliber so far. Whether he can stay healthy for the whole seasons remains to be seen, but that offense is awesome, and the defense has been good enough in a really bad division that the Cards have a good chance to get the second best record in the NFC. New England has been worse than advertised and the Broncos are winning the AFC West by default. Pittsburgh has been a top 5 team, but if they don't do a better job of protecting Roethlisberger (I HATE how every talking head calls him "Ben." How long has he been in the league? You should be able to pronounce Roth-Less-bur-ger by now. Not that hard), they're in trouble.

I also correctly predicted the struggles of San Diego, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Minnesota, as well as Washnigton and Baltimore (although I did not see Flacco being this consistent this early) being playoff contenders.

WHAT I GOT WRONG
Um, how much time do you have? Because there's a lot to talk about here. Dallas, New Orleans and Indy have been decimated by injuries. The two most unexplainable results so far have been Indy's performace and Jacksonville's complete inability to run the football. Yeah, Manning was without his O-line early in the year, but now that everybody's back, they're still average at best. What gives? Is Manning playing hurt? Have some of the guys around him (on both sides of the ball) just in a simple decline? And Jacksonville can't use the injury excuse. It's the same guys that bowled over the league last year, and this year it just hasn't happened. Not even close. If anybody has an explantion for either of these, I'd love to hear it.

I could not have been more wrong about the Bears, Giants, and Titans. I had the Bears pegged for the worst team in the league, but the defense has returned to an elite level, Forte has been the back the Bears had with Thomas Jones and were hoping to get with Cedric Benson, and Kyle Orton has morphed into a real deal legit QB. Who knew? Not me. Not anyone. Based on their 2007 season The Giants were, according to the Football Outsiders guys, the flukiest/luckiest/worst team to win a Super Bowl. They're proving this year that they just got a late start on things, and that the end of 2007 was much more indicative of the team they are than the beginning of 07. They've shown incredible depth (especially on the D-line. They lost Strahan AND Imoymura and are still #1 in the league in sacks. Wow!), and Eli has proven to be a legit top 10 (maybe top 5? I can't quite go there yet) QB.

I figured the Titans were screwed with Vince Young. Well VY got hurt...and Kerry Collins' mistake-free football has helped them to an 8-0 record. Again, nobody saw this one coming either. The defense has been all-world, the Chris Johnson/Lendale White running back combo is the best in football, and they haven't been turning it over. In a season with no super power, that's been good enough.

I was also wrong pretty much the entire NFC South, as well as Houston, who just haven't gotten it together on either side of the ball. Whoopsy daisy!

JURY IS STILL OUT
Green Bay, Philly, Buffalo, NY Jets, Denver, San Diego
All these teams are in playoff contention, and while Denver has been better and San Diego worse than people expected, the Chargers could very well put it together and take a horrible, horrible division.

Welcome Back Joe Dumars

2008-11-03T09:17:00.005-08:00

Looks like Allen Iverson is on the move again. According to numerous sources, a deal is all but done that would send AI to the Detroit Pistons for guard and Colorado native Chauncey Billups, F/C Antonio McDyess and somebody named Cheik Samb. IF/when this deal goes down, it looks like a brilliant move for Pistons GM Joe Dumars, and makes absolutely positively no sense for Denver. None whatsoever.

I owe Dumars an apology. After building a surprising champion around other people's castoffs, Dumars looked like an up-and-coming Genius GM. Then he wiffed badly on the Darko pick, screwed up the Ben Wallace resigning, and then stood around and did nothing while his team fell from Title Contender Status to "Only good enough to win a round or two." I gave Dumars crap last week about talking big all summer about blowing up the team, and yet he did nothing. Until now. Well I'd say this move would count as doing a really, really big something.

AI is in a contract year, and while he always plays hard, he should be extra motivated to not only take advantage of his first real chance at an NBA title in years, but also to prove he's worth one more big contract. If things go well, the Pistons are back in the title mix. If they don't, AI's $21 million comes off the books, and along with Raweed Wallace's contract coming off this summer as well, the Pistons will now, if they choose, be far enough under the cap to make a run at the 2010 free agent class of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and more. The Pistons are now major players for one of those guys since they're going to have a good young nucleus (While Dumars should get ripped for the Darko pick, he's drafted very well with his mid to late first rounders in the past few years), and cap room to spare. The Pistons are suddenly looking at the kind of flexibility most teams can only dream about.

For the Nuggets, I cannot seem to find a way to make this make sense. Give them credit for rolling the dice on AI, but things obviously didn't work out. With him, they're a borderline playoff team. With this trade they would be...a borderline playoff team. Granted, their salary cap space is screwed until at least 2012. Melo has four years and $65.7 million left, Nene has four years and $43 million, and Kenyon Martin has three years and $45.9 million. Oh and all three of those guys have player options in the final years of their contracts, where they COULD make $18.5M, $16.5M, and $11.6M respectively in the final year of their deals. It's a stone cold solid LOCK that Nene and KMart won't be opting out early, and I doubt Melo could get more than $18.5 a year, so you're going to have those three guys for the duration of their deals. And this doesn't even include the extension that's coming for JR Smith.

WITHOUT AI's $21 million, the team is still right at the cap for the next four years. Now add Chancey at four years for $50.4 million and McDyess at 2 years and $13.6 mill and the Nuggets are in luxury tax land for through 2012. And for what? Is that nucleus a top 4 team in the West? No way! So you're capped out with immovable contracts where you're going to be in "Timberwolves Territory" (at least during the KG years) where you're just good enough to be a borderline playoff team but not bad enough to get any high draft picks or the cap room to sign free agents. Things are not looking up in the Mile High City.

NBA Win Total Over/Unders 2008-09

2008-11-02T07:20:00.003-08:00

Heyo! Had so much fun doing with this with the NFL when the season started, why not throw out predictions for the NBA as well? Feel free to play along at home.

Atlanta Hawks 39.5 Over
Boston Celtics 56.5 Over
Charlotte Bobcats 34.5 Under
Chicago Bulls 41.5 Under
Cleveland Cavaliers 48.5 OVER
Dallas Mavericks 48.5 Under
Detroit Pistons 51.5 Under
Denver Nuggets 45.5 Under
Golden State Warriors 39.5 Under
Houston Rockets 53.5 Under
Indiana Pacers 34.5 Over
Los Angeles Clippers 33.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 56.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 23.5 Over
Miami Heat 33.5 Over
Milwaukee Bucks 32.5 Over
Minnesota Timberwolves 30.5 Over
New Jersey Nets 33.5 Under
New Orleans Hornets 52.5 Over
New York Knicks 29.5 Over
Oklahoma City Thunder 26.5 Under
Orlando Magic 50.5 Under
Philadelphia 76ers 46.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 51.5 UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 Over
Sacramento Kings 31.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 52.5 Under
Toronto Raptors 47.5 Under
Utah Jazz 51.5 Over
Washington Wizards 38.5 Over

My Five Confidence picks LOCKS
1. New Orleans Hornets 52.5 OVER
2. San Antonio Spurs 52.5 UNDER
3. Miami Heat 33.5 OVER
4. Phoenix Suns 51.5 UNDER
5. Utah Jazz 51.5 OVER

A Random Rambling NBA Preview

2008-10-28T16:06:00.004-07:00

My friend Joel loves the NBA as much, or maybe even more, than anyone I know. He does this despite living in Canada, where all you get to watch during basketball season are the Raptors (and let's be honest, we all hate the Raptors. And Toronto), hockey, and curling. It's really, really hard to be a real fan of the NBA and yet Joel does it. Well my friend Joel recently broke both of his big toes. As Ron Burgandy would say "Great knights of Columbus that hurt!" That is a pain I cannot imagine, and so I'm writing an NBA preview in his honor, in hopes that perhaps my meandering musings on his beloved NBA will brighten his day a little.

And for the record, I made my NBA Finals pick BEFORE reading the Sports Guy today- I just didn't get it posted before he did. Honestly, all original content here. So since I was going to save that for last and it's been spoiled, let's start at the top and work our way down...or somewhere

And the Winner Is Not...
If you're like me and you've read a few sports websites or blogs lately, you've noticed that there's a LOT of people who like the chances of seeing an Finals rematch of Lakers vs. Celtics part deux. Me? Not so much. Let's start with the defending champs. The Celtics are a year older, and for a team whose three best players are now 31 (Paul Pierce), 32 (KG), and 33 (Ray Allen), which means in NBA terms means those three are aging in dog years. KG is one of my favorite players of all-time, but he's already logged over 1000 games, and for a guy who works as maniacally hard as he does, those aren't exactly all highway miles. Allen is in a steady decline, and his free fall could happen at any minute. People said it last year (and for good reason) and I'll say it again: shooting guards not named Michael Jordan start losing their game pretty rapidly after the age of 32. Not only that, they lost their "glue guy" in James Posey and did nothing to replace him. I'm not saying the Celtics will be horrible. Far from it, actually. They're still one of the best five teams in the league They'll win their division (although I suppose that's not saying much), push for the league's best record, and possibly go as far as the conference finals. But that's it. A LOT went right for this group last year, and I think the age of their stars, and probably injuries, starts catching up with them.

The Lakers are the NBA's version of the Dallas Cowboys (or are the Cowboys the NFL's Lakers? Discuss, discuss...), meaning they're a walking talking dunking real life soap opera. Other teams might not be able to handle all the extra crap, but I don't see why any of this stuff would bother them now. But if you're assuming the Lakers are going back to the Finals, it means you're also assuming the following...
- Kobe Bryant has played roughly 187,482 minutes of basketball since the preseason last year. A full year, a full playoffs, and then the Olympics, and now Kobe and his bad pinky are going to carry the Lakers through another 100+ games?
- Lamar Odom will be just peachy all season about coming off the bench. Because when I think model teammate, I think Lamar Odom...oh wait, no not exactly.
- That if/When Odom forces a trade, the Lakers will be able to get not just full value back for him, but also a guy who, when he's starting and happy, fits in as well as Odom does. Probably a good time to mention that Odom has Second Banana value, yet the Lakers already have not just two, but IF Andrew Bynum's healthy, three good to great players. So you're asking whoever Odom is dealt for to play D, rebound, distribute, and take the scraps for scoring.
- Speaking of Bynum and his health, let's just all pretend Amare Stoudamire is the rule instead of the norm when it comes to recovering from microfracture surgery. Let's just assume that Bynum takes little to no time to get in game shape, get back to 100%, and take his rightful place among the great Laker centers of all time. Easy peasy Japanesy.

If you assume all of those things are going to happen, then hey, start printing those Lakers championship T-shirts right now. But what you know what they say when you assume...Like the Celtics, I'm not saying they're going to be awful. They'll be one of the best 5 teams in the league- just not one of the final 2 standing.

Three Teams Who Made Some Changes and THINK They're Championship Contenders. Think Again
Houston, Toronto, Philly
The Rockets traded for a crazy person in Ron Artest and are teaming him up with two all-stars who cannot and will not stay healthy. Running the show will be Rafer Alston. Championship? Good luck with that. Toronto fans are just giddy because they traded for Jermaine O'Neal, who hasn't played in 70 games in a season in 5 years, and who hasn't put up all-star numbers in three. Oh, and he's also coming off a major injury. But on the bright side, he's 30, which means he's on the decline and will probably never again average the 20 and 7 of prime. Oh those Raptors fans can so worked up over nothing! Speaking of major injuries, the Sixers signed Elton Brand to a ginourmous deal through the year 2037 after playing just 8 games last season because of a ruptured achilles tendon. He's also been to the playoffs a grand total of one time in his entire career, yet this is who Philly fans are saying is going to take them to the promised land? If Phillies fans don't burn the city to the ground in the riot- er World Series celebration (assuming they ever finish the game!!!), maybe folks will come to their senses.

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
The Clippers and Warriors signed each other's free agent. Still, neither one of them are going to the playoffs. Awesome.

The More Things Stay the Same...the More Things Stay the Same
The Washington Wizards have won 42 games each of the last three seasons with the core of Gilbert Arenas, Antwan Jamison, and Caron Butler. Agent Zero and Jamison were both free agents this past summer. Did the Wiz try to trade these guys since everybody but the Grizz, Clippers and Bobcats were capped out, meaning there wasn't really anybody who could sign them to big deals? Nope, they went ahead and resigned both to huge dollars. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the Wiz won't win more than 42 this year either. Just a hunch. In Detwah, Joe Dumars promised to blow up his Pistons squad to retool for another run at a championship. Moves Joe D made in the offseason- signing uber-bust Kwame Brown. Wow Joe, don't go overboard with all of that wheeling and dealing!

And the Finalists Will Be...
New Orleans vs Cleveland. Two cities that could really, really use a championship. Two of the best players in the NBA (maybe THE two best? Discuss, dicuss...) in Bronbron and CP3. Two teams that were close to getting to the Finals last year, and are only getting better. New Orleans grabbed Boston's "glue guy" in James Posey, who will do all the extras he did for Boston and Miami. Cleveland finally landed a point guard that can compliment The Global Icon, can play some D, and can hit the outside shot. Not only that, but they have the sizeable expiring contract of Wally Szcerbiak to deal before the deadline for another good player or two.

The Hornets will finish with the West's best record, the Cavs probably second in the East, but these will be your finalists, with Cleveland winning a title that might just be enough to convince Lebron to stay. Maybe.

Getting the Band Back Together

2008-10-01T14:05:00.003-07:00

So Jer, my old blogging partner in crime, offered me a chance to help with his Gopher Football blog. He's going to let me write about the Big 10, and we're going to do weekly podcasts and all that good stuff, so I'm pretty pumped. So if you're a football fan, check it out.

As for this here space, well, I'm not sure. I've been looking for a focus for awhile, since, as you can tell, I've had trouble posting with regularity. I still may do the odd NBA or non-college post something here, but otherwise it'll be focusing on the Gophs and the Big 10 and college football. Thanks for reading.

Open Mouth, Insert Foot

2008-09-26T06:39:00.002-07:00

Crack egg on forehead, apply directly to face.

I told you the USC Trojans were the best team in college football. I told you USC had a defense that wasn’t just the best of the this season, but maybe any season this century. I told you USC was so good, they’d probably win the NFC West. I told you these things because I believed them.

So how foolish do I feel waking up this morning to find out USC went up to Corvallis, last night and lost to the Oregon State Beavers 27-21? AGAIN! After all the talk this week from Trojans coach Pete Carroll and the rest of this team about how they were taking the Beavers seriously, and had revenge on their minds for their shocking upset loss out there in 2006, USC went out on a Thursday night and laid a giant egg. They might as well have pooped in my refrigerator. I’m shocked not because they lost to Oregon State, but because they lost to Oregon State AGAIN! How can you make the same mistake twice?!? It’d be one thing to get beat by Washington State or Arizona, but how do you lose in to the Beavers the exact same way you lost to them two years ago?!?!

At any rate, this is bad news not only for USC and the Pac 10, but also for Ohio State and the Big 11. USC's title hopes are shot, and if the Big 10 wants a rep in the BCS Championship game, they're going to have to hope either Penn State or Wisconsin runs the table. Right now, we're looking at an SEC/Big 12 showdown with 5 undefeated teams (Oklahoma, Georgia, Mizzuruh, Florida and LSU) all in contention for 2 spots. As you no doubt know, take what I say with a gigantic grain of salt, but I think we'll see- at best- two one loss teams in the national title game, and that the age of parity is officially upon us.

**********

I also can't leave out the Minnesota Twins, the Little Engine That Could, the team nobody believed in. Wow what a comeback win last 7-6 in extras over the White Sox! I don't get cable at the moment, so I watched the 8th, 9th, and 10th innings on Gamecast, which is a really stressful and frustrating way to "watch" or follow a game, but I'm so glad I had it. I was keeping tabs on the game at first, then when the Sox went up 6-1 and The Office season premiere started (freaking brilliant, although is it me or has Dwight's character fallen off a bit? There weren't as many laugh-out-loud Dwight moments as usual- well except where he drops Phylis off in the middle of nowhere to make her walk back and lose weight. Anywho, good to see that while NBC is hell bent to ruin their best shows- first Friday Night Lights and now Heroes oh and I'm really worried about Life, which was a great show last year but is already getting a little too much hype from the Peacock- The Office remains the best sitcom on TV) I forgot about the game until almost 10. By the time I got Gamecast back up it was the 8th inning and Gomez had just knocked in a run to make it 6-5. The Span triple to tie it, some vintage Joe Nathan, and then in the 10th Alexei Casillas singled in the king Piranha himself, Little Nicky Punto, for the game winner.

The Twins, who regained sole possession of first place for the first time since late August, now have to NOT "Pull a USC" this weekend as they play 3 with Kansas City. Two out of three should be enough, as the Sox have to play the surging Cleveland Indians (by the way, let's be glad the season isn't any longer, because since the All-star break the Tribe are 38-27, and would be overtaking both the Twinks and Pale Hose with another couple of weeks), and a sweep for Chicago, especially with the way they've played of late, seems unlikely.

While I don't love the Twins chances against either Boston or Tampa in the playoffs, I didn't love their chances of even finishing .500 this year. And as I proved with all of my USC chatter, what do I know? Go Twins!

The Top 5...

2008-09-23T21:08:00.002-07:00

...NFL Teams
1. Dallas (3-0)
2. Philadelphia (2-1)
3. New York Giants (3-0)
4. Green Bay Packers (2-1)
5. Um....?

...AFC
1. Pittsburgh (2-1)
2. Denver (3-0)
3. Buffalo (3-0)
4. Tennessee (3-0)
5. Jacksonville/Indy/San Diego (1-2)

...Worst NFL Teams
1. St Louis
2. Kansas City
3. Detroit
4. Oakland
5. Cincinnati/Cleveland (Good times for football in Ohio right now)

...Best College Teams Not Named USC
1. Georgia
2. Oklahoma
3. Mizzuruh
4. Florida
5. LSU
(By the way, I've read 3 different articles this week on what would happen if USC and the winners of the Big 12 AND SEC all run the table. People, it's SEPTEMBER! If we have said scenario in November, THEN we can start talking about that. And for the record, I don't think we'll have an undefeated school in either of those conferences, but thanks for asking)

...Big 10 Teams
1. Ohio State (It's like they lost to Southern Utah, not Southern California. Nobody will beat the Trojans this year. Nobody. And with the Buckeyes getting Beanie Wells back AND figuring out that maybe their offense is better with Pryor at QB, they're still the best team in the Big 10, and Penn State is the only team with a chance to knock them off)
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan State (at this rate Javon Ringer will have like 7,458 carries this year, and if he lives through it, the Sparties will be a tough out)
5. Illinois
5a. MINNESOTA!!!!!!!!!! (hey come on it's the last time this year we'll get to talk about them being undefeated. Lets just enjoy it)
(Ok admit it: it's weird to rank the top 5 Big 10 teams and not see Michigan there- and feel like they're not being slighted in the least)

...Conferences after the SEC and Big 12
1. Big 10
2. USC- I mean the Pac 10
3. ACC (only a month until basketball season!)
4. Mountain West
5. Big East (only a month until basketball season!)

...Potential BCS Busters
1. South Florida- wait what? They're in a BCS Conference? Really? THis is awkward.
2. Boise State (a MUCH easier schedule than BYU the rest of the way)
3. BYU
4. Utah
5. TCU

...NFL QB's not Named (Tom) Brady or Peyton (Manning)
1. Drew Brees, Saints
2. Tony Romo, Cowboys
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
4. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
5. Jay Cutler, Broncos (honestly, how can the Vikings have gone through like 58 different quarterbacks in my lifetime while the Broncos go from Elway to Cutler, and the Pack from Favre to Rodgers? Explain how that's fair!)

...NFL RUNNING BACKS
1. LT, Charge
2. AD, Purple
3. Brian Westbrook (BW?), Iggles
4. Marion Barber III, Cowboys
5. Steven Jackson, Rams

...NFL WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Randy Moss, Pats
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
3. Torry Holt, Rams
4. Calvin Johnson, Lions
5. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

...Most Annoying things about the new season of Heroes (possible spoilers)
1. The whole Nikki/Jessica character who is now apparently Tracy? (played by Ali Larter, whose career highlights include the whipped cream bikini in Varsity Blues and...yup that's about it. But hey let's feature her more on the show) So we go from a useless character with no powers to a useless character with a new power? Not a good trade off.
2. On the bright side, Tracy is just as annoying and slutty as Nikki/Jessica
3. The annoying Hispanic chick? Still annoying.
4. Saresh turning into a Manwhore.
5. The guy who plays Peter Patrelli is still a horrible actor.

TJack Out, Frerotte In- Start Printing those Championship T-Shirts!!

2008-09-17T18:48:00.002-07:00

Gus Frerotte has replaced Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB for the Minnesota Vikings. After an 0-2 start, it looks like we've found the scape goat for why coach Brad Childress' "kick ass" offense hasn't kicked any ass this season (well through the air. On the ground Adrian Peterson has been a force of nature.) All aboard the bandwagon Vikes fans, because it's next stop Super Bowl! The Super Bowl parade will be held on Washington Avenue, then will take a left down the newly renamed "Gus Frerotte Way". After that we'll go streaking up through the quad and to the gymnasium.

In an email today to a group of extraordinary gentlemen, my buddy Kyle summed up the QB switch better than I could have:

"I can't say I'll get all that much more optimistic until our 'kick @ss offense' starts opening things up a bit... As bad as Jackson's interception looked against Green Bay, the reality is he didn't manage the game all that poorly, and you can't point to any other throws that were horrible... The only receiver who ever gets separation is Sidney Rice (Bernard Berrian who???) but we never throw downfield (besides go routes) so it doesn't make any difference anyway... This is just a guess, but I'm thinking this change will simply end up accentuating that the system is the problem... Don't get me wrong, T-Jack is no Johnny Unitas, but he's certainly not Spregeon Wynn either."

Yup I couldn't agree more. Has Jackson been good? Absolutely not. It's a small sample size, but in his first two games his QB rating of 64.8 is 26th in the NFL (you know who's 32nd? Carson Palmer. Yikes), and his yardage, TD's and yards per attempt are all in the same range. If you want to get all fancy and technical and "mathy" up in this piece, the boys at footballoutsiders have two stats that, IF (and it's a big if) I can get my head around it and explain it right, really tell the story of how ineffective Jackson, and perhaps the offense, has been.

DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. TJack's DYAR rating is a -41, which means he's been 41 yards worse than a replacement level QB (A replacement level QB would be about the equivalent of Gus Frerotte. Give or take). He ranked 26th in the league.

Another very cools statistic is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (explained really well here What's cool about this stat is it's not just looking at total yards gained, it's the VALUE of quality of those yards. Like yards gained that go for a touchdown, or gain a first down, get more emphasis than those that don't. Brad Johnson in Chilly's "KAO" was infamous for throwing for 4 yards on a 3rd and 7. Sure, he got the completion and some yards out of it, which helped his QB rating and numbers, BUT HE DIDN"T GET THE FREAKING FIRST DOWN!!!!!! Anyway, this stat helps rate which players get the most VALUE PER PLAY. Pretty freaking cool). So TJack's DVOA is -20.9 (meaning he does not add much value to any play he's involved in. Which could be a problem for a quarterback). He also ranked- you guessed it- 26th in the NFL in this stat.

So three different metrics are telling us Tavaris Jackson is at best the 26th best quarterback in the league, and for a team with Super Bowl aspirations this is already 0-2, that's just not good enough. Yet I've wondered out loud, as Kyle says there, whether the problems this season and last were all Jackson, or if the scheme was to blame too. Childress' kick @ss offense has been one of the lowest rated passing offenses whether it was Jackson or Brad Johnson running the show. Chilly's offense made more throws in the 10 yards and less range than anybody else, and therefore much fewer down field. Hey sure you want to minimize risks, but not taking any is as foolish as taking too many, and Chilly just refuses to open things up.

So is Frerotte the answer? Of course not. Like Kyle, I believe Frerotte will now be asked to make the same 5 yard throws on obvious passing downs that Jackson was, and while his results may be a little better because of his veteran grittiness and experience, the offense isn't going to take off until the man with the mustache starts opening things up.

This QB change is a good thing regardless for Vikings fans: if Frerotte really does make a difference, then the playoffs become a possibility. If he doesn't, and nothing changes, then Childress is canned. I've heard rumors that folks are worried Ziggy may have a Glen Taylor-like attachment to Childress. Not a chance. There's no way an NFL head coach misses the playoffs for 3 straight years and keeps his job. Zero. None. So don't worry about that. If the QB change works, then great but if it doesn't then we get somebody else with some more open philosophies in here next year. And we'll know whether the lack of a passing game in Minnesota has been all Tavaris Jackson's fault, or if Childress should shoulder the blame.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/28584194.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiU9PmP:QiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiU

The Monday Musings

2008-09-15T00:15:00.001-07:00

* Do you know why Los Angeles doesn't need an NFL team? Because they already have a professional football team! USC looked so good Saturday night against an overmatched Ohio State team that you almost start believing they could win the NFC West (they would win more games in the NFL this year than the Rams would. Ok that's not really saying much). If you're not reading Jer's Gopher Football blog then you're an idiot, because you're missing out on some great insight and knowledge. He shared one such pearl of wisdom while we were watching the third quarter. As USC's student section broke into the overrated "OH-VER-RATE-ED" chant Jer mused "That's not fair to Ohio State. They're not overrated because they're not a bad football team. It's just that USC is that much better."

So true. Ohio State has a lot of talent, and a lot of guys who will play on Sunday in the coming years. Sure, their QB Todd Boeckman stinks, and without Beanie Wells the Buckeyes couldn't run the ball with their usual success. But do you really think Beanie would have made up the difference in that ball game? Not a chance. The Buckeyes are a really good team, and despite the loss should still finish in the top 20 in the country, but this Trojan squad is for real. They're absolutely loaded absolutely everywhere, and the real shame of it all is that they won't play a quality opponent again until the National Championship game in February or whenever it's pushed back to this year (I am a biased Pac 10 apologist, but there is no defending the Pac 10 today. They were 3-7 on Saturday and other than SC looked just awful. The Mountain West was 4-0 against them! The Mountain West! The Pac 10 is thankfully still not ACC or Big East bad, but it's USC and a bunch of school girls this year. Too bad). SI.com's Stewart Mandel says this Trojans' team compares favorably with the 2004 squad that won the National Title, and it's easy to see the parallels.

* From a look at the action around the rest of the country, I'm not sure anyone else fares much better against SC than Ohio State did. Certainly nobody else has a defense that good, and offensively, who matches up? Maybe Oklahoma or Mizzou, but that's about it. Right now SC looks about two touchdowns better than anybody else.

* I'm going to show you the stat lines for two QB's from Sunday's games:

Player A: 16-25 165 yds 0 TD's 0 INT's
Player B: 14-24 130 yds 0 TD's 0 INT's

Similar numbers, no? Player A is Patriot Matt Cassell, Player B is Tavaris Jackson. Why oh why do I feel SO much more confident about Cassell than I do about Jackson? Jackson's numbers, really, aren't that bad, but you just knew that late in the game there was no way the Vikings were marching down the field with TJack. Not a chance. And sure enough, when the pressure was on and they needed to move the ball, the Vikings went 3-and-out while the Colts got the points they needed to steal a victory in an ugly football game (well Adrian Peterson wasn't ugly. Wow is he good. Imagine what he could do if the opposing defense actually respected the pass? Maybe next year we'll find out). Jackson seemed to get most of his completions on rollouts. I heard Jeff Dubay of KFAN muse that's because it simplifies things for him by cutting the field in half, which gives him less reads. Makes sense, but if it's true, the Vikings are in even more trouble than we thought. Cassell, as you no doubt heard 479574 times this past week, started his first game since HIGH SCHOOL(!!!!) and yet Pats coach Bill Belichek treated him like a starting quarterback. He let him drop back, make reads, and make throws downfield. This definitely was not the same offense Tom Brady ran, and Belichek certainly wasn't going to take many chances, but watching that game, there were no training wheels for Cassell. He had the green light.

TJack, on the other hand, was starting the 16TH GAME OF HIS PRO CAREER! 16! He's been in the league for three years and has started a full season's worth of games and yet we're rolling him out so he only has to read half the field? Why can't he run the offense? Why can't he read a defense and make throws a normal QB should be able to throw? WHY CAN"T HE MAKE THE SAME PLAYS AS A GUY WHO HADN"T STARTED A GAME SINCE FREAKING HIGH SCHOOL?!?!?!? I would love for Jackson to succeed because then it means the Vikings would succeed. But I don't see it happening. I know Trent Dilfer said a couple of weeks ago that an NFL QB needed 40 starts until he really figured things out, but we're almost halfway to that number, and Jackson not only still has training wheels on, he's riding his freaking big wheel! I hope for one of two things from this season: either a) Chilly and Jackson get it together and the Vikes make the playoffs or b) Jackson continues to suck, and therefore the Vikings continue to suck and so Chilly is fired, Jackson is cut, and we get a new coach and QB in here next year who can actually run an offense. Because this is ridiculous.

* When the Colts get to the Super Bowl, are Vikings fans going to be the only ones who remember how close Indy was to starting 0-2? They had no business winning today, but Peyton got his act together (I've never ever seen him running for life before like he was in the first half. That Vikes pass rush was awesome) in the second half, looked like the Peyton of old, and they eeked out a victory in a tough place to play.

* The Vikings are one of 10 teams to start this season 0-2. According to Don Banks' column on Friday, since since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, only 19 teams have climbed out of an 0-2 hole to make the playoffs. That's about one team a year, and the Minnesota is one of three teams this year with any real shot: the other two are Jacksonville and San Diego. Jacksonville and the Vikes are having offensive problems, but for different reasons (the Jags can't throw, the Vikes can't pass), while both D's have not been as good as advertised. San Diego has lost two heartbreakers to two good teams (how about the gigantic cahones on Mike Shannahan of Denver? Going for 2 and the win instead of the extra point and the tie with 24 seconds left? LOVE IT!), and with the third easiest schedule this year (they get to play Oakland and Kansas City twice each), they will definitely have an easier road than Minnesota or Jacksonville. I'm not even going to mention the Vikes next three games since I've been so negative about them already. Let's just say hosting Carolina, then at Tennessee and at New Orleans doesn't inspire confidence this thing is getting turned around. Whoops guess I just mentioned it.

* In case you're wondering of the other seven 0-2 teams are all but one are dead in the water: Detroit, St Louis, Miami, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Kansas City might as well start planning for draft day because their seasons are essentially over. Seattle is a good team who's had a horrible run of luck and cannot stay healthy. IF they can get any of their top 4 wide receivers back by October, they've still got a chance in the horrible, awful, terrible NFC West.

* Guess the Packers knew what they were doing with Aaron Rodgers, eh? 328 and 3 TD's and the Pack could very well be the best team in the NFC. I know it was Detwah they spanked today, but that was still impressive. Why does Green Bay get all the luck with QB's while the Vikes have a revolving door under center?

* Carolina went 2-0 without wide receiver Steve Smith. Look out.

* You know who could win the AFC East? Not New England. Definitely not the New York Bretts. Buffalo. Buffalo could win the AFC East. What were the Vegas odds on that when the season started? Could you even get odds on that happening? I still don't trust QB Trent Edwards but maybe I should (all of you fantasy football players who need a backup QB should pay attention here): in two games he's completed 70% of his passes for 454 yds 2 TD's and no INT's for a QB rating of 107.7. Yep ol' Trent has now started nine games and already seems to have fully grasped an NFL offense. TJack has started 16 and do a simple 3 step drop and find an open receiver. Just thought I'd point that out.

* Did you see the Rams highlights against the Giants? USC could beat the Rams. I'm not even kidding.

* Stupid Fantasy Football Start of the Week:
Last week I sat Michael Turner in favor of Ricky Williams. This week I started Turner even though I was worried about him going against a really good Tampa D. Who should i have started? Darren McFadden and his 164 yds and a TD, that's who. I just can't win.

Welcome to "I Have No F&*%ing Idea" Week

2008-09-12T08:31:00.004-07:00

It's week 2 in the NFL, and never in my 20 some years of watching football can I remember a week with so many questions about so many teams, and the answer to so many being: "I have no f&%*ing idea!" It's a good thing gambling isn't legal, because if it were, there'd be a LOT of money lost this weekend. You'd be just as likely to win by putting your picks sheet on a dart board and throwing darts over your shoulder to get the results as you would be by actually picking the games. About the only way we're going to get all of these questions answered is by watching the games, but don't you get the feeling this is like a season of Lost, where they answer a few of the questions every week, then give you like 10 more?

Green Bay (-6) at Detwah
Which are there more of in Detroit: car fires or Lions fans? And are the two things related in any way?
The Pack made a statement on Monday night than in the most wide open of wide open seasons, they're going to be a factor. With the injury to Marques Colston in New Orleans, the door just opened for Green Bay to get home field. Did I see "Ewing Theory" potential in this team? Indeed I did. But like picking the Vikes to NOT make the playoffs without mentioning the suspension to Bryant McKinnie (Kris, for the record, McKinnie IS overrated and overpaid, but he's a helluva lot better than Artis Hicks or something called Chase Johnson), I picked the Pack to have a big year without realizing another key point: the Favre Saga not only motivated the team, but it was the best possible thing for Aaron Rodgers. And my girlfriend, who is a huge Pack fan, was the one to point this out.

If Favre would have just stayed retired, there would have been tons of pressure from Cheeseheads on Aaron Rodgers to be The Next Brett Favre. But thanks to Brett just gun slingin' his way through a retirement decision, the Cheeseheads now love Rodgers, embrace him, and support him more than ever before. It went from a "I'd have Brett Favre's children- prove to me why I should have yours" to "I'd have Brett Favre's children but I'd pretend to be angry about it but now I'd definitely have yours too even though you're not as good looking or don't wear Wranglers". Somehow they like Rodgers better now, at least that's what they're telling themselves.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3.5)
Who would be stupid enough to pick the Raiders as a sleeper?
Ok so here's the one question we DO have an answer to, and that idiot is me. Next time I try to pick the most disfunctional franchise in football to be a breakout team, slap me. Twice. Three times even. Enough until I realize how foolish the idea was. Then slap me again for wasting your time. Thanks. By the way, we might have found the first sporting event that I would rather watch the WNBA instead of...ok no, I'd still rather watch this than the WNBA, but this one really made me think about it.

St Louis at NY Giants (-9)
How are the Giants only favored by 9 points?
Honestly, how? Did Vegas not watch the Rams get torched by the Eagles last week? Do they not know Scott Linehan is their coach? Maybe a better question is will Linehan survive until Thanksgiving?

Indianapolis (+2) at Minnesota
Do you believe the Colts are a good team?
Some folks would ask this question of both teams, but we already know the Vikes are in trouble, and I believe are in danger of starting 1-4 (they host Carolina next week- who will have Steve Smith back, then travel to Tennessee and New Orleans. Good luck with that). But the Colts? Sure Manning didn't play at all in the preseason, and they lost some o-linemen to injury and we have no idea if Marvin Harrison has plunged off the "he's done" cliff, but to lose by 16 to the freaking Bears AT HOME?!?!? It defies explanation. The Vikes are a simliar team to Chicago (horrible QB, no receivers, strong running game, strong run D), so perhaps the outcome will be the same, but there's just no way Indy lays an egg two weeks in a row. Which is probably why they will, but again, what's the catch phrase for the day? You got it- I have no %*^&ing idea! And neither does anybody else.

Tennessee (-1) at Cincinnati
Are either of these teams any good?
The Teetahns have all the looks of the Bears/Ravens model of strong running game and ridiculously good defense, but what about their QB? I think Kerry Collins is an upgrade, but we won't know it until Sunday. And the Bungles? Is Carson Palmer a shell of his former self? Will all of Chad Johnson's shenanigans motivate him or the rest of his team? Do they have a defense? Is Marvin Lewis' house on the market?

New Orleans (-3) at Washington
Will the Saints still pile up the points without Colston? Can Reggie Bush have two good games in a row? Will Jason Campbell ever figure it out? Remember Lavar Arrington? How did he never make it? Why do the Skinnies always wear white at home?

Chicago at Carolina (even)
Hahaha seriously the biggest "I have no %*^&ing idea!" is when Vegas says "pick 'em." If people who get paid to have a clue don't have a clue, then how can anybody else? The Bears and Colts were the two biggest of surprises and now the two biggest question marks heading into week 2. Was the Sunday nighter an abberition or a true indicator of what both teams will do? It just seems unfathomable that any team with Kyle Orton at QB and whose two "leading" receivers last week each had 2 catches- And both were tight ends!!!!- is 16 points better than the Colts on the road. Carolina is another one of those teams that just have so many questions I don't even know where to start. Insert catch phrase of the day.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (even)
see previous paragraph

San Diego at Denver (even)
ditto

Atlanta (+3) at Tampa Bay
Of course you'd take the points against Brian Griese, right? RIGHT?
Usually, until you remember the Falcons are starting a rookie QB. And also that it's the Falcons. You're on your own here.

New England (+1) at New York Bretts
Which team is more overhyped? Has there been a more overhyped and overrated "rivalry" than this one?
Not to rain on the parade of all of those fighting for spots on the Jets bandwagon, but just thought I'd point out that to beat Miami last week the Jets needed a hail-mary-throw-it-up-for-grabs-just-wingin-it-gunslingin-having-fun-i-love-football-TD pass from everyone's favorite Wrangler wearin' QB AND a last minute defensive stand to keep Chad Pennington's wounded ducks out of the endzone. Just sayin'. As for the Patriots, well, if you're anything like me you've heard way, way, way, WAY too much about them so I'll spare you, but let's just say they've got a few questions of their own to answer this week.

Miami at Arizona (-4.5)
Is Arizona good enough to win the NFC West?
Maybe a better way of saying it is are they "not bad enough"? You can't make enough jokes about the sad state of the NFC West, but let me just say that of the many reasons I'm glad to be living back in Minnesota, one of them is definitely that I don't have to watch the Seahawks every Sunday. Good gracious.

San Francisco at Seattle (-3)
Which would you rather watch: this game or Chiefs/Raiders?
Kind of like having to choose between gouging your eye out with a stick or jamming a pen into your ear. Jer would probably take option c) which is always death by killer bees.

Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cleveland
There's no way Cleveland can win this game, right? RIGHT?
If the Steelers lose this game, then I officially give up. The Browns looked lost on offense last week, while Pittsburgh absolutely steamrolled a better-than-you-think Texans club. This looks to be the only slam dunk of the week, which in this season, probably means it won't be.

MONDAY NIGHTERS
Not that there's ever anything good about a hurricane, but if there were, it would be that we get two Monday nighter's this week on two different channels because of it.

Baltimore (+3.5) at Houston
Is this the most obvious pick of the week?
Vegas might not have much confidence in the Ravens, but I certainly do. Still, a ton of factors and questions at work here, not the least of which is the Texans playing for their fanbase which had to endure a hurricane. Don't ever underestimate that one.

Philly (-3) at Dallas
When was the last time the Monday night game was actually the best game of the week?
Seriously, this is the first time in I don't know when. You want questions? Are the Eagles for real? Could Donovan McNabb throw for 300 yards with five Cowboy fans lining up for him at receiver? Did I overpay for DeSean Jackson in my auction league waiver wire this week? Do I care because it was worth it to get him? Are the Cowboys really the NFL's best team? Is there a more annoying celebrity than Jessica Simpson? Well other than Tom Cruise? Or Avril Lavigne? How angry is Terrell Owens that Chad Johnson is a worse receiver yet getting more attention? When does he change his name to Terrell "I Need Me Some Me"? Could it not happen soon enough?

Answers to these questions and more this weekend.

Muse on Sports News

2008-09-11T08:10:00.006-07:00

Sure, "Muse on News" sounds better, but you don't come here for non-sports opinions, so I try to stay away from it.

- You're probably sick of the Vince Young story already, as Vince not only is hurt physically for the next month, but he's also hurt emotionally (Jer pointed me to Donald Miller's blog- he's the author of the book Blue Like Jazz. He posted about Vince Young, which is one of the rare positive and supportive takes I've seen out there. Also, check out his "email exchange" with Barack Obama. Even the conservatives will think it's funny). Just a weird and sad story, with Vince going AWOL for a while and his family being so concerned about his emotional well being that they called the cops. Now Vince says he might retire and doesn't find football fun anymore.

The psych major in me believes Young's strange behavior and statements is because this is the first time in his life he's REALLY had to work at something. Sure, he's always worked hard at football, but until he got to the NFL, it always came easy, and people generally are more willing to work hard at something when it's fun and comes naturally to you. Vince dominated high school, "struggled" a bit while playing as a freshman at one of the most prestigious football factories in America at Texas, and then had a meteoric rise to stardom his next three seasons, where he became one of the greatest college players ever. Even his first NFL season, while his passing numbers were awful, his team still won and he was a big reason why. But since his rookie year, as the NFL always does, they adjust to you and make you find new ways to succeed. Unfortunately for Vince, once the league figured out to take away his running lanes and make him throw, he couldn't adjust. VY is exceptional as a playmaker and scrambler, and that had always been enough for him to succeed, so he never learned to throw as well as he should have. So now he's in the NFL, he's really struggling, and this is how he reacts. This could lead me off on a couple of tangents about how the super-star pampered high school athletes, or how the spread offense in college is killing the quarterback position in the pros, but I'll save those for another day.

- Rick Reilly (it still seems weird to read him at ESPN instead of Sports Illustrated) writes an entertaining article about who he believes the most popular team is in each city that has at least two pro franchises. He leaves quite a few out including the Milwaukee/Green Bay area (the top 10 teams in Wisconsin would be 1-5 Packers 6. Brewers 7. Scony football 8. Scony basketball 9. Marquette basketball 10. Badger hockey. The Milwaukee Bucks would be somewhere in the 130's between LaCrosse track and the Appleton high school swim team), New Orleans (since we're including college, LSU is substantially more popular than the Saints or Hornets), Oakland (while the Warriors fan base might be the most diehard in all of professional sports, I still think the Raiders are the most popular team in Oakland), Memphis/Nashville (the Vols by a country mile. Two country miles even. Another place that should not have professional sports, because really, what's the point?), and San Diego (Ron Burgandy IS the most popular sport in San Diego. If surfing was a category that'd be #2. Otherwise, probably the Chargers over The Fathers).

Of the cities he actually mentioned, he had most of them right, but here were a few I either disagreed with or just had a sarcastic comment to make:

Cleveland (Reilly chose the Browns)- I would say Ohio State is even bigger. I'm not from Ohio, but from everything I've heard and read, nobody is bigger in Cleveland or the rest of the state than the Buckeyes, especially right now.

Detroit (Red Wings)- Not only is this the only city where hockey was listed as #1, I'd venture it's the only American city where hockey is even close to #1. Go ahead, look down that list and tell me where an NHL team would even be in the top 3. You can't find it because it's not there. And don't say the Minnesota Wild either- we'll leave the Twin Cities for last. Anyway, I think Michigan Wolverines football (even despite how bad they'll be this year) is more popular than the Red Wings or Pistons or Tigers. Yep, Detwah IS Hockeytown, but they had empty seats all season, including into the playoffs- and this was the team who eventually won the Cup! Michigan, on the other hand, continually sells out almost 112,000 seats every home game every single season.

Houston- Reilly didn't choose here, and I don't blame him, because I have no idea who the choice would be either. The Rockets? During the Hakeem era, sure, but now? The Astros do well but not that well, and the Texans seem to still be too new to bump the other two. I know Texas A&M is very popular there, as is, of course, the Texas Longhorns, but honestly, I have no idea. Could very well be the Dallas Cowboys. Seriously.

Miami (Dolphins)- Just wanted to send out a hardy congratulations to the "fans" in Miami for winning the title of "Worst Sports Fans in America"!! Really, it's quite an accomplishment to beat out places like Atlanta, Phoenix, and Charlotte. While those places do a horrible job supporting their pro teams (except Phoenix with the Suns), at least they get behind a college program (Georgia football and UNC and Duke basketball). Reilly lists the Dolphins as the most popular team, and I don't disagree with it, but here's why Miami fans are the worst: THEY COULDN'T EVEN SELL OUT THEIR HOME OPENER! Against the New York Bretts even! What the hell is that?!?!? And yet Reilly's right, because they only watch the Heat when they're on a title run, the St Paul Saints get more people out to games than the Marlins do (I'm not even exaggerating), and I won't bother mentioning the Panthers (they get a mulligan because a) everyone but Gary Bettman knows Miami is not a hockey market and b) even if they were, their arena is 40 MILES outside of Miami in a strip mall in the middle of nowhere. Just an awesome job all the way around by Bettman). "The U?" Well the Miami Hurricanes football team, even in the best of times, had trouble selling out games. Congrats Miami, you have the worst fans in America!

New York (Yankees)- Probably the most popular and famous team on the planet, so I don't argue with this, but I will say I think the Knicks are a closer second than most people realize. That really is a basketball town, it's just they've been awful for a decade and won't be good anytime soon. A real shame.

Philadelphia (Phillies)- No way. I want the good and tortured sports fans of Philly to take a vote on this right now, because there is no way I believe a Phillies World Series victory would be more important than an Eagles Super Bowl win. No way. No how.

Seattle (Seahawks)- No city is going through a tougher time in sports than the city of Seattle. The Sonics, who they fully supported for 41 $^Q%&$ING YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, were moved to Oklahoma because the commissioner is an a**hole. The Mariners, once the pride of the city, spent $120 million this year to finish with the second worst record in baseball. It's also their fourth losing season in the last five, and unless they can fire the owners, it's not getting better anytime soon. Husky football, which until this decade had been by far the most popular team, is in shambles (about to start 0-3 after Oklahoma roughs them up this weekend), and the Seahawks, after five straight division titles, look to be in trouble as they're quite literally pulling guys off the street to play receiver. All the latte's and grunge music in the world can't cheer up the folks in the Pacific Northwest right now.

Finally, we have Minneapolis/St Paul. The Vikings are obviously king of this town. When they sign a backup receiver in June it's front-page news. I'm interested in what you think the rest of the order looks like. Here's my take:

2. Twins- if they can find a 3B, a SS, and an owner willing to spend money, they could overtake the Vikes for #1, especially with the new stadium coming soon.

3. Gopher hockey- it's a cult. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

4. Gopher basketball/Wild hockey: I just can't choose. I know the Wild have an incredible sell-out streak going, but read the dailies or turn on sports radio, and you rarely read or hear about the Wild. They're always buried in the sports section. Gopher basketball, despite some big time struggles lately, still has an incredibly passionate and far-reaching fan base.

6. Gopher football
7. St Paul Saints
8. Minnesota Thunder
13. St Cloud St hockey
19. Minnetonka Skippers
101. Ethan and Courtney's rec league hockey team.
220. Minnesota Lynx
221. Minnesota Timberwolves

College Questions

2008-09-10T08:15:00.004-07:00

Do you have questions about some college football teams heading into the third weekend? Hey me too!

#1 USC: How much do they beat Ohio State by this weekend?
For the record, the Buckeyes were looking past Ohio U last week, and their feeble 26-16 win AT HOME against the Bobcats is not indicitive of their true talent level. They played poorly and now have to listen to the media and bloggers tell them how terrible they are all week long. So I don't doubt Ohio State will be fired up to play USC at the Mausoleum Saturday night: I just don't think it's going to matter much. USC is currently 10.5 point favorites in Vegas, and I think they'll be at least 2 TD's better when the game is over. It's not just that the Trojans are a complete football team, it's that Ohio State has not shown they can pressure the QB enough (just 3 sacks in 2 games so far) to make things tough on Marc Sanchez. We shall see, and I hope it's a great game, but I think the Men of Troy manhandle Ohio State, and blow things wide open in the Big 10 (obviously this isn't a conference game, but starting Sunday you'll hear a LOT of talk about how Penn State and Wisconsin are as good or better than the Buckeyes).

# 2 Georgia: Will QB Matt Stafford be the #1 pick in April's NFL draft?
Not a lot of questions about Georgia's team right now, none that will get answered against an overrated South Carolina team anyway. So with the dearth of awful quarterbacking in the league right now, as well as zero quality senior QB's in college AND whispers that Florida's Tim Tebow might want to return for his senior season, Stafford has been handed the #1 QB spot on a platter. While he's never going to get the opportunity to throw as much as say Sam Bradford at Oklahoma or Sanchez at SC, Stafford just needs to be make plays when he has to and win some big games. Hey, it worked for Jamarcus Russell at LSU a few years ago, so there's no reason to think Stafford can't do the same.

#4 Florida: Just what do the Gators have to do to find a running back?
Yes they handled Miami 26-3, but the offense looked less than stellar, and in bad news for Gator fans, it looks like Tebow could once again be the team's best running back. Their second leading rusher? Receiver Percy Harvin. Sure, Heisman Tim is built like a defensive end, but all that pounding is to going to make an injury much more likely, and another shot at a national championship that much less. If the Gators want to play for the title or a BCS bowl, they can't have their QB and best WR lead the team in rushing.

#5 Ohio State: Were the Buckeyes hiding Terrelle Pryor last week?
Yep, they were. While I don't have evidence of this, I believe the Buckeyes have big plans for their much-hyped freshman QB. After lighting up poor Youngstown State in their first game, Pryor was 0-2 passing with just 5 carries for 37 yards. Seems fishy to me that a kid as good as Pryor is who can cause the matchup problems he does would be used so little. My conclusion is even the Ohio State coaches were on cruise control in their close call against Ohio, wanting to show USC as little as possible knowing the Trojans had two weeks off to prepare for the game. Look for Pryor to be a big part of the Bucks' plans, especially since starter Todd Boeckman has been awful against good teams dating back to last year (the NCAA uses a different QB rating system than the NFL. In the NFL, a 75-80 rating is ok. In college, it's not. In the last four games of the season, Ohio State played Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and then LSU in the title game. Boeckman was solid against Bucky Badger throwing for just 166 yds and 2 TD's for a QB rating of 101.2 But in his last three games he had ratings of 37.9, 30.9, and 77.1. Ouch. Doesn't inspire much confidence, and only gives more credence for unleashing Pryor on USC this Saturday).

#3 Oklahoma #6 Mizuruh #8 Texas: What in the name of the triple option is going on in the Big 12?
Not so long ago, the Big 12 (and dating back to the days of the Big 8 and Southwest Conference) teams in the southwest were known for running the football, running the football, and running the football. The Sooners, Longhorns and Huskers dominated the landscape running the ball at any and all times. Well with the spread of The Spread, it's not just the little guys throwing the football anymore. Oklahoma, Mizuruh and Texas are three legit national title contenders, and all three are just killing people through the air. Just last Saturday Bradford threw for 395 yds and 5 TD's, Chase Daniel put up 245 and 3 (on 16 of 17 passing!!!), and Colt McCoy, who is putting up the kind of numbers Horns fans expected of him last year, merely threw for 282 yds and 4 scores. You know, no big deal. The times, they are a changin', and for these three, it looks to be for the better.

#10 Wisconsin #17 Penn State: Fine I'll ask: Is one of these teams the best in the Big 10 this year?
Too soon to tell. A cop out answer? Probably, but neither side has been truly tested. We can say that both have been very impressive thus far, and Scony at least has a chance to prove something as they travel to #21 Fresno State this weekend. My biggest question for them is can they throw enough to win? Playing 2 cupcakes so far Bucky has rolled for 562 yds rushing and 10 TD's at 5.5 yards per carry (The Wisconsin Winnebago PJ Hill has racked up 267 and 4 all by himself) while throwing for just 404 yards and two touchdowns. I'm not advocating for the Badgers to go four wide and throw all day, but against good teams, like Fresno State this Saturday, and teams in the Big 10, they're not going to be able to just lineup and run all day. Or will they? QB Allen Evridge (who's been very efficient so far) doesn't have to put up Big 12 passing numbers, but just has to make plays when needed to keep eight or nine guys from loading up at the line of scrimmage.

Penn State, on the other hand, has made a switch to what they call The Spread HD: well so far so good. They've destroyed 1-AA Coastal Carolina and the vastly overrated Oregon State Beavers in their first two games, and while they're not as pass-heavy as the aforementioned Big 12 teams, they're getting an offensive balance with QB Daryll Clark that they haven't had since Michael Robinson was lining up under center. We won't find out much more about the Nittany Lions in the next two weeks as they face two of the worst 1-A teams in the land in Syracuse and Temple, but when they host Illinois in prime time Sept 27th, we should have a lot to talk about.

Darth Vader vs. Lord Sauron: Which Most Hated Program is in worse shape?
Tune into NBC this Saturday to find out!! Probably not the headline The Notre Dame Network had hoped for as Michigan visits the Irish, but about the only reason to tune into this one is for the car crash turkey-necking appeal. 1-0 Notre Dame and the um, "smug" Charlie Weis (there's a much more descriptive and accurate word that rhymes with bassbowl that I can't use on a family site such as this) square off against 1-1 Michigan and their new head coach Rich Rodriguez. Both teams were lucky to get the victories they did last week, and the winner in this one will be a "Common Man Dan Cole" Special: the best of the lousiest and the lousiest of the best. The Wolverines do not have a quarterback to run Rodriguez's spread system and rank 117 in total offense. The Irish have Uber recruit Jimmy Clausen as the perfect QB to run Weis' "genius" system, and yet Notre Dame is 83rd in total offense and just 60th passing. Defensively, they're not very good either. This won't be much of a game, and I'm not sad I'll miss it, but it's still compelling in a "watching a train wreck" sort of way. Who wins? Everybody who hates these two schools.

The Monday Musings

2008-09-08T13:54:00.000-07:00

...Are you ready to live in a world where the Chicago Bears are two touchdowns better than the Indianapolis Colts? ON THE ROAD? For me, there were very few surprises yesterday (the Falcons running all over the Lions was certainly one of them), but this one was a shocker. Are the Colts worse than we thought? The Bears are certainly better, but when I had them pegged for the league's worst record, and most others thought they would be last in the NFC, there was nowhere to go but up. I'm still not sure how the Bears kept getting first downs when you know Kyle Orton cannot and will not beat you, especially when the Colts have Bob Sanders, one of the best run defenders and difference-maker safeties in the league. Offensively, Colts weren't bad, they just couldn't score, or run the football. Still a LONG way to go here, but interesting to see whether this was just a blip for the Colts or a sign of things to come.

...Are you ready to live in a world where the New England Patriots are mere mortals? Tom Brady's really done for the year, the Patriots, at least to me, become average at best. Yes they have offensive talent around new QB Matt Cassell, but Brady is what made that offense go. And defensively, they're good but not great. Cassell, as I'm sure you've already seen or read, hasn't started a football game since high school (he got stuck behind both Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC), so thinking the 7th round pick can lead the Pats back to the playoffs, let alone a Super Bowl, is a stretch right now.

...If Brady really is done, this season will be very wide open. With the performances Sunday of the Colts, Chargers, and Jags, we may not have a dominant team in the AFC (well ok maybe the Steelers. Maybe. And yes the Texans team they routed 38-17 was the same one I picked to make the playoffs. I may regret that one). Some people may be excited for a playoff race where every team's in it until week 17 and the best record is 10 wins, but I am not one of those people.

...Seriously, who are the five best teams right now? In his weekly MMQB column, Peter King has Dallas, Pittsburgh, The GMen, Jacksonville and Philly as his top 5. I predicted Dallas to have the NFC's best record, and after watching them manhandle Cleveland, I feel confident with that one (also the Marion Barber/Felix Jones combo is downright scary). With Brady's injury they now have the league's best offense, and the defense should be good enough. Pittsburgh would also be my #2, but after that? Really who is there from yesterday? Philly beat a crappy Rams squad, Jacksonville LOST to Tennessee (who could be without Vince Young for four weeks. Don't tell fans of the Black Brett Favre, but that's a good thing for the Teetahns), and the Giants looked ok against a Redskins team that I have no idea about right now (and anybody who says they have a good read on the Skinnies is lying. Did you watch their Thursday nighter? They could win 10 games, or 4. Neither would surprise me). Because I'm so bullish on the Saints, I'm going to keep banging you over the head with the idea that they're good, and considering they beat a good Tampa team with Drew Brees throwing for 343 on a really good defense, you should start believing me. Just trust me, start singing the praises of the Saints now, and you'll look like a genius around the office in no time. And you can pretend like it's your idea.

...I suppose when I ask you who the top 5 teams are that I should give you a top 5, but I can really only come up with 3: Dallas, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. Philly would be fourth. I have absolutely no idea who the fifth team would be. Just for fun, let's put Atlanta.

...You know it's fall when the air gets cooler, the leaves start changing colors, and the Detroit Lions get blown out in their opener. This was season #58 and counting where there were some rumblings in the media to "watch out, this could be the year for Detroit!" And right on cue, the Lions stunk. It's good to know that 50 years from now I might finally have an HDTV, Detwah will suck, and Brett Favre will still be retiring and unretiring.

...I've already read one article talking about "trying to bringing Pats fans back from the ledge." Gee you're right. I mean, they've been through so much! Besides the Super Bowl loss which, as a Vikings fan I'm plenty used to, not to mention their 2 previous Super Bowl victories, this just has to be hard for the Patriots. Can't they catch a break here? They can't even turn to their beloved Red Sox, who will probably ONLY be a wild card before going onto win the World Series. Let's all take a moment and remember our poor Boston sports fans. With your support, hopefully we can pull them through.

...You know what's a hard decision? Choosing your fantasy football lineup every week. I know, I know, nobody wants to hear about my fantasy football team, just like I don't want to hear about yours. But seriously, you want to hear about this because yesterday, right before leaving for church, I decided I wasn't confident starting Michael Turner of the Falcons against Detwah. Why? Um...there's a reason there somewhere. I ended up thinking Ricky Williams would be a better idea. I swear to you I am not and have not been smoking any of Ricky's herbal medicinal stimulants. So I made the switch, only to be sitting at Keyes downtown with Kristy watching Turner destroy the Lions while Ricky kept running in the line of scrimmage.

...You know what's not a hard decision? Choosing what I'm going to eat when I go to Chipotle. Like Sunday, and each and every time I go to Chipotle, I ended up having to choose between a chicken burrito, a chicken burrito, or maybe, just maybe, a chicken burrito. And you know what? I chose a chicken burrito. And it was everything I hoped it would be.

...Actually that's not true. There was something severely lacking in my chicken burrito: Chipotle flavored tabasco sauce. When I'm getting a burrito to go, I do not like to unwrap my burrito to put the chipotle tobasco goodness in it because I'm not a burrito-folding professional (I know, you're surprised by that. Well I'm sorry, I'm not.) so I can never get the damn thing folded back into the tinfoil right. I realized after tonight that's just a silly excuse, because it's just not the same without the tobasco sauce. So I'm either going to have to get better at refolding them, or else just start keeping a bottle of the chipotle tobasco in my car. You're right, I should do both just to make sure I never have to eat a chipotle burrito again with that chipotle tobasco sauce.

...I can't even rationally talk about the Vikings game tonight. While I hate the Packers, I'm very worried that the Pack are indeed the fifth best team in the league. If the Falcons and Ravens can win in week 1 with rookie QB's, it's not out of the question for the Packers to win, and keep winning, while Aaron Rodgers figures things out. Let's hope I'm wrong, let's hope Rodgers is awful and the Vikes defense wreaks havoc, and Tavaris Jackson completes a couple of passes not only to the right team, but further than five yards down field. Preparing for the worst, and hoping for the best: welcome to the Minnesota Vikings 2008!

I Hate Preseason: College Preseason, That Is

2008-09-05T06:53:00.003-07:00

I've heard plenty of complaints about the NFL preseason being too long, which it absolutely is. Four games is two too many, especially if you're a fan paying full price for the two home games. But what about college? This whole 12th game thing stinks, because nobody is using that 12th game to play anybody good. Everyone in the Top 25, with perhaps the exception of the Pac 10 (the only BCS conference who sacrificed a cupcake game to add a ninth conference game so they could have a true Pac 10 Champ. Also, nobody schedules tougher- more of necessity but still- than the Pac 10. But I digress), uses it to pay a 1-AA school to come get the crap kicked out of them so the Top 25 school can make more money- and charge their fans full price (or if you're Florida State you do this twice!!!). Jer and I use to ride Glen Mason for his ridiculous "Guaranteed 4-0" non-conference schedule, and now not only is new Gopher coach Tim Brewster doing it (I'm well aware that Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic could go bowling this year, but it's still Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic), but so is the rest of the country

(This has apparently also spread from Gopher football to basketball. Have you SEEN Tubby Smith's new schedule? What, was Edina Elementary's 7th grade team busy? What about all the D3 schools in Minnesota? I don't usually agree with Reusse, but he's bang on here. Welcome to the new era of hollow bowl and NCAA tourney appearances. And we get to pay more than ever for it!!!)

In the first five weeks of this season, do you know how many non-conference Top 25 matchups there are? Two in week 1 (#24Alabama 34 #9Clemson 10 & #6Mizzuruh 52 #20Illinois 42), ZERO THIS WEEK, two in week 3 (the Game of the Year with USC & Ohio State, and also a colossal matchup of USF and Kansas), one in week 4 (Georgia will slaughter Arizona State), and ZERO again in week 5. Let me double check my math here, but I believe that's a grand total of FIVE games in five weeks, and I'd say only two of them (USC/Ohio St and Bama/Clemson) are games I'd even make a point of watching. That's ridiculous.

Everybody wants six wins to go bowling, even if it's just to crappy bowls. There's never been more pressure and more money at stake for coaches and administrations to win, and so they're watering down the system as much as possible. I wish I had some eloquent response to this, but all I can say is that as a college football fan, that sucks. I don't know what the answer is to force teams to schedule tougher, but we need to come up with something. I've always said that college football is to America as hockey is to Canada: it's virtually impossible to kill those sports in those countries, and the people running them know it. The NHL has never, EVER been as poorly run as it is now, and it's never openly ignored the Canadian fan base more than today. And of course, the game has never been more popular in Canada.

Same with college football. No playoff system (and for the record, all I'm asking is for a Final Four. Anything more than that takes too much meaning away from the regular season), cupcake nonconferences, and higher ticket prices than ever. And of course, the game has never been more popular in America. I'm one of those sheep. For all of this complaining, will I be making every effort to watch some college football this weekend? Yes I will.

****

Some other less depressing/whiny random college football thoughts...

...While I hate the SEC's non-conference scheduling, that league is head and shoulders better than everybody else right now. Hell, I think they're tougher than the NFC West at this point! Ok, ok, cheap shot, most high school conferences are tougher than the NFC West. The real question is this: is the gap bigger between the SEC and everybody else as the best conference, or the ACC and the other BCS conferences as the worst? While I will give you more proof than this, this is really all you need to know: Wake Forest is the ACC's best team this year. Let me say that again: WAKE FOREST is the best team in the ACC. I rest my case. Ok fine, here's more: Last week, ACC schools were just 2-4 in games against real schools (aka non 1-AA foes), and one of those wins- Wake over Baylor- shouldn't count because Baylor generally fields a 1-AA quality team.

ESPN.com's Bruce Feldman thinks not only is the ACC the worst BCS conference, it might be worse than the Mountain West! While that's overstating things, it's closer than you might think: true the ACC is deeper in the middle (they have five schools outside the Top 25 getting votes in the polls to the MWC's one), but both have just two ranked teams, and personally I'd rather have the MWC's (BYU and Utah) than the ACC's (Wake and Clemson- who are probably still chaffing from the gigantic deuce they took at midfield of the Georgia Dome last week. How in the name of the beard of Zeus do they stink that badly in a game that big? Oh right, Tommy Bowden is their coach). No matter, be glad you're don't have to watch the ACC this year.

...Sure we're only a week in, but it's never too early to see which coach should start updating the ol' resume:
Dave Wannstedt, Pittburgh- Wanny is a pupil of the Glen Mason School of Scheduling: Start the season with four or five wins against crappy schools, get your fans' hopes up heading into the meat of your schedule- and then lose all the games that count. When he took over the team from Walt Harris in 2004 (whom I'm betting is regretting his move to Stanford), the Panthers had finished ranked #21, and had played in the Fiesta Bowl. Since then, Wannstedt's teams went 5-6 in 2005, 6-6 in 2006 (no bowl game), and 5-7 last year (you guessed it, no bowl games). This year was going to be the year! The Panthers were even ranked to start the season and Wanny and his boys responded...with a loss to Bowling Green. Thanks for coming out, Dave!

I Am Losing My Freaking Mind

2008-09-04T07:36:00.001-07:00

So remember a couple of weeks ago when I picked the Chargers to make the playoffs, and then a week later had to switch because I finally remembered that Norv Turner was their coach (admit it, with the Merriman injury- he is NOT playing the whole season or anywhere close to 100% with a knee that damaged- that pick is looking better and better) I had to change it? Well I've had another football brain fart, although this time it doesn't mean I have to change my picks. In making my NFC predictions, I thought the Vikes were overhyped and Tavaris Jackson and the inexperienced receivers AND the tough schedule would be too much to overcome. Well all of that is fine and good but please answer me this...HOW THE HELL DID I FORGET THAT BRYANT MCKINNIE IS SUSPENDED FOR THE FIRST FOUR GAMES?!?!?!? Goodness gracious I shouldn't be allowed to drive a car or operate heavy machinery. I could hurt myself brushing my teeth at this point!!! Seriously, how did I miss the Vikings being without their starting left tackle for one quarter of the season? If ever there was a reason to NOT pick the Vikings to make the playoffs, it would be that one, and yet I went and found others. Oh well, in spite of my stupidity I somehow look smarter for it.

Speaking of which, things I'm feeling good about as the season starts on tonight (it should start on Sunday and we should have one freaking Monday nighter, but I guess beggers can't be choosers)...

...The Sports Guy had Aaron Schatz author/creator of Football Outsiders on his podcast yesterday (for the uninitiated it's like sabermetrics for football. They're finding new, creative, and more logical statistical ways to examine and predict the game), and he liked some of the same teams I did- although he had a lot better, statistically backed reasons for doing so. Baltimore, Green Bay and Houston were all teams we both think are going to the playoffs, which makes me feel even better about it.

...I'm not feeling as good about the Ravens pick heading into the season now that rookie Joe Flacco is the starting QB because Troy Smith missed time with injury. While the defense should be dominant, they need Smith back, healthy, and functional to make the playoffs.

...Further proof that I'm an idiot is that the one guy I wanted in both of my fantasy football drafts was Calvin Johnson of the Lions, so of course I let him go in both of them. While I am man-crushing on the 6'5 239 pound Megatron, he could have an absolutely monster year.

...My other pick I'm loving more and more is Arizona to win the NFC West now that Kurt Warner is the QB. Statistically (ie for fantasy purposes) he'll be a top 10 QB all year- and yes I actually got him both leagues. Matt Leinart? Like you I'm wondering what the hell happened to him. Pete Carroll said on the Dan Patrick Show last week that he believes Leinart is struggling because he's never had to be the backup, or not "be the guy." This is an interesting point, until you remember Leinart didn't play until he was a redshirt sophomore, meaning he actually was NOT "the guy" for his first two seasons there. Anyway, I have a much longer post coming at some point on young QB's and how we're messing them up in the NFL, but while I believe the Cards' best chance to win this year is definitely with Kurt Warner, I certainly wouldn't give up on Leinart's career yet.

...Ok let's recap the playoff picks, give the Super Bowl winner and other stuff, and then we'll get you on your way:
Playoff Teams (* denotes 1st rd bye)
NFC: New Orleans*, Dallas*, Green Bay, Arizona
Wild cards: Philly and Warshington

AFC: New England*, Pittsburgh*, Indy, Denver
Wild cards: Baltimore and Houston

NFC Championship game: New Orleans over Dallas
AFC Championship game: New England over Indy

Super Bowl: New England over New Orleans

MVP: Tom Brady, Pats
Offensive POY: Drew Brees, New Orleans
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys
Offensive Rookie: Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
Defensive Rookie: Jerod Mayo, LB, Patriots
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton, Saints

Worst Record: Bears
Most Disappointing Team: New York Football Giants
Close Second: Minnesota Vikings
Most Disappointing Player: Brett Favre (he's 39, people!!!)
Close second: Reggie Bush, Saints
Breakout Player: Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos
Close second: Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
First Coach Fired: Mike Nolan, Niners
Finally Hangin 'Em Up: Brett Favre...until he returns...then retires...no wait then he really wants to come back...then he doesn't...until he suddenly-well you get the idea.

The Sky is NOT Falling

2008-09-02T08:11:00.006-07:00

If you've read this blog at all in the past year, you know two things: 1) I need to update it a little more and 2) I'm not a fan of parity. Like at all. And especially when it comes to college football. Last year, with upsets galore and a two loss team playing for the National Championship, while others were loving the "everybody finally has a chance!!" thing, I was thinking it was more of "it's the end of the world as we know it" kind of thing. Say what you want about pro sports, but parity is not good for college football. The Big Boys need to be the Big Boys, and the rest of the college football world needs to step up to win a conference title, rather than having everyone else brought back to the pack.

Again, if you've read me at all, you already know all of this. So I was relieved to see week 1 of the college football season play out as it did, with some blowouts, some upsets, and some overall great games. But more than anything, week one told us that this season, we're going back to normal: we're going to have some surprises and some cinderellas, but we're also going to have some dominant teams and quite possibly two undefeateds playing for the National Title. Here's what we learned and saw from week one:

The Big Boys are Back!!!
Coming into the season, there were a consensus top five old-school power houses that looked to be clearly better than everybody else, and after the first week, that belief held true. While USC was the only one of the five to play on the road against a real school (Virginia WILL go bowling this year!), the top five teams (along with the Men of Troy, #1 Georgia, #2 Ohio State, #4 Oklahoma and #5 Florida) beat their opponents 253-40, for an average score of 51-8. All five destroyed the competition, and looked good doing it (although if Beanie Wells of Ohio State is out for any length of time, the Buckeyes go from Great to Good).

My belief that USC is the best team in the country was also solidified. I know people outside of LA, and especially outside of the PAC 10, are as sick of USC as everybody else is of THE Ohio State, but the Trojans are the real deal, folks. What's more, their defense is now the headliner instead of the offense. QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of the collection of high school All-Americans will be plenty potent (they did put up 558 yards of total offense), the defense has the potential to be one of the best of this decade. In two weeks the Trojans will wallop the Buckeyes in prime time- with or without Beanie Wells.

An Upset that Wasn't An Upset
Utah 25 Michigan 23
More hated than Ohio State or USC could be the Michigan Wolverines. The winningest program of all-time fell on "hard times" (anything in brackets is considered such for Michigan- but the reason they're hated is that such "hardships" would be gladly taken by about 105 other D-1 programs) last year with a shocking loss to Appalachian State at the Big House, leading to a "disappointing" season and the ousting of head coach Lloyd Carr. New coach Rich Rodriguez brought in a new system, which smart people knew would take some time to work, considering he doesn't have a QB on the roster capable of running it (further salt in the wound for the Maize and Blue was seeing uber-spread QB recruit Terrelle Pryor run for 52 yards and a score and complete 4 of 6 six passes for 35 more in the Buckeye win. Think he would have helped Michigan a wee bit?). All of this is to say that Utah's 25-23 victory over the Wolverines was just that- a win, NOT an upset. The Wolverines were only favored by three points, and if Michigan wasn't Michigan, they wouldn't have been favored at all. The Wolverines will be lucky to go bowling this year, while Utah could be very well be BCS-Busters. If you hate Michigan, this is the year for you.

Upsets that Were Actually Upsets...or were They?
#24 Alabama 34 #9 Clemson 10
If USC had the biggest statement game in week one, then Alabama was a close second. Nick Saban might be closer to bringing the Tide back to glory than we thought, as Bama rolled right over poor Tommy Bowden and Clemson. The Tide's D held Clemson's supposedly vaunted rushing attack (backs James Davis and CJ Spiller were supposed to be the nation's best combo) to zero yards rushing (Davis and Spiller combined for 20 yards on 8 carries. Be glad you're not Tommy Bowden right now), while Bama's offense, which was starting a lot of youngsters at the skill positions around senior QB John Parker Wilson, exploded for 239 rushing and 180 passing. While there's still a LONG way to go this season, including a usually-brutal SEC schedule, Alabama could win the West division this season and play for the conference title. Say all the negative things you want about Saban (and deservedly so), but the man can coach AND recruit.

UCLA 27 #18 Tennessee 24 OT
I was driving back from Milwaukee last night, so I did not see a single down of this one, which for the first three quarters was probably a good thing. Nothing like a nationally-televised snoozer for the folks at ABC...well at least until the fourth quarter. Suddenly the Bruins found a QB, both offenses found a life, and we had an exciting finish with the Bruins upsetting the Vols at the Rose Bowl. From what I had seen, heard, and read from pundits and experts alike, UCLA was supposed to be lucky to win five games this season. Probably time to change that thinking. The Bruins D was impressive, and if Craft can continue to run the offense like he did in the second half (193 yards and a TD) instead of the first (4 picks!!), the Bruins will be right in the mix for Distant Second in the Pac 10.

East Carolina 27 #17 Virginia Tech 22
This was the upset pick of the week for just about everybody, so it wasn't real surprising to see it come true. I have no idea if the Pirates will be any good this year, but I do know it's going to be a Loooooonnnnggggg year for Virginia Tech. Hell, it's going to be a long year for anybody who has to watch the ACC: In games against real teams (aka NOT 1-AA) this past week, the conference went 2-4 (and Wake Forest's win shouldn't count since Baylor fields a 1-AA level team every year). As for the other two "upsets" I think both Alabama and UCLA will finish higher in the polls at the end of the year than the teams they beat.

Dare to Compare

2008-08-29T08:18:00.004-07:00

Happy Labor Day Weekend everybody (or as they'd say in Canada "Labour" Day). Whatever you're off to do and enjoy, when you get back to start your work week next Tuesday, we'll officially be into September. Can you believe it's September already? Yeah, me neither. Well here in Twins Town, fans of the Little Engine That Could are gearing up for what should be a great pennant race for the Hometown 9 as we enter the final month. Heading into the weekend, the Twins are chasing Soxes (since Sox isn't a real word, I'm taking the liberty of pluralizing it how I damn well please): a game and a half behind the White Sox for first place in the division, and two and a half games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card. This weekend will also feature a Battle of the Soxes as the teams play three games at Fenway Pawk (the teams have split their four previous meetings at Comiskey/US Cellular/Not Wrigley) The Yankees, at 6 back of Boston, are still mathematically in the race, but I don't think anybody outside of the Bronx believes they're going to make much of a run (hell at this point I'm not sure anyone in the Bronx thinks so either).

A Yankee-less postseason? Could the Red Sox join them? ESPN.com has an added feature in their baseball standings run by coolstandings.com, which has a crazy mathematical formula for giving each team odds of making the playoffs. Right now, the Red Sox lead this group of four with an 86.1%, the South Siders have a 62.4% shot, the "Best Team Carl Pohlad Can Buy with the Spare Change in His Couch" has a 49.3% chance, and the Yankees are sitting at just 3%. If you don't mind, I'm going to go ahead and take the Pinstripers out of this equation, because it's been a long time since we've been able to do that. However, enjoy your non-Yankee post season while you can, because with almost $90 million coming off the books after this year (from the expiring contracts of Bobby Abrea, Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite, Pudge Rodriquez and Kyle Farnsworth. And that $90 million, which is $30 million more than the Twins payroll, is not from the life of those contracts- that's just $90 million from the 2008 season!!!) I'm going to guarantee that the Yanks sign Brewers ace CC Sabathia, AND quite possibly Angels first baseman Mark Teixiera or Ben Sheets. For fun, and because Hank Steinbrenner wants to prove he's just as crazy as his old man, they could get all three. So seriously, enjoy the one year hiatus of the Darth Vaders, because they'll be back next year.

Alrighty then, three teams for two spots with one month to play. Here's how they stack up:

Minnesota Twins: 75-59 (.667 winning% at home .446 road) +65 Run differential, Games Back Div 1.5 Wild Card 2.5
Offense: RUNS 672 (6th in AL) AVG .278 (3rd in AL) OBP .337 (7) SLG .409 (9)
Pitching: ERA 4.15 (7) BAA .275 (12) K/BB 2.45 (3)
Defense: Defensive Efficiency: 0.694 (10th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning %: .469
... Games against the Soxes: White (3) Red (0)
... Games against other Winning Teams: 7
... Home Games: 12
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 @ Oakland (62-72)- Twins are 3-4 against the A's this year
Sep 2-4 @ Toronto (68-65)- 0-3 vs Jays
Sep 5-7 vs Detroit (64-69)- 10-5 vs Tiggers
Sep 9-11 vs Kansas City (56-77)- 8-3 vs Royals
Sep 12-14 @ Baltimore (63-70)- 1-2 vs O's
Sep 15-17 @ Cleveland (65-67)- 10-5 vs Tribe
Sep 18-21 @ Tampa Bay (81-51)- 1-1 vs Rays
Sep 23-25 VS CHICAGO (76-57)- 7-8 vs White Sox
Sep 26-28 vs Kansas City (56-77)- 8-3 vs Royals

Chicago White Sox: 76-57 (.676 home .462 road), +108 Diff, GB div 1st WC 1.0
Offense: Runs 735 (2) AVG .268 (7), OBP .340 (5), SLG .458 (2)
Pitching: ERA 3.89 (5) BAA .256 (5) K/BB 2.53 (2)
Defense: DefEff: .701 (6th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning %: .520
... Games against: Twins (3) Red Sox (3)
... Games against other winning teams: 10
... Home Games: 13
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 @ BOSTON (77-56)- 2-2 vs Red Sox
Sep 1-3 @ Cleveland (65-67)- 9-3 vs Tribe
Sep 5-7 vs Anaheim (81-52)- 3-4 vs the Halos
Sep 8-11 vs Toronto (68-65)- 0-4 vs "Canada's Team"
Sep 12-14 vs Detroit (64-69)- 9-6 vs the Teegreys
Sep 15-18 @ New York (71-62)- 1-2 vs the Goliaths
Sep 19-21 @ Kansas City (56-77)- 10-5 vs Royals
Sep 23-25 @ MINNESOTA (75-59)- 8-7 vs the Little Engine That Could
Sep 26-28 vs Cleveland (65-67)- 9-3 vs the Ricky Vaughn's

Boston Red Sox: 77-56 (.705 home .472 road) +122 Run Diff, GB Div 4.5 WC Leader
Offense: Runs 690 (3) AVG .281(1) OBP .358(1) SLG .446(3)
Pitching: ERA 4.00 (6) BAA .250 (4) K/BB 2.08 (8)
Defense: .706 (4th)
Remaining... Opponents Winning%: .534
... Games against: Twins (0) White Sox (3)
... Games against other winning teams: 16!!!
... Home Games: 19 games (to counter all the winning teams)
... Schedule:
Aug 29-31 vs CHICAGO (76-57)- 2-2 vs Pale Hoes
Sep 1-3 vs Baltimore (63-70)- 9-6 vs O's
Sep 5-7 @ Texas (66-69)- 7-0 vs Rangers
Sep 8-10 vs Tampa Bay (81-51)- 6-6 vs Rays
Sep 12-14 vs Toronto (68-65)- 4-7 vs Centre of the Universes
Sep 15-17 @ Tampa Bay (81-51)- 6-6 vs Rays
Sep 19-21 @ Toronto (68-65)- 4-7 vs Metric Morons
Sep 22-25 vs Cleveland (65-67)- 2-0 vs the Pedro Cerano's
Sep 26-28 vs New York (71-62)- 8-7 vs the Playing out the Strings

Ok first of all, what's with the Blue Jays absolutely owning these three teams? The Twinkies and Chisox are a combined 0-7, while the Red Sox are just 4-7 against them. That's metric domination right there, my friends. Toronto will have a HEE-YUGE say in who's in this race, as they'll play everybody one more series, and just for fun twice against the BoSox. Cleveland also gets everybody once, while Tampa will dust up the Twins for a series, and play 6 more vs the Red Sox.

Hard to pick a favorite here, which is why the Soxes have better odds than the Twins because making up ground over the next month is going to be difficult. The Twins have the advantage of the easiest remaining schedule, but I think we can all agree that if Minnesota can stay close, the division, and probably the Twins playoff chances, come down to the three game series with Chicago at the end of September. As for this weekend, I'd be cheering for a Red Sox sweep, because despite Boston's tough schedule (and possible issues with ace Josh Beckett), I still believe it'll be easier to catch Chicago than Boston.

Is Daunte Culpepper Being Blackballed?

2008-08-27T08:12:00.002-07:00

Mike Florio of the outstanding ProFootballTalk.com asked this very question yesterday. Florio, who's about as plugged into the league as it gets, isn't sure why it would be happening, but had one NFL executive tell him Culpepper is, indeed being blackballed. However, Florio wonders if because Daunte has no agent that other agents are badmouthing him to teams. Peter King, in his MMQB Mailbag, doesn't think he's being blackballed, but when you look at some of the QB situations around the league right now, it sure seems fishy that Daunte couldn't find a backup job somewhere.

In fact, SI's Don Banks ranks the backup QB's for every team in the league. Look at that list: isn't Daunte better than pretty much EVERYBODY listed there? Since he got hurt and completely fell apart in Minnesota in 2005, Daunte has has QB ratings of 72, 77, and 77. Not great, but not horrible either. His completion percentages the last three years has been 64.4, 60.4, and 58.4. Anything over 60% is considered good in the NFL, and Daunte's been right around there. His one failing has been INT's, as he's thrown 20 picks to just 13 TD's (he has run for 5 more) in his last 17 starts. Still, look up the numbers for some of the current starters and backups in the league right now, and Daunte is a MUCH better option. Hell, Trent Green in St Louis is listed as the 7th best backup, JP Losman- who has done NOTHING in the league so far- 9th, and 10th is the horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE Rex Grossman in Chicago. DAUNTE IS BETTER THAN ALL OF THOSE GUYS!!!!

Florio wonders if Daunte's whining in Minnesota and Miami is hurting his reputation, which would make the most sense of anything, but it still doesn't explain to me why he can't find at least a backup job somewhere right now. Will be interesting to see if he can find a job this year.

The 1st Annual Over/Under NFL Wins Confidence Challenge

2008-08-26T07:35:00.003-07:00

An excellent blog about sports betting and other sports stuff called Vegas Watch is having an "NFL Totals" contest to see who can most accurately pick the over/unders on 2008 NFL win totals that Vegas puts out. I thought it'd be fun to have a Metric Musings challenge, where everybody submits the 10 over/unders you're MOST confident in. In fact, we can even do confidence points: Give 10 to the pick you're most confident about, and if you're right at the end of the year, you get 10 points, 9 for your next pick etc. etc. all the way down to 1. The winner at the end of the year gets a beer, or your drink of choice, on me (for Joel, you could get a 12 pack of Cherry cokes or something). so submit your 10 picks in the comments section, and at season's end we'll see who did the best.

Before I get to that, though, I'll give my last 3 playoff teams for the NFC, since I forgot to do it earlier: the Saints win the NFC South, the Cardinals the NFC West, and the Eagles take the final wild card spot.

And yes, I realize that I excluded the Vikings from the playoffs. That was not an accident. Every year there's a trendy team who the media seem to think is going to jump from pretender to contender. Last year it was the Niners. The year before it was Arizona. This year, unfortunately, it's the Vikings, and as much as I'd love to watch my beloved Purple in the playoffs, there's still too many questions about Tavaris Jackson, the wide receivers, and the pass defense to give the Vikes a playoff spot.

Ok then, on with the over/unders. Here's the whole list of all 32 teams, with my choices beside it. I'll give my 10 best at the end. Again, Vegas puts out a projected win total for each NFL team. Your job is to pick whether they'll finish with more or less wins. Feel free to play along at home.

NFC
North
Chicago, 8 wins- UNDER!!!!
Detroit, 6- over
Green Bay, 8.5- over (barely)
Minnesota, 8.5- under (barely)

South
Atlanta 4.5- over (barely)
Carolina, 7.5- under
New Orleans, 8.5- OVER!!!
Tampa Bay, 8- under

East
Dallas, 10.5- over
New York Football Giants, 9- under
Philadelphia, 8.5- over
Washington, 7.5- over

West
Arizona, 7.5- over
St Louis, 6.5- under
San Francisco, 6.5- under
Seattle, 8.5- under

IF GAMBLING WERE LEGAL...
best under bet- Bears at 8. That's the easiest money on the board right there.
best over bet- Saints at 8.5. To me they're clearly the best team in that division.
toughest pick- Buccaneers at 8. While I don't think the Bucs repeat as division champs I still think they'll be decent. 9 wins seems like too much, and 7 not enough so of course Vegas puts the number right at 8.

AFC
North
Baltimore, 6- OVER!!!!
Cincinnati, 7.5- under
Cleveland, 8- under
Pittsburgh, 9- over

South
Houston, 7.5- over
Indianapolis, 11- under
Jacksonville, 10- under
Tennessee, 8- under

East
Buffalo, 8- under
Miami, 5.5- over
New England, 12.5- over
New York Jets, 8- under

West
Denver, 7.5- over
Kansas City, 6- under
Oakland, 6.5- over
San Diego- 10.5- under

IF GAMBLING WERE LEGAL...
best under bet- Powder Blues at 10.5. I'm surprised this hasn't changed with Merriman's knee injury announcement. Or like me (at first), has everyone forgotten Norv Turner is still the coach there?
best over bet- Ravens at 6. Just edges out the Steelers line. Of course you know I'm rather bullish on the Ravens.
toughest pick- Toronto Bills at 8. Just like Tampa Bay Tampa Bay, 8 seems like the perfect number for the Buffalo/Torontos. I think they're a playoff contender but if I'm predicting them to miss the playoffs, 9 wins seems like one too many.

There you have it. Leave your 10 best in the comments section and we'll see what happens.

Dream Team vs. Redeem Team: You've Got to be Kidding Me

2008-08-24T20:50:00.005-07:00

"Redeem Team proves worthy of Dream Team comparison" That's the headline of an espn.com article today by hoops scribe Chris Sheridan (who has covered basketball at the Olympics since 1996), and it seems to be the running theme on the interweb today: everybody wants to compare the 1992 Dream Team to the current "Redeem Team" that just have a great run to win Olympic gold.

So my question is: why? There IS no comparison to the Dream Team, and in trying to compare the current guys, all you're going to do is diminish what they've done. Why not just appreciate what LeBron and Kobe and the rest did in restoring basketball glory for America. But no, this is the age of the internet and 24 hour news and sports networks and, of course, blogs, so you do what you can to get ratings and readers. Today, apparently that means making a comparison where there isn't one. ESPN certainly weren't the only ones to do it. The folks over at si.com gave it a whirl too, as the wiley vet Jack McCallum (who's one of the best and most knowledgable hoops writers out there) pulled rank and took the Dream Team side, while poor Chris Mannix got stuck doing the impossible- trying to argue that the Redeem Team even belonged on the same court. Foxsports.com has their take on it, and so on and so forth. Read any or all of these and the thing you notice is nobody really tries that hard to say the Redeem Team is anywhere near as good as the Dream Team (well except Mannix, but I'm guessing he drew the short straw s it wasn't really his choice). Sheridan's article gives a side-by-side comparison of how the teams did in the Olympics, and as you can see, it's not close.

Well me being me, I decided we needed to see some more stats to prove just how ridiculous an argument this is, and thanks to the folks at basketball-reference.com, we can do that. So we took the stats for each player (well excluding Christian Laettner because he sucks and he was the token white guy pretty boy and he never played and it was a joke he was even on the team. And also because he sucks) in the season leading into the Olympics they played in (1991-92 for the Dream Teamers, 2007-08 for the current squad). We'll use points per game and John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating or PER (which according to John "The PER sums up all of a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance." For a really "mathy"-yep I just made up the word mathy. Deal with it- explanation go here) for everybody, and then a few position specific stats. Should be fun. Should be really one-sided. Just like how the game would be.

DREAM TEAM

Starting Lineup
G- Magic
G- MJ
F- Bird
F- Barkley
C- Ewing

Crunchtime Lineup
G- Magic
G- MJ
F- Pippen
F- Barkley
C- Robinson (look at the numbers- he's clearly better than Ewing)

POINT GUARDS
Magic Johnson (stats from 90-91 season because he didn't play in 91-92), age 32, 19.4 PTS, 12.5 AST, 7.0 REB, 1.3 STL, 25.1 PER
John Stockton, age 29, 15.8 PTS, 13.7 AST, 3.0 STL, 40.7% 3pt, 22.8 PER

SHOOTING GUARDS
Michael Jordan, age 28, 30.1 PTS, 6.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 6.4 REB, 27.7 PER
Clyde Drexler, age 29, 25 PTS, 6.7 AST, 6.6 REB, 1.8 STL, 23.6 PER

SMALL FORWARDS
Larry Bird, age 35, 20.2 PPG, 9.6 REB, 6.8 AST, 40.6% 3pt, 21 PER
Scottie Pippen, age 26, 21 PTS, 7.7 REB, 7.0 AST, 1.9 STL, 21.5 PER
Chris Mullin, age 28, 25.6 PTS, 5.6 REB, 3.5 AST, 2.1 STL, 19.9 PER

POWER FORWARDS
Charles Barkley, age 28, 23.1 PTS, 11.1 REB, 4.1 AST, 24.5 PER
Karl Malone, age 28, 28.0 PTS, 11.2 REB, 3.0 AST, 25.4 PER

CENTERS
Patrick Ewing, age 29, 24 PTS, 11.2 REB, 3.0 BLK, 22.8 PER
David Robinson, age 26, 23.2 PTS, 12.2 REB, 4.5 BLK, 2.3 STL, 27.5 PER

REDEEM TEAM

Starting Lineup
G- Kidd
G- Kobe
F- BronBron
F- Melo
C- Howard

Crunchtime Lineup
G- Paul
G- Wade
F- Kobe
F- Global Icon
C- Bosh

POINT GUARDS
Jason Kidd, age 34, 10.8 PTS, 10.1 AST, 1.7 STL, 7.5 REB, 16.7 PER
Chris Paul, age 22, 21.1 PTS, 11.6 AST, 2.7 STL, 3.2 REB, 28.3 PER
Deron Williams, age 23, 18.8 PTS, 10.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 3.0 REB, 20.8 PER

SHOOTING GUARDS
Kobe Bryant, age 29, 28.3 PTS, 5.4 AST, 6.4 REB, 1.8 STL, 24.2 PER
Dwyane Wade, age 26, 24.6 PTS, 6.9 AST, 3.3 REB, 1.7 STL, 21.5 PER
Michael Redd, age 28, 22.7 PTS, 3.4 AST, 4.3 REB, 18.8 PER

SMALL FORWARDS
LeBron James, age 23, 30.0 PTS, 7.9 REB, 7.2 AST, 1.8 STL, 29.1 PER
Carmelo Anthony, age 23, 25.7 PTS, 7.4 REB, 3.4 AST, 1.3 STL, 21.1 PER
Tayshaun Prince, age 27, 13.2 PTS, 4.9 REB, 3.3 AST, 0.5 STL, 15.6 PER

POWER FORWARD
Chris Bosh, age 23, 22.3 PTS, 8.7 REB, 1.0 BLK, 2.6 AST, 23.8 PER
Carlos Boozer, age 26, 21.1 PTS, 10.4 REB, 1.2 STL, 2.9 AST, 21.9 PER

CENTER
Dwight Howard, age 22, 20.7 PTS, 14.2 REB, 2.1 BLK, 0.9 STL, 22.9 PER

BREAKING IT DOWN:
POINT GUARDS:
All the Dream Team had to offer were the best point guards of all-time. No big deal really. While Magic had sat out the 91-92 season because he had the HIV virus (remember when that was a big deal? I'm not trying to make light of the AIDS virus, but in 1992 this was like 120000 times more scary than terrorism. Now? Do we ever hear anything about AIDS in the news anymore? Weird. Good work science for handling that one. Makes you wonder what we'll look back on 16 years from now and think "That was news? Really?"), he was still damn good in the Olympics, while Stockton was hitting his prime in all its short-short glory.
Redeem Team offers two good young points who are good and are going to be great, and one Jason Kidd who should not be on this team. Don't get me wrong, Kidd'll go down as one of the five best points ever (he wouldn't be in MY five best, mind you, but for the national media? Oh fo sho!), but to call him a shell of his former self would be a black mark on shells everywhere. There's at least 5 other American point guards who are better than he is right now.
ADVANTAGE: Dream Team in a landslide

SHOOTING GUARDS:
The two funnest things about this game: 1) watching MJ vs Kobe. 2)Watching all 12 guys on the Dream Team try to guard LeBron at different portions of the game and watching 0.00% have success (hell he might be able to score on all 12 at once. Have I mentioned he's now 6'9 260? And possibly still growing? Just checking). The MJ vs Kobe battle would be one of the few sports moments we'd dub as epic that would actually BE epic! You have to think that nothing would please the 1992 Michael Jordan more than out and out destroying Kobe Bryant. I mean making him cry for his mommy kind of destruction. And America in general would rejoice at watching Kobe be humbled (except of course Kobe wouldn't be humbled and would make excuses or fake an injury and then give another awkward Kobe post-game interview in his best MJ-voice on why he didn't get schooled). It's just crazy to think that if Kobe is the second best player on this team (after Kobe's stink bomb in the Finals, we're all in agreeance he cannot be the league's best player right now, correct? We'll give that one to BronBron? Agreed? Good), that means he's a damn good player, and yet MJ is just so much better in every single aspect. It's astounding really. It just blew my mind.

Oh sure there's other good players here and good matchups, like Dwyane Wade (every time I see the spelling of "Dwyane" I'm angered that nobody at the hospital in Chicago where he was born had the stones to tell his mom "Look, that's not how it's spelled. I don't care if you're trying to be original or different, that's just plain stupid to spell it that way. Spell it correctly or get a different name." Really, would it have been that hard to do that?) vs Clyde Drexler. Or Michael Redd vs...um, yeah not sure who Michael Redd wouldn't get worked over by. Maybe have him play one of the women's Olympic players (by the way, can we stop calling the women's team the Dream Team? Nobody dreams of women's basketball. Nobody. Not even women's basketball players). By the way, just thought this was a good time to remind Bucks fans that there's only another three years and $51 million to go before you're free of Michael Redd! Let the countdown begin!
ADVANTAGE: Dream Team

SMALL FORWARDS
So LeBron is pretty good. He has the highest PER of anybody here, and has stats just as gaudy as MJ- only he's still just 23. You're fooling yourself if you wouldn't take him over a 35 year old Bird, or Pippen or Mullin in the primes. Heck, other than Jordan, is there anyone else listed here you'd rather take than LeBron? Me neither. After him, clearly Bird and Pippen are better than Melo, and maybe even Mullin too. Like Mike Redd and Jason Kidd, I'm not sure why Tayshaun is even on the team. So who then gets the advantage? The Dream Team has more depth and quality players, so I guess it comes down to this: who would you rather have? LeBron and Melo, or Bird, Pippen AND Mullin?
ADVANTAGE: Redeem Team (come on like you didn't make the same decision!)

POWER FORWARDS
We'll keep these next two positions short and sweet since there's really not much to say: hmmmm would you rather have two first ballot hall-of-famers, or two all-star level post players? Yes? You in the back? The hall-of-famers? Correct!
ADVANTAGE: Dream Team (if the point guards was a landslide, what's this, an avalanche?)

CENTERS
More than any other area, you can see how much the game has changed in the last 16 years at center. Bosh played a lot of time here during the Olympics, but I'd still call him a forward, yet I think the most telling thing is that USA brought just 3 guys out of their 12 who would be considered low-post players, and one of them, Boozer, hardly ever played. Not only that, but Bosh and Howard were rarely on the floor together. For the Dream Team, you always had either Ewing or Robinson on the floor, along with Barkley, and/or Malone. Another thing that makes it tough on the Redeemers is that Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Amare Stoudamire all decided to stay home. Had those three made the trip I think this very well could have tipped things in the Redeemers' favor, but since we're just talking about the Olympic teams themselves and not who the best NBA players were at the time, you have to leave TD, KG, and Amare out. So really, this isn't a fair comparison considering how the Redeem Team chose their team, but hey, this hasn't really been a fair comparison to begin with, now has it?
ADVANTAGE: Dream Team

So there you have it, it's the Dream Team in a runaway. While I think this would be a very entertaining game, I think the Dream Team would win by at least 20. I do think the "Crunchtime" lineups listed about would create some very interesting matchups, but the problem is I don't think we'd ever get to Crunchtime with much to play for. So there you have it, trying to say the Redeem Team could beat the Dream Team is pointless, baseless, and is just plain wrong. But hey, it won't stop all the other websites from trying to tell you otherwise.